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Are All the Data Making a Difference?. Are All the Data Making a Difference?. Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding!. Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand. Mother Nature Real time! Still trying to understand.

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data don t guarantee understanding
Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding!

Numerical Simulation

24 hours CPU = 1 hour real

20 TB of output

Still trying to understand

Mother Nature

Real time!

Still trying to understand

slide6
NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT (near tornado time)No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas
slide8

7 pm

8 pm

6 pm

Radar

Fort Worth

Xue et al. (2003)

slide9

7 pm

8 pm

6 pm

Radar

Fort Worth

4 hr

3 hr

2 hr

Fort Worth

Fcst With Radar Data

Xue et al. (2003)

slide14

Challenges

  • Each set of forecasts (ensemble and individual)
    • produces 6 TB of output PER DAY
    • Requires 9000 cores (750 nodes) of the Kraken Cray XT5 at Oak Ridge
    • Takes 6.5 hours to run
  • Provisioning of data in real time
  • HUGE value for research – predictability!
  • Management in a repository – retention time?
  • Experiment reproducibility!!
  • Creating products that will benefit the public (smart device location-based warnings)
challenges
Challenges
  • Be careful what you wish for! A one-hour model-based “tornado warning” would be a game changer
  • Social and behavioral science elements are critical
  • Our ability to effectively warn the public and understand its response is relatively crude