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### Forecasting

MBA/510

Objectives

- Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions
- Apply time series analysis and forecasting

Trends and other methods

- Climatology
- Analogue
- Numerical
weather

prediction

Much like forecasting …

Average Absorption Time

40

34.6

30

Seconds

20

5.8

10

3.6

0

267

576

1562

Droplet size (microns)

(Hours)

SURFACE

LIQUID HAZARD

VAPOR HAZARD (BEST CASE)

VAPOR HAZARD

(WORST CASE)

A

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

50 MIN

4 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

25 MIN

3 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 4 HOURS

4 HOURS

10 HOURS

B

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

25 MIN

5 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

25 MIN

4 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 5 HOURS

5 HOURS

16 HOURS

C

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

50 MIN

7 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

7 HOURS

8 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 4 HOURS

7 HOURS

20 HOURS

What we Now Expect- Technical Review
- 40 Concrete and Asphalt
- 120 Painted Surfaces
- 55 Grass
- 10 Thickened Agent

- Recent live agent surface tests
- D****Test (1998 - 1999)
- C**** Tests (1999)
- N**** Test (1999)

Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

- Plot the data on a chart.
- Estimate the linear trend equation by drawing a line through the data.
- Estimate the earnings per share for 2004.

Earnings in dollars

Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

Sales went up $2.67 – $1.56, or $1.11 in 4 years

(2001 –1997). Thus ($1.11 ÷ 4) = $0.2775 or $0.30

Y′=1.00+0.30t

Y′= a + bt

Y′= 1.00 + bt

Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

The quarterly sales for the Norton Company are given in millions of dollars for four years. Compute the quarterly seasonal index using the ratio-to-moving-average method.

Full Table

Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

Full Table

Summary of MBA/510

- Secondary and primary research
- Tools of data analysis
- Levels of measurement
- Sampling size & methods
- Descriptive data & Probability
- Normal distribution
- Confidence intervals
- Hypothesis & Testing Variables
- ANOVA & F-distribution
- Linear regression & Correlation analysis
- Time series analysis & Forecasting

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