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VMT Growth Rates Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) versus Gasoline Sales. Transportation Work Group Phase III - Meeting 3 February 25, 2004. 410-569-0599 www.meszler.com. Transportation Plan 2020 - HPMS.

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VMT Growth RatesHighway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) versus Gasoline Sales

Transportation Work Group

Phase III - Meeting 3

February 25, 2004

410-569-0599

www.meszler.com

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Transportation Plan 2020 - HPMS

“The most recent 10 years of HPMS data was evaluated and an average yearly growth rate was calculated. This average yearly growth rate was 2.0828 percent.” (Appendix A)

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Regression Results (RI Data)

Linear trends are tied to a base year (e.g., a 1970-2000 linear trend means that the annual VMT change is X percent of 1970 VMT, not X percent of the preceding year VMT).

Page 3

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Regression Results (FHwA Data)

Linear trends are tied to a base year (e.g., a 1970-2000 linear trend means that the annual VMT change is X percent of 1970 VMT, not X percent of the preceding year VMT).

Page 4

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10 Year Period HPMS Growth Rates

Annual rates dropped below 2 percent in the late 1990’s, bottoming out in the 10 year period ending 1998.

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11 Year Period HPMS Growth Rates

Annual rates dropped below 2 percent in the late 1990’s, still exhibiting a small decline through the 11year period ending 2000.

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Summary

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Conclusions

  • Trends are in pretty reasonable agreement given the cursory level of analysis.
    • Factors such as changing fuel efficiency, offroad equipment gasoline sales, through-travel/refueling effects, etc. are likely to explain differences.
  • Initial concern over large discrepancy between gasoline sales and HPMS trends appears to be unfounded, but likelihood of negligible future VMT growth also doubtful.

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