Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC
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Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC. Helge Drange G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC. Outline. Bjerknes Centre G. C. Rieber Climate Institute GCR/BCCR  MSC MSC  GCR/BCCR. University of Bergen Geophysical Institute Dept. of Earth Science

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Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC

Helge Drange

G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Outline and MSC

  • Bjerknes Centre

  • G. C. Rieber Climate Institute

  • GCR/BCCR  MSC

  • MSC  GCR/BCCR


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

  • University of Bergen and MSC

  • Geophysical Institute

  • Dept. of Earth Science

  • Dept. of Geography

  • Dept. of Botany

Nansen Environmental

and

Remote Sensing Center

Institute of

Marine Research

The Bjerknes Collaboration

1999-2000


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

2002-10 and MSC

  • University of Bergen

  • Geophysical Institute

  • Dept. of Earth Science

  • Dept. of Geography

  • Dept. of Botany

Nansen Environmental

and

Remote Sensing Center

Institute of

Marine Research

The Bjerknes Collaboration

2002

1999-2000


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Research Infrastructure and MSC

  • Climate time series

  • Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities

  • Ocean research vessels

  • Laboratories/measurement systems

  • Alpine research station

  • Expertise

    • Physical oceanography

    • Chemical oceanography

    • Paleoclimatology

    • Global/regional climate modelling

  • Interdisciplinary

    • Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

Resources

  • Staff

  • (Person-years)

  • 70in science

  • 10 in technical support

  • 4 in administration

  • By far the largest climate research group in Norway


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Research Infrastructure and MSC

  • Climate time series

  • Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities

  • Ocean research vessels

  • Laboratories/measurement systems

  • Alpine research station

  • Expertise

    • Physical oceanography

    • Chemical oceanography

    • Paleoclimatology

    • Global/regional climate modelling

  • Interdisciplinary

    • Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

Resources

  • Staff

  • (Person-years)

  • 70in science

  • 10 in technical support

  • 4 in administration

  • By far the largest climate research group in Norway


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Core activities at GCR Climate Institute and BCCR and MSC

  • Past, present and future climate modelling

  • Coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system (Bergen Climate Model)

  • Atmosphere and ocean only systems (ARPEGE and MICOM, respectively)

  • Mainly global scale modelling

  • Some regional scale modelling, and then with lateral boundary conditions provided by the global system


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?

Basic climate research  Climate impact studies

Where does the MSC enter the scene?


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10°C

Sea surface temperature from satellite, May

Greenland

Norway

Orvik and Niiler, GRL, 2002


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Iceland 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Norway

UK

Ocean colour (SeaWifs), July 2004


The miami isopycnic coordinate ocean model
The Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

  • Dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice modules included

  • Reference pressure at the surface

  • 24 model layers with potential density ranging from 23.54 to 28.10

  • Stretched grids with focus in the North Atlantic-Arctic region (Bentsen et al., Mon. Wea. Rev.,1999)

  • Daily atmospheric forcing, using

  • NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

  • (Kalnay et al., 1996)

  • • No explicit use of in situ

  • observations

  • Period 1948 to present

  • Integrations conducted:

  • - 80/40/20 km resolution

  • - with CFC-11, CFC-12,

  • 137Cs and SF6


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Simulated and observed mean transports (Sv) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Nilsen et al., GRL (2003), Nilsen et al., in prog.

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N 0.5 1.0 Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S 4.3 4.3 HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N 0.5 1.0 Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S 4.3 4.3 HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

IFR Net 2.2 2.3 HØ (2000)

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N 0.5 1.0 Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S 4.3 4.3 HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

IFR Net 2.2 2.3 HØ (2000)

FSC N 4.3 4.4 Orvik & Skagseth (2003)

S 2.2 2.6 HØ (2000), Turrel et al. (1988), Østerhus et al. (1999), Ellett (1998)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Observations (seasonal cycle and averages removed) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Model

Model

Temperature

Salinity

Rockall Through temp (0-800 m)

Hátun/Sandø (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

vs. simulated 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Gao et al., in prep. (2004)

Observed variability

Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2004)

Observed transport

7 days low pass

Transports along Norwegian continental slope =Inflow through FSC


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Changing potential energy difference between the extratopical, A and subpolar gyre B (Curry and McCartney, 2001)

Changes in the average curlzt, (Orvik and Skagseth, 2003)

*B

curlzt=0, i.e.vanishing Sverdrup transport

Discontinuous latitude of the North Atlantic Current (Bower et al., 2002)

*A

Upstream effects on the northward flowing Atlantic water


Conceptual scheme
Conceptual scheme extratopical,

curlzt>0

1.

Norw. Sea

Atlantic

2. As this baroclinic currentencounters the European continental slope, a conversion to a barotropic slope current, the NwASC, takes place

Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2003)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Release point extratopical,

Transport & dispersion of 137Cs from the Sellafield reprocessing plant

137Cs ObservationKershaw & Baxter (1995)

Gao et al. (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Observed and simulated concentration of extratopical, 137Cs in the Barents Sea

5 yr

Solid line Simulated atm. fallout + Sellafield 137Cs

Dotted line Simulated atm. fallout of 137Cs

Circles Observed 137Cs

Gao et al. (2004)

Obs: Kershaw og Baxter (1995)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Observed and simulated 0-250 m temperature in the Barents Sea (Kola Section)

Red line Observed T

Black line Simulated T

Gao and Drange, in prep. (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?

Approaching reality!

 Unexploited potential for bridging ocean climate observations and models to describe and to understand observed fluctuations in the marine climate system

 Next step is to use data assimilation systems to further improve the simulations; global boundary conditions are available; dynamic interpretation of observed and simulated anomalies are emerging


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

What will the climate of Europe be like in 2020? reality?

Greenland

  • Coupled climate models suggest the answer may be quite sensitive to the present state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

  • More research needed to

  • Better observe the Atlantic MOC

  • Better understand how current state of the Atlantic MOC constrain its future evolution


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

The importance of decadal climate prediction reality?

Greenland

  • ‘Forecasting’ of climate change has focused on time horizons of 50-100 years

  • The longest time horizon considered in strategic planning are generally much shorter: 1-30 years


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

From Predicate reality?(EC FP5)

The evolution of the strength of the Atlantic MOC is relatively stable to perturbations to the system

Collins et al. (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

From Predicate reality?(EC FP5)

 In general positive coefficient of regression (K per Sv) over northern Northern Hemisphere

Collins et al. (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

From Predicate reality?(EC FP5)

 Proper 3-D ocean initial state is needed for properly addressing decadal scale climate prediction

Collins et al. (2004)


Helge drange g c rieber climate institute nersc

Great potential for collaboration and interaction between G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Bjerknes Centre and the Mohn-Sverdrup Centre