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Challenges and Opportunities for a Low Carbon Future A few elements from WBG analyses

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  1. Challenges and Opportunities for a Low Carbon FutureA few elements from WBG analyses Marianne Fay With thanks to Stephane Hallegatte and Adrien Vogt-Schilb Climate Change Group The World Bank Group

  2. -90% -20% Time

  3. Emission reduction (vs baseline) Time

  4. Emissions should be reduced, but How? when? With what tools?

  5. Emissions should be reduced, but The answer depends on the end goal

  6. Figure WG3.6.17. Development of carbon intensity vs. final energy intensity reduction relative to 2010 in selected baseline, and mitigation scenarios reaching 550 and 450 ppm CO2-e concentrations in 2100

  7. How?

  8. All models suggest the same strategy

  9. All models suggest the same strategy

  10. All models suggest the same strategy

  11. When?

  12. Reaching a shorter-term target through cheap options (supply curve approach) would cause carbon-intensive lock-in 2030 target 2020 target No time to do this between 2010-2020 (you’d need a specific curve for 2020) To be an option in the long term these need short-term support No time to do this in 2020-2030 time 12

  13. What constraints on the speed of the transition?

  14. Capital turnover

  15. Technology diffusion (Share of sales, not stock)

  16. Workers availability

  17. Availability of funds for upfront investments

  18. Local capacity

  19. With what policy tools?

  20. Timing matters. So does cost.

  21. Climatechange.worldbank.org

  22. Illustrating the win-wins • 3 interventions: • Clean transport (EE and increased public transport) • Improved industrial energy efficiency • More energy efficient buildings and appliances • In 6 regions • EU, US, Brazil, China, India, Mexico • Enough to deliver 30% of CO2e reduction by 2030 • Achieved through regulations, tax, incentives

  23. GDP increases worth $1.8-2.6 Trillion

  24. Different instruments for different sectors Should be implementable at current prices: non-price policies (e.g., standards for light)

  25. Different instruments for different sectors Can be triggered by a slowly increasing carbon price Should be implemented at current prices: non-price policies(e.g., standards for light)

  26. Different instruments for different sectors Can be triggered by a slowly increasing carbon price Should be implemented at current prices: non-price policies(e.g., standards for light) Requires sectoral plans for buildings, transport, urban, energy, etc.

  27. The elements of a low-carbon strategy

  28. Carbon pricing

  29. And its necessary complements • Performance standards – buildings, cars • Rules and regulations • Public investments – public transport, innovation • Fiscal instruments • Sector-scale action plans – urban plans For predictability, credibility and political acceptability

  30. The elements of a low-carbon strategy climatechange.worldbank.org http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/pricing-carbon#1