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Quality-adjusted Output Measure for the Scottish Education System. Richard Murray Economic Adviser Scottish Executive. Structure of Presentation. Section 1: Background Structure of the Scottish Education System Context for the work Section 2: Quality-adjusted Output Index

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quality adjusted output measure for the scottish education system

Quality-adjusted Output Measure for the Scottish Education System

Richard Murray

Economic Adviser

Scottish Executive

structure of presentation
Structure of Presentation
  • Section 1: Background
    • Structure of the Scottish Education System
    • Context for the work
  • Section 2: Quality-adjusted Output Index
  • Section 3: Concluding Remarks
    • Limitations of the New Measure
    • Summary
structure of scottish education system
Structure of Scottish Education System
  • Different education system in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK
  • Primary education:
    • 7 years of education (P1 to P7)
    • 2,184 schools & 382,783 pupils
  • Secondary education:
    • 6 years of education (S1 to S6)
    • Compulsory to S4
    • 381 schools & 312,979 pupils
structure of scottish education system1
Structure of Scottish Education System
  • Comprehensive system
  • Examinations sat in final three years of secondary education (S4, S5 & S6)
  • No national testing before S4
context to this work
Context to this Work
  • Atkinson Review
    • Specific recommendations for education
      • Improve the way we record inputs
      • Move towards an output-based approach
      • Develop measures to track changes in quality of output
      • Extend coverage across whole of UK
rationale for adjusting for quality
Rationale for Adjusting for Quality

Why adjust for quality?

  • To capture improvements in the education pupils receive

How do you measure quality?

  • Ideally, the quality of teaching pupils receive
  • Difficult to measure this, though attainment provides a useful proxy
differentiating output by attainment
Differentiating Output by Attainment
  • Aim to capture wide spectrum of attainment a pupil receives by end of secondary education
  • 3 categories which capture all levels of attainment at school
weighting the different levels of attainment
Weighting the Different Levels of Attainment
  • Each category of attainment needs to be given a weight, relative to its contribution to total output
  • Inappropriate to use cost weights
  • Expected future earnings provides a proxy for the benefit pupils receive from education
expected future earnings by highest qualification
Expected Future Earnings by Highest Qualification
  • Results show that higher qualifications lead to higher expected future earnings
  • Weightings of 48: 32: 20 for Categories 1: 2: 3

Expected future earnings =

Average earnings by highest qualification

Employment rate by highest qualification

X

quality adjusted output index
Quality-adjusted Output Index

Methodology

Step 1: Differentiate S6 pupils by attainment

Step 2: Apply a weight (based on expected future earnings) to the attainment categories

Step 3: Calculate the weighted total & convert to index

quality adjusted output for education
Quality-adjusted Output for Education
  • Only measures the output of one year group (i.e. S6)
  • Apply the differentiated output across all pupils in primary & secondary education
  • This assumes quality will be the same for each year group
pupils gaining no qualifications
Pupils Gaining No Qualifications
  • Believe this group should not have a positive impact on the quality dimension of output
  • Still captured in the quantity dimension of the quality-adjusted output
sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
  • Examined different combinations of qualifications
  • Applied different weights by attributing part of the future earnings associated with those who go on to university
  • Overall, little impact on quality-adjusted output index
limitations of new measure
Limitations of New Measure
  • Unable to track changes in quality across each year group
  • Will take a number of years before investment influences the measure
  • Wider benefits of education are excluded
  • Possibly not giving enough weight to high attainment category
summary
Summary
  • New Quality-adjusted output measure for Scottish Education system
  • Output is differentiated by attainment and weighted by expected future earnings
  • Output index has declined in recent years, driven by fall in pupil numbers