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“ Imperatives for the SA Oil & Gas Sectors in 2012 ”. Africa Economic Forecast 2012 Workshop “Future Scenarios for Africa in 2012” 29 February & 1 March 2012 The Hilton Hotel, SANDTON. AGENDA . Background of Oil in RSA Background of Gas in RSA Imperatives for Oil Imperatives for Gas
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Africa Economic Forecast 2012 Workshop “Future Scenarios for Africa in 2012”
29 February & 1 March 2012
The Hilton Hotel,
What has changed in the last 20 years?
ROMPCO PTY LTD
In addition to Project Mthombo, the US$10 Bn Project Mafutha (80,000 b/d synfuels plant) takes us to 2030
The Diesel S&D Scenario 2008 - 2030
US$ 10 Bn Project Mthombo (400,000 b/d) takes us to 2027
Current Supply Status – if no construction of new plants
Demand Side Assumptions (SACU)
The Petrol S&D Scenario 2008 - 2030
Long Term Demand Growth Outlook - RSA
Petrol: 1% & Middle Distillate: 3%
(Diesel: 4.7% - Jet: 5% - IP: (3.5%)
“Security of Demand” >
“Security of Supply”
Source: Engen Corporate Division
“Triple whammy – given the rising demand plus CF2 Capex required”
Estimated Refinery Throughput Rates
Estimated Refinery Yields (2010)
Source: PFC Energy
RSA PIPELINE PROFILE
About R5.9 Bn was invested in tankage construction by pvtoilcoys between 2006 & 2011
Unsustainable operations with damaging effect on road networks.
90% of RSA freight is via Sanral road networks
COMPLEXITY: The unintended consequences of Project 141 (Regulatory Accounting)
The irony: the complex regulations are delivering globally competitive margins @ globally competitive prices
COMPLEXITY: Overlap between Regulatory agencies and legislation.
RSA must wake up to the realities of Natural & Unconventional Gas
“There are no easy answers.
Each option has significant disadvantages, risks and advantages. To make a decision, it is necessary to assume where refining margins will be in 15 years. Refining margins are quite low and are likely to remain so for at least another decade, given surplus in refined product (globally)”.