The ICP 2011 Round

1. Presented by: Michel Mouyelo-Katoula Global Manager International Comparison Program World Bank The ICP 2011 Round

2. Outline 2

3. Part I Introduction & objectives for the 2011 round 3

4. Part II • Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements 5

5. Where improvements can be made What worked in ICP 2005 • Defining respective roles in governance • UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board and TAG • Respective roles of the UNSC, Global Office,Executive Board, and Technical Advisory Group • Agreements with regions/countries more explicitly define requirements for submitting regional and ring data • More explicitly define policies on data access and sharing • Define process to determine methodology for regional results and linking • Strengthen ties between ICP and Eurostat-OECD • Separate agreement • Mutual representation in regional workshops • Encourage more partnering arrangements • Determine protocol with countries when data collected by regional or global consultants • Limit on what countries can do at a time • … • Role of the ICP Executive Board • Role of the Technical Advisory Group • Role of the regional coordinators • Regional workshops with countries, global workshops with regions • Partnering arrangements between national statistical offices and regions/global office • Australia, Canada, France, Russia, the UK • …

6. Lesson learnt from 2005 Review Survey Tools Effective Quality of 2005 Method Improve Method Deploy To be improved Not effective Apply 2005 Method Develop Survey Tools Research

7. Innovations • Outreach focus • An ICP quality assurance framework • Statistical capacity building • An ICP Book titled “Measuring the Size of the World Economy” • A National Accounts framework for ICP • A system of economic validation of price and expenditure data • Linking Regions through Global Core List Approach

8. Methodological Improvements • A 600-item Global Core List for household consumption, equi-representative of all the regions • Global core list for household consumption included in regional lists • All countries in the world price the global core list items • Equipment list equally representative across the regions and OECD-Eurostat countries Most Robust Linking Method Improved Quality of National Accounts & Prices • New National Accounts framework • Improved GDP expenditures • Field prices expected to be more consistent with national-accounts-embedded prices • A comprehensive quality assurance framework being finalized Improvements in other areas • Improved methods for health and education • A new method being designed for construction • A 10-topic research agenda being pursued

9. Part III Institutional arrangements 10

10. UNSC ICP Governance Structure Executive Board World Bank Global Office: Global Manager + Staff Regional Advisory Boards TAG OECD-EUROSTAT OECD E/STAT AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWA Countries 11

11. Country Participation and Flow of Data Global PPPS ICP Global Office at World Bank CORE PRICES + REGIONAL PPPs OECD -EUROSTAT PPPS + CORE PRICES OECD EUROSTAT AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWA PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. 48 Countries 52 Countries 28 Countries 9 Countries ? 33 Countries 14 Countries More than 180 Countries

12. Part IV Countries’ activities 13

13. National Accounts Framework for the ICP Derived from SNA-1993 The Framework Set of tables and forms Step-by-step guidelines Piloted in 5 countries Division of work National Accountants Price Experts N.A. Activities Main List Prep. Housing Main price survey Public Education Private Education Public Health Private Health Comp. Of Empl. Equipment Construction Exp. Constr. pricing Other pricing Expenditures – Price Consistency

14. Input Vs Output Methods 15

15. Price Surveys in 2011 400-800 Household Items Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5-10 Housing Services Q3 100 Health goods & Services Intra Country Validation Annual National Average Prices Q2 5-20 Education Services Q4 20 Government Occupations Q4 100 Equipment Q3 20 Construction Items Q4 16

16. Country Activities: Estimation of GDP Expenditures 100 Household Cons. Basic Headings [BH] Identify Data Sources Review GDP Classification Housing BHs Health BHs Carry out N.A. work for comparison resistant areas Implement Commodity Flows where possible Education BHs NPISH BHs Government BHs Develop vector of 2011 GDP expenditures Estimate GDP & Main Aggregates Equipment BHs Construction BHs Other GDP components BHs 17

17. Part V PPP aggregation & linking 18

18. Regional Level: PPP Computation All countries in a region All countries in a region Household .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. All countries in a region Housing .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Health .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Education .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Regional Aggregated PPPs Government .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Equipment .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Construction .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Regional Basic Heading PPPs Annual National Average Prices 19

19. Global Core List Approach All countries in the world All countries in the world All countries in the world Household .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. …. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Calibration Factors Construction .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Global Basic Heading PPPs Annual National Average Prices for Global Core Items All countries in the world .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Global PPPs Regional Basic Heading PPPs 20

20. Part VI • ICP data uses 21

21. Major Uses of PPP • Major uses of the PPP results at international and regional levels include: • International poverty headcount index (World Bank) • Comparing relative sizes of economies and estimating weighted averages of regional growth rates (IMF) • Allocation of structural and cohesion funds (European Commission) • Human Development Index (UNDP) • Gender empowerment measures (UNDP) • Health inequality assessment (World Health Organization) • Assessing per capita expenditures in education (U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural Organization) • Monitoring the welfare of children (U.N. Children’s Fund) • Designing effective aid programs (International Organizations) • Other uses include: • Analysis of an economy’s comparative advantage on prices and expenditures of goods or services (Policy Makers) • Evaluation of investment costs and industry growth potential across countries. • PPP adjusted cost of living allowances (Multinational Corporations, Non-Government Organizations, International Development Agencies) 22

22. Part VII ICP 2011: methodological development & timeframe 23

23. Methodological Development 24

24. Timetable for the Development of Product Lists August Sept. Oct. 2010 July Submission of Country’s Input on GCL 15 Submission of Matrix of Importance of GCL Items 15 Submission of Consolidated Regional Lists 15 Submission of Matrix of Importance of Regional Items 30

25. National Accounts Timetable 2011 2012 2013 2010 Major aggregates for latest year possible J N J N BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible J Values for all BHs N J Preliminary data for 2010 J Major aggregates for 2011 J O M BH values for 2011 J O M M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November

26. Overall Timetable 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1. Meetings 2. Quality Assess. 3. Methodologies 4. Survey Prep. 5. Survey Implement. 6. Nat. Accounts 7. Regional Results 8. Global Results

27. Part VIII The Way Forward 28

28. October 2010 Meetings in Washington DC

29. The Way Forward • A report to the United Nations Statistical Commission [UNSC] on country readiness for field and desk activities. The report will be prepared in November and discussed at the  42nd session of the Statistical Commission in New York in February-March 2011 • The main surveys for household consumption items will start in all the regions in the first quarter of 2011 • The 4th meeting of the ICP Executive Board will take place in April 2011 to review preliminary regional reports on the launch of the main surveys in the countries and decide any remedial measures where necessary

30. Thanks THANKS