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www.mekongeconomics.com. “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon , Myanmar (13 September, 2012). By Adam McCarty ( adaminhanoi@gmail.com ). Contents.

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slide1

www.mekongeconomics.com

“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”

presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com)

contents
Contents
  • Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise.
  • Key data
  • Macroeconomics and trade
  • Themes to understand
  • SWOT and Business Opportunities
other indicative and key data
Other indicative and key data
  • Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009
  • Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009
  • Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010)
  • 26% of households have grid electricity
  • Adult literacy 92% (?)
  • Infant mortality rate 50/1,000
  • Life expectancy 62 years
  • 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years
macroeconomic management a concern
Macroeconomic management a concern

IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation)

Exchange rate unified March 2012

slide9

68% of exports

are gas, logs,

and legumes.

Clothing

and footwear

are only 8%

of exports.

themes to understand
Themes to understand
  • Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.
  • Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010)
  • Tertiary education: generational variance
business opportunities
Business Opportunities
  • SHORT TERM:
    • Tourism
    • Extractives: oil, gas, mining
    • Licences (e.g. telecoms)
  • LONG TERM:
    • 2015 elections are market entry trigger.
slide14

QUESTIONS?

“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”

presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com),

www.mekongeconomics.com