Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS

1. Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS 400m Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International Parliamentary Hearing for SIDS Legislators 6-8 Nov 2009 Port Vila, VANUATU 132m Source: SOPAC

2. Long-term observations • Changes across temporal & spatial scales • Modelling changes • Driving forces and factors of change • Uncertainties • Searching for signals Is there evidence?

3. Holgate et al. (2007) There is no such relationship but the IPPC estimates are too conservative! The observations are underestimated. Why so much controversy? Ramsdorf (2007) The rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. So IPPC estimates are too conservative!

4. What is causing Global Warming?

5. The implications of inaction

6. The domino effect

7. Islands are Highly Vulnerable Source: Briguglio, 1995

8. AOSIS Position Stabilise CO2 at 350 ppm Global average surface temperature increase should be limited to well below 1.5º C above pre-industrial levels Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2015. Global CO2 reductions of greater than 85% are required by 2050. Is that acheivable?

9. How much can we reduce?

10. Address Development Priorities To Sustain global economic growth • Shift to low-carbon energy economy • Implement adaptation measures • Address poverty • Address trade distortions To Restore and Enhance Natural Capital • Halt Forest Degradation • Restore resilient ecosystems • Protect existing natural capital • Address social equity and basic rights

11. The Benefits of Green Power Shifting the world onto a low-carbon path could eventually benefit the economy by $2.5 trillion a year. (Stern, 2006) Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP. By 2050, markets for low-carbon technologies could be worth at least $500bn.

12. Decreasing cost of PV technologies

13. Agreement on mechanisms that would lead to ‘effective’ reduction in GHG to 350 ppm • Policies/Taxes/Cap & Trade mechanisms which addresses global GHG reduction and reduce trade distortions • Consideration in enhancing/restoring ecosystem value and services in investment projects • Promote creation of sustainable green jobs across the planet • Clear identification of financial/economic benefits of CDM and other trading mechanisms • Apply the precautionary principle in new schemes to finance mitigation • Apply the polluter pay principle and the common but differentiated responsibility principle in financing instruments • Secure and maximise output/returns for adaptation funding • Address risk through financial mechanisms that encourage resilience building and adaptive design & management A Copenhagen Package

15. Climate change is a reality and happening • Action needs to be taken now to reduce vulnerability and avoid long-term costs associated with climate change impacts. • Early planning and proactive approaches are needed. • Further knowledge development and applied research is critical to build capacity for adaptation and resilience building • Climate change has important links to the economy, noting especially the effects of the recent food and energy crisis, as well as the impact of recent extreme events on coastal infrastructure and tourism. Take home messages!

16. The Sea Level Rise Foundation

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