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The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. 2012 Election Overview. 2012 Election Overview. PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser

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2012 election overview

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

2012 Election Overview

2012 Election Overview

PRESENTED BY:

Hans Kaiser

November 16, 2012

state by state voting
State by State Voting

2012

= Obama

Electoral Votes

2008

Obama 365

McCain 173

2012

Obama 332

Romney 206

= Romney

Popular Vote

2008

Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million)

McCain 59,934,814

2012

Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million)

Romney 59,142,004

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our 2010 nabpac presentation
Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation

265 Electoral Votes

New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)

Florida (29 electoral votes)

Ohio (18 electoral votes)

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

Indiana (11 electoral votes)

GOP nominee sits at:

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slide4

What Happened

205 Electoral Votes

New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)

Romney Net

Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9

Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) +2.2

Virginia (13 electoral votes) -3.0

Indiana (11 electoral votes) +10.5

GOP nominee sits at:

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swing states real clear politics polling averages vs actual results
Swing States:Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results

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slide6

What If … ?

Total 267 Electoral Votes

In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have won:

Colorado

Florida

Iowa

New Hampshire

Virginia

61 Electoral Votes

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slide7

And What If … ?

Total 289 Electoral Votes

Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney would have won those states:

Colorado 9

Florida 29

Iowa 6

Michigan 16

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

Virginia 13

83 Electoral Votes

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presidential vote by party id
Presidential Vote by Party ID

2012

2008

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential vote by ethnicity
Presidential Vote by Ethnicity

2012

2008

+4

-8

+8

+15

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential vote by gender white
Presidential Vote by Gender/White

2012

2008

+11

+7

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential vote by gender black
Presidential Vote by Gender/Black

2012

2008

+14

+0

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential vote by gender latino
Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino

2012

2008

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential vote by area of residence
Presidential Vote by Area of Residence

2012

2008

+2

+4

Network News Exit Polls

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presidential voting by 2011 total family income
Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income

Network News Exit Polls

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50k was the dividing line
$50K was the Dividing Line

2011 Total Family Income

Network News Exit Polls

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most important issue
Most Important Issue
  • Obama won health care and foreign policy voters.
  • Romney won deficit voters.
  • Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win
  • these voters to win the election.

Network News Exit Polls

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condition of economy
Condition of Economy

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is:

Network News Exit Polls

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family financial situation
Family Financial Situation

Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation:

Network News Exit Polls

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blame for economy it s bush s fault
Blame for Economy? It’s Bush’s Fault

Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush?

Network News Exit Polls

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biggest economic problem
Biggest Economic Problem

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?

Network News Exit Polls

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candidate qualities
Candidate Qualities

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?

Network News Exit Polls

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obama cares about people
Obama Cares about People

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?

-Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future

Network News Exit Polls

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obama is more in touch
Obama is More in Touch

Who is more in touch with people like you?

Network News Exit Polls

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candidate policies
Candidate Policies

Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor:

Network News Exit Polls

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vote for president
Vote for President

Which best describes your vote for president today?

Network News Exit Polls

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w hat s ahead
What’s Ahead?

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what s ahead
What’s Ahead?

Party ID

Philosophy

Network News Exit Polls

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income taxes
Income Taxes

Should income tax rates:

Network News Exit Polls

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taxes and the deficit
Taxes and the Deficit

Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit?

Network News Exit Polls

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illegal immigrants
Illegal Immigrants

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be:

Network News Exit Polls

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shift in make up of electorate s white voters in key states
Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States

Network News Exit Polls

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same sex marriage
Same-Sex Marriage

Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage?

Network News Exit Polls

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gop vote
GOP Vote

Network News Exit Polls

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contact information
Contact Information

www.moore-info.com

Bob Moore, bobm@moore-info.com

Hans Kaiser, hansk@moore-info.com

www.facebook.com/mooreinformation

34

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