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Brooklyn College Spring 2003. Trapped in the Net Chapters 6 … 10. February 18, 2003 Gene Shagas Student, CIS 763. 6. Jacking into the Market. Financial Trading is a large technical system Quick and irreversible operations Continue to grow and integrate Markets out of control

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brooklyn college spring 2003

Brooklyn CollegeSpring 2003

Trapped in the Net

Chapters 6 … 10

February 18, 2003

Gene Shagas

Student, CIS 763

6 jacking into the market
6. Jacking into the Market
  • Financial Trading is a large technical system
    • Quick and irreversible operations
    • Continue to grow and integrate
  • Markets out of control
    • Delayed feedback
    • Loss of communication
    • Unlimited and uncontrolled access to money
    • Derivatives markets are more volatile than traditional ones, moving much faster
    • Use untested mathematical models
  • Computer models and computerized trading programs had newer been tested in a crunch

today’s approaches are ad-hoc. explicitly define root-cause analysis!

7 expert operators and critical tasks
7. Expert Operators and Critical Tasks
  • Large amount of information lead to computerization
    • Loosing a large, coherent picture
    • Maintenance of traditional prerogatives for employees
    • Putative threat to jobs and skills
    • Error of interpretation is increased while number of computerized methods increased (pilot errors as examples)
  • Increased load information from computers
    • Recognition of Human Factor
    • Increase workload in a crisis
    • Understanding of automatism…often difficult because their principle of functioning is different and often unknown
  • The computer in the loop
    • Human errors remain
    • Removes opportunity for humans to learn
    • Additional redundancy necessary
8 smart weapons smart soldiers
8. Smart Weapons, Smart Soldiers
  • Techno-industrial War
    • 1914 … 1939: Rapid fire artillery, machine gun, Chemical weapon, tank, military aircraft, submarine
    • 1939 … 1945: Blitzkrieg, strategic bombing, radar, V-1 and V-2 missiles, jet aircraft, atomic bomb
  • The Postwar transition
    • Dominance in Air
    • Big wars unlikely, nuclear weapon unusable
    • Computer-related changes:
      • Embedded means of fire control
      • Strategic Analysis
  • Change in warfare increases overall complexity of the military
  • Intellectual and computer skills can be dominated over physical and emotional
9 unfriendly fire
9. Unfriendly Fire
  • Reasonable choice of disaster
    • Libyan airliner: standard actions upon for hostile intercept
    • USS Stark: attack by Mirage was unexpected
    • Iran Air Flight 655: wrong identification as F-14 by operators
  • System failed while equipment worked perfectly
    • Difficulties of forming an independent interpretation
    • New technologies lead to situations where people acting as with perfect equipment
    • Failure lay in the theory of design highly automated systems
    • Interactions between complex computerized systems and human operators may have high probability of errors
10 the logistics of techno war
10. The Logistics of Techno-War
  • Quality versus Quantity in weapon systems
    • Civil, Korean, Vietnam War relayed for victory far more on quantity, than quality, Gulf War – new weapon systems.
    • Shift from mass production and mass attacks to all- volunteer forces equipped with latest technologies
    • Political protest against high cost [p.171]
  • Computers and the Transformation of War [p.184]
    • High-technology weapons and communications
    • An assemblage of small units, moving quickly
    • Highly computerized Patriot and Tomahawk missiles
    • U.S. military as integrated socio-technical system
  • Future battlefield is being designed as an electronic “battlespace”
slide7

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