Analysis of Alternatives (AoA)

1. This Briefing is Classified UNCLASSIFIED Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Brian Lihani Deputy Chief, Aerospace Warning Branch HQ NORAD/J35W 11 May 2011

2. Purpose of Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) • Evaluate performance, operational effectiveness, operational suitability, and estimated costs of alternative systems to meet a mission capability • Assess advantages and disadvantages of alternatives being considered to satisfy capabilities. Includes sensitivity of each alternative to possible changes in key assumptions or variables • A key input to defining system capabilities in the Capability Development Document Bottom line Conduct analysis to determine the best solution based on cost, risk, and capability

3. UNCLASSIFIED What determines an AoA is required? • DoDI 5000.02 implies that AoAs are mandatory for all programs • In reality, the true driver is statutory requirements where AoAs are mandatory for: • All potential and designated Acquisition Category (ACAT) I efforts • ACAT-I: Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) • 10 USC § 2366a & b: Milestone Certifications to Congress • ACAT-IA: Major Automated Information System (MAIS) • 40 USC § 1401 et seq.: Clinger-Cohen Act (CCA) of 1996 • PL 107-248 § 8808: CCA Compliance & MAIS Funding • Can be designated ACAT I / IA if “JROC Interest” – for programs where the capabilities have a significant impact on joint warfightingor have a potential impact across Services UNCLASSIFIED

4. UNCLASSIFIED AoA Defined • An AoA is the evaluation of the performance, operational effectiveness, operational suitability, and estimated costs of alternative systems to meet a mission capability. (CJCSI 3170.01) Which one, in what configuration… or is it a combination (i.e., system of systems [SoS] or Family of Systems [FoS])? UNCLASSIFIED

5. UNCLASSIFIED What is an AoA? • Key AoA components • Operational environment • i.e., threats and scenarios • Alternative development • Employment concept development • Risk analysis • Effectiveness analysis • Cost analysis • Cost-effectiveness analysis • Value to the decision process • Identifies the viable trade space (not just the 100% solution) • Creates audit trail of the analysis process • Provides an analytical basis for any acquisitions that may follow Joint Capabilities Integration & Development System (JCIDS) VCJCS or Service Chief Oversight Need Driven ANALYSIS Defense Acquisition System MDA Oversight Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution (PPBE) Process DEPSECDEF Oversight Joint CONOPS Calendar Driven Event Driven UNCLASSIFIED

6. When are AoAs performed? • Suggested by an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) • Authorized at the Material Development Decision (MDD) • Conducted during the Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) phase • Updated prior to Milestones B and C as directed by MDA ConceptDevelopment (AFI 10-601) Defense Acquisition Management System(DODI 5000-02) AoA MaterielSolutionAnalysis Technology Development Engineering and Manufacturing Development Production and Deployment Operations and Support Development Planning & MDD Prep MDD MS A MS B MS C AoA Study Guidance and Study Plan Capability Production Document Initial Capability Document Technology Development Strategy Capability Development Document RequiredDocumentation

7. UNCLASSIFIED How long do AoAs take and cost? • Short answer: it depends! • Key Drivers: • Decision maker expectations • Available resources: time, personnel/expertise, funding Good • Data for 27 AoAs (2000-2008) ** • Average cost $3.9M • Gov’t salaries not included • Earlier AoA costs very suspect • Primary factors affecting cost: • Blue Suit vs Contractor mix • Non-AoA work counted in the total (engineering design, test, etc.) • Length of the AoA (consistent $300-400K/mo) • Costs are approximate; often the study lead reluctant to give us costs • Data for 56 AoAs ** • Average length 20 months • 61% took between 13-24 months • Variations generally correlate to • Complexity of the problem • Stakeholder politics • Funding levels • How much analysis already done • Times are approximate, slightly conservative • Those longer than 36 months have extenuating circumstances Study Results “Trade Space” Fast Cheap ** Data provided by OAS “Good, fast, or cheap… pick two!” UNCLASSIFIED

8. UNCLASSIFIED Cost of AoA • 2000-present: cost range from $500K to $11.5M (Ground Moving-Target Indicator (GMTI) • GMTI estimated cost was $25M – provided by Cost lead • 3600 funding only – money requested by Space and Missile Center (SMC) to directly fund work • 3400 funding and/or “in-house” contractor support • Prompt Global Strike (PGS) AoA • Pre-AoA prior to 2003 – all work “out of hide” funded • ADM assigned • Reported to AFROCC 2008; Final Report signed in 2009 • Requested analysis continues ** Single country, single component, single service, single MAJCOM, single mission, single technology UNCLASSIFIED

9. UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO • Data Types • Scenarios • Tools • Performance • Cost • 3. Gather & Review Data • Identify input data requirements • Accredit/certify • Identify voids 4. Execute Analysis Plan • Conduct the analysis • Effectiveness • Cost • Risk • Affordability North American Air Domain Awareness – Surveillance Analysis of Alternatives • Documents required for AoA start: • Joint Integrated Air & Missile Defense Organization (JIAMDO) IAMD Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) • Approved by JROCM dated 29 Oct 2010 • OSD/CA&PE for AoA Study Guidance • N-NC/J58 working comments • N-NC/J5 Study Plan • Currently on hold – awaiting Study Guidance finalization • Material Development Decision (MDD) – formal entry point into acquisition process • AoA required for ACAT 1 acquisitions (DoDI 5000.02) Etc… AoA Activities • Purpose: • Develop an International/Interagency solution to address North American air/cruise missile surveillance gaps and deterioration while maintaining current capabilities • Scope: • AoA is unique due to scope – current planning has N-NC & ACC as co-leads • Timeline/Funding: • Currently advertised as 18-24 months after approval; $5M • N-NC/J84 supporting as follows: • Effectiveness Analysis Team Lead, Risk Team Lead, Integrating Analyst • 1. Define the Problem (J58) • Determine purpose • Determine/discuss issues • Define alternatives/approaches • Determine audience for results • Identify potential detractors • 7. Package Results • Focus on issues • Make it clear and understandable • Orient to decision maker • Socialize the results and get approval • 6. Prove the Answer • Recheck assumptions • Analyze sensitivities • Identify additional analysis needed • 2. Develop Analysis Plan • Review existing knowledge • Develop appropriate measures • Develop analysis methodologies • Socialize the plan and get approval • 5. Interpret the Results • Determine meaning of the data generated • Get independent sanity check UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO