Gretchen E. Garniss Fulbright Scholar Jagiellonian University

1. How Real Estate and Social Changes Are Driving the Creation of Independent Senior Housing in Poland Gretchen E. Garniss Fulbright Scholar Jagiellonian University Institute of Economics and Management

2. Introduction • The senior population in Poland will be the largest growing demographic over the next 25 years. • This population is living longer, healthier and is more active over a longer period of time. • Demographic and cultural shifts in Polish society are fueling demand for a new type of housing for seniors. • Changing family dynamics are encouraging alternative living options. • The state of housing (over the last 50 years) has a direct affect on current housing issues. • Current senior housing options are not meeting the needs of this growing population. • Seniors are rethinking how and where they want to spend their later years. • This new type of housing can provide economic and social benefits across a wide spectrum.

3. DEMOGRAPHY 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Population: Age 0 - 14 (%) 25.5 25.1 22.9 20.5 19.7 20.4 20.7 20.4 19.7 Population: Age 65 + (%) 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.7 11.9 11.4 12.6 14.6 16.4 Urban population (000s) 22,314 23,570 24,543 25,389 26,331 27,367 28,383 29,268 30,022 Rural population (000s) 14,889 14,549 14,014 13,337 12,669 12,019 11,350 10,642 9,950 Urbanization level(%) 60.0 61.8 63.7 65.6 67.5 69.5 71.4 73.3 75.1 Household total number (000s) 12,243 12,970 13,800 14,432 14,853 15,345 15,946 16,618 1985 - 1990 1990 - 1995 1995 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2025 Life expectancy at birth: M (yrs) 66.9 66.7 66.7 67.7 68.7 69.7 70.6 71.7 Life expectancy at birth: F (yrs) 75.4 75.7 75.7 76.5 77.3 78.1 78. 6 79.1 Total population growth rate (%) 0.49 0.23 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.18 0.09 0.03 Urban population growth rate (%) 1.10 0.81 0.68 0.73 0.77 0.73 0.61 0.51 Rural population growth rate (%) - 0.46 - 0.75 - 0.99 - 1.03 - 1.05 - 1.15 - 1.29 - 1.34 Introduction Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20050309092014/http://www.unhabitat.org/habrdd/conditions/easteurope/poland.htm

4. Introduction Men Women Table: Demographic Research, Volume 17 Article 11, Nov. 2007, page 302

5. Goal of My Research • Show that due to a confluence of social, cultural and economic factors, the need for this new type of senior housing is necessary. • Seniors are willing to move to this type of housing were it to be provided – changing traditional cultural mores of intergenerational care and living. • Seniors are changing how they want to spend the rest of their lives. These changes will have long term social and economic effects. • Government expenditures/allocations on social and medical programs will be less since seniors will need those services later in life.

6. Housing In Poland Current Housing Situation The significance of housing is stressed by numerous laws and legal documents including the Constitution of the Republic of Poland. Article 75 clause 1 of the Constitution commits the public authorities to carry out a policy which should: “satisfy housing needs of the citizens, and particularly to combat homelessness, promote development of social housing and support citizens’ actions aimed at acquisition of a dwelling by each citizen”.

7. Housing In Poland Current Housing Situation, continued • Housing development has four aspects • individual – it satisfies one of the basic human needs – the need of shelter and also enables to start and raise a family; • social – it forms the base for essential community ties; • material – its products form an important element of family, community and state wealth; • economic – it is one of the most important ways of economic development, creating work places, technical infrastructure and a base for social infrastructure. • Affects number of marriages and children born

8. Housing In Poland Current Housing Situation, continued • 3 basic categories of Polish housing units • Pre-war – older systems, not energy efficient, expensive to maintain • Post war – Socialist construction, quantity over quality, 1/3 population lives in these structures • Polish modern – quality, expensive, not geared for seniors

9. Housing In Poland – Current Multi-Family Inventory Pre-War Post War Modern

10. Housing In Poland Current Housing Situation, continued Past housing development affecting current housing issues. • Small units • Not energy efficient • Overcrowding • Below average condition • Maintenance issues • Economic and social costs

11. Housing In Poland Current Housing Situation, continued For seniors costs • age/maintenance of unit • mobility issues • utilities • health costs of living in substandard unit

12. Families and Seniors • Traditionally family cares for seniors • Duty of care – legal and religious concept • Families not living as close together as previous generations • Time, money, space issues with families • Seniors do not want to live with their adult children • Economic issues with duties of care

13. Families and Seniors Nursing homes – expensive, 24/7 care Social housing – income issues, competing with other tenancies Families – not close, over crowding Alternatives?

14. Families and Seniors At left, renovated single nursing home unit in Kraków. At right, single nursing home unit in Gdansk.

15. Literature/Theory - Issues • Challenging as this is a new and evolving field of research and information is constantly being discovered. • Existing information is not consistent in collecting, reporting. • How housing can affect quality of life. Costs associated with it. • Creation of original research/data - four cities in Poland.

16. Theory Housing Theory Building on the lines of thought of neoclassical theory, ample empirical evidence suggests that housing as an economic good responds to market forces in a manner similar to that of other commodities. Yet, housing does not deliver only one good as it features a wide array of characteristics, including durability, spatial fixity, and heterogeneity. Moreover, there is extensive involvement of government with the argument of housing as a basic need for all households. Therefore, there are reasons to argue that it is impossible to analyze housing decisions within the framework of the neoclassical theory of supply and demand without modification. * * Dübel, Hans Joachim; Brzeski, W. Jan; Hamilton, Ellen. “Rental Choice and Housing Policy Realignment in Transition: Post-privatization Challenges in the Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3884, April 2006, annex 1.

17. Theory Tenure Choice Theory – Socioeconomic Approach Tenure choice involves a deeper interplay of socioeconomic characteristics of households and supply-demand conditions in the housing market (Clark and Dieleman 1996). For example Deurloo et al. (1987) claim that tenure choice is affected by demographic factors through changing socioeconomic status rather than through the life cycle alone. Age, family size, and family composition are significant factors affecting tenure choice (Deurloo et al. 1987). * * Dübel, Hans Joachim; Brzeski, W. Jan; Hamilton, Ellen. “Rental Choice and Housing Policy Realignment in Transition: Post-privatization Challenges in the Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3884, April 2006, annex 1.

18. Forces Driving Alternatives in Senior Housing • Economics • Family expenditures • Government expenditures • Higher costs for medical and social care • Culture • Families as primary care givers is changing • Negative perception of families’ care for older members changing • Stigma of not being able to care is changing • Social • Seniors are healthier than previous generation • Living longer and are more active than previous generation • Independence is important to seniors and their overall health

19. Conclusions • Demographics show significantly increasing number of seniors over the next 25 years • Seniors are living longer and healthier than in previous generation • Three existing senior housing choices is not meeting needs • Family dynamics are changing enabling new housing options to be considered and developed • Keeping seniors independent longer puts less stress on current systems • Seniors are willing to move to these units designed with their needs in mind.

20. Thank you for your attention gretchen.garniss@uj.edu.pl