Applications of early warning in the U.S. and what is needed to deliver them

Applications of early warning in the U.S.and what is needed to deliver them Richard Allen Earthquake early warning summit April 5, 2011, UC Berkeley

WarningTimeline Realtime animation for a magnitude 8 on the San Andreas fault Southern California: Rotate map 180° for a rupture up the San Andreas towards Los Angeles Washington and Oregon: Magnitude 9 rupture of the subduction zone could have a greater warning time YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf9DeYBlwMI Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/SanAndreasFromNorth_v2_bb.mp4

Japan Communicating the warning • TV and radio announcements • 124 of 127 TV stations (98%) • 41 AM, 35 FM radio (75%) • J-Alert messages • 226 municipalities receive the warnings • 102 announce them with public address systems earthquake location and hazard estimated shaking in your area • Cell phones • 3 companies (Docomo, AU, Softbank) • 52 million can receive them (47%) • Dedicated providers serve • power plants • factories • schools • hospitals • shopping malls

Types of application Using seconds to tens of seconds warning for… 1. Personal safety – moving to a safe zone 2. Automated control – slowing/stopping/isolating sensitive systems 3. Situation awareness – initiating response before shaking

1. Personal safety Being in an earthquake… March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=871E8_DJ-rw Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/CouldHaveUsedWarningToTakeCover-01.mp4

1. Personal safety Schools in Japan HomeSeismometer Drill: British School in Tokyo courtesy Peggy Hellweg YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miVBBF_Xows Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/EEW_Exercise_Japan.mp4

1. Personal safety In a university lecture hall in Sendai: Just after 2:46 p.m. on Friday, March 11, an earthquake warning buzzed on the cell phone belonging to Professor Kensuke Watanabe. He knew it was time for everyone in his class to bolt under their desks. The university building in Sendai, the biggest city hit by the quake and subsequent tsunami, began to shake violently. But Watanabe and his students, with that small warning, were able to use the sturdy desks as protection against falling objects. Shortly after, they fled the building for open ground. None in the group was hurt by Japan's worst earthquake on record. "It was terrifying," says Watanabe, "but the mobile warning really helped." Extract from "Japan's Earthquake Warning System Explained” TIME, March 18, 2011.

Surviving Sendai, a first person account: "Our meeting was being held on the second floor of an office building near Sendai Station. Suddenly, during our discussions, our mobile phones began to ring with the distinctive earthquake alarm. ... This gave us a window of a few seconds to prepare before the shaking began. My business partner and I took shelter on the floor beneath a steel door frame and waited for the shaking to begin. Although the building we were in was fairly new, the shaking was strong enough that we were not able to stand. Dust and debris from the ceiling began to fall like snow and large cracks appeared in the walls." – Basil Tonks, Simcoe, March 15, 2011.

1. Personal safety Sendai schools and universities I've confirmed that EEW worked well Nagamachi Elementary School in Sendai City: ‘The earthquake warning was announced about 10 sec before shaking and all pupils sank under their desks. Gradually shaking became larger. One minute later a blackout occurred and after another two minutes severe shaking continued'. The EEW at Shiroishi Junior High School, Shiroishi City was issued and staff and pupils were evacuated. Sendai-West High School's EEW using Miyagi-SWAN (School WAN) also worked. Teachers were in a meeting and sank under desks following the EEW. Athletics club students in the gymnasium were also evacuated. Tohoku University's EEW using the university LAN worked and issued the EEW to the broadcast systems at 5 campuses. – report from Masato Motosaka

1. Personal safety Identifying a safe zone where you live and work • Being mentally prepared for the shaking • Protection from falling bookshelves, lighting etc • Home or office: Under a sturdy table • Outside: away from masonry and falling hazards • Industrial plants, construction sites: away from machinery and chemicals

2. Automated control chip manufacturer Miyagi, Japan • 2003: Two damaging earthquakes • $15 million in losses • fire, equipment damage • 17 and 13 days loss of productivity • Spent $600K on early warning and shear walls in basement • Sensitive equipment set down on floor to reduce shaking and damage • Two similar earthquakes • $200K in losses • 4.5 and 3.5 days • loss of productivity

2. Automated control Bullet trains • At the time of the M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake… • 24 trains were running in the Tohoku Shinkansen system • 9 seismic sensors along the coast, and 44 sensors along the train track • detected the initial tremor; automatic shutdown of power; activation of the emergency brakes • all trains stopped without derailment • they did not sustain any damage on bridges and tunnels, and could restore the operation very quickly - from Asahi

2. Automated control Bringing systems into a safe mode • Slowing and stopping trains • Telling airplanes to “go-around” • Isolating hazardous chemicals and machinery • Putting sensitive equipment into a stable state • Stopping elevators and opening doors at next floor • Smart buildings: opening doors/windows, turning off gas

3. Situation awareness Today: ShakeMap in 5-10 minutes Soon?:AlertMap seconds to tens of seconds before shaking • Current realtime earthquake information • location • magnitude • ground shaking distribution

3. Situation awareness Understanding why systems are failing • Re-routing power or communications • Preventing cascading failures • Initiating emergency response •  Information available before communications are lost

Path to delivery of early warning in the U.S. 1. Long-term goal: Open public system in California, Oregon and Washington similar to Japan • Requires • Additional stations (white) • Upgrades to existing stations • Continuous realtime GPS • Robust telemetry • Methodology development • 24/7 operations • Warning delivery systems • Public education campaign Cost of 5-year implementation plan $80M California $65M Washington and Oregon

Path to delivery of early warning in the U.S. 2. Immediate steps • Identification of warning applications in the U.S. • industry-by-industry assessment of uses for early warning • cost benefit analyses in the context of shaking risk • Work with potential users to start delivery of test alerts • identify necessary information and delivery mechanisms • complete demonstration projects and begin delivery testing • Make existing test software in CA robust • move the current “research” system to a “production” system • develop additional warning applications (software) • Targeted improvements to geophysical networks • filling crucial gaps in the network coverage • Develop additional and improved hazard estimation methodologies • application of realtime GPS methodologies • use of “community networks” e.g. sensors embedded in consumer electronics • realtime mapping of finite fault ruptures Others?

“Homework” 1. Is there additional information that you need to evaluate the utility of early warning for your company? 2. Has your organization been able to identify specific uses of earthquake warnings? If so, how would you use 5 seconds, 20 seconds, and 1 minute of warning? 3. Do you have an assessment of the costs and benefits of implementing warning actions within your organization? 4. Do you have suggestions for next steps to move the development of early warning forward? 5. Are there specific steps that your company would be willing to participate in? Please email your responses to Richard Allen (rallen@berkeley.edu).

Applications of early warning in the U.S. and what is needed to deliver them