slide1 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
ENERGY EFFICIENCY PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 41

ENERGY EFFICIENCY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 91 Views
  • Uploaded on

ENERGY EFFICIENCY. EFFICIENCY = 45% OF 2030 REDUCTIONS 58% OF 2050 REDUCTIONS. ENERGY EFFICIENCY.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'ENERGY EFFICIENCY' - fadey


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
energy efficiency
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
  • EFFICIENCY =
  • 45% OF 2030 REDUCTIONS
  • 58% OF 2050 REDUCTIONS
energy efficiency1
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

“I think we have to have a strong push toward energy efficiency. We know that's the low-hanging fruit, we can save as much as 30 percent of our current energy usage without changing our quality of life.”

(June 28, 2009)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/us/politics/29climate-text.html

energy efficiency2
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

MCKINSEY AND CO. “PATHWAYS TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY”

MOSTLY BELOW COST EFFICIENCY

assumption linear direct
ASSUMPTION: LINEAR & DIRECT

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

ENERGY

USE

X%

X%

reality complex indirect
REALITY: COMPLEX & INDIRECT

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

ENERGY

USE

X%

?%

consider another input labor
CONSIDER ANOTHER INPUT: LABOR

LABOR

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

LABOR

USE

ENERGY

USE

X%

X%

EFFICIENCY

PRODUCTIVITY

rebound effects
REBOUND EFFECTS

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

ENERGY

USE

X%

X%

conclusion
CONCLUSION

“Rebound effects are real and significant, and combine to drive a total, economy-wide rebound in energy demand with the potential to erode much (and in some cases all) of the reductions in energy consumption expected to arise from below-cost efficiency improvements.”

(p 4)

rebound effects the basics
REBOUND EFFECTS: THE BASICS

MCKINSEY AND CO. “PATHWAYS TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY”

BELOW COST

rebound effects the basics1
REBOUND EFFECTS: THE BASICS

COST OF ENERGY SERVICES

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

rebound direct effects
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

DEMAND

(INCOME/OUTPUT EFFECT)

COST OF ENERGY SERVICES

SUBSTITUTION

rebound direct effects1
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

MACROECONOMIC SCALE: SERIES OF CHAIN REACTIONS

rebound indirect effects
REBOUND: INDIRECT EFFECTS

RE-SPENDING

NET ENERGY

COSTS

ENERGY

USE

rebound indirect effects1
REBOUND: INDIRECT EFFECTS

EMBODIED ENERGY

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

ENERGY

USE

rebound macro effects
REBOUND: MACRO EFFECTS

ECONOMIC GROWTH

ENERGY

PRODUCT-

IVITY

ENERGY

USE

rebound indirect effects2
REBOUND: INDIRECT EFFECTS

MARKET PRICE FOR FUELS

ENERGY

USE

ENERGY

USE

rebound direct effects2
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

ROUGHLY 10-30% FOR CONSUMERS IN RICH NATIONS

rebound direct effects3
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

MUCH LARGER IN DEVELOPING NATIONS

(40-80%?)

rebound direct effects4
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

TYPICAL VALUES FOR INDUSTRY MAY BE 20-70%

rebound direct effects5
REBOUND: DIRECT EFFECTS

TYPICAL VALUES FOR INDUSTRY MAY BE 20-70%

rebound indirect effects3
REBOUND: INDIRECT EFFECTS

RE-SPENDING

GENERALLY SMALL TO MODERATE (0-35%)

EMBODIED ENERGY

rebound macro effects1
REBOUND: MACRO EFFECTS

GENERALLY SMALL TO MODERATE (<15%);

MAY BE LARGE WITH MULTI-FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GAINS

GROWTHEFFECTS

rebound macro effects2
REBOUND: MACRO EFFECTS

MODERATED BY OTHER REBOUND EFFECTS AND USUALLY < 100%, BUT CAN BE LARGE OVER TIME IF NET ENERGY DEMAND FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY

MARKET PRICEEFFECTS

scale of total economy wide rebound1
SCALE OF TOTAL, ECONOMY-WIDE REBOUND?

“At the global scope most relevant to climate change and energy resource depletion concerns … perhaps the most robust picture of global economy-wide rebound to date … projects that global efforts to capture ‘no-regrets,’ below-cost energy savings opportunities will trigger rebound effects that collectively erode more than half (52%) of projected energy savings potential….

(p. 50).

slide30

SCALE OF TOTAL, ECONOMY-WIDE REBOUND?

EVEN THAT IS LIKELY TO BE AN UNDER-ESTIMATE…

  • COMPLICATING FACTORS INCREASE BACKFIRE RISK
    • BACKFIRE = REBOUND > 100%
    • BACKFIRE MEANS EFFICIENCY INCREASES NET ENERGY USE, NOT DECREASES.
slide31

BACKFIRE RISK: MULTI-FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GAINS

“Improved energy efficiency, especially end-use efficiency, often delivers better services. Efficient houses are more comfortable; efficient lighting systems can look better and help you see better; efficiency motors can be more quiet, reliable, and controllable; efficient refrigerators can keep food fresher for longer; efficient cleanrooms can improve the yield, flexibility, throughput, and setup time of microchip fabrication plants; ... retail sales pressure can rise 40% in well-daylit stores ... Such side- benefits can be one or even two orders of magnitude more valuable than the energy directly saved. ...[I]n efficient buildings, ... labor productivity typically rises by about 6-16%. Since office workers in industrialized countries cost ~100x more than office energy, a 1% increase in labor productivity has the same bottom-line effect as eliminating the energy bill – and the actual gain in labor productivity is ~6-16x bigger than that.”

(Amory Lovins, 2005)

where does this leave us
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US?
  • REBOUND EFFECTS ARE REAL, SIGNIFICANT, AND CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED.
  • COMBINE TO ERODE MUCH – AND IN SOME CASES ALL – OF PROJECTED ENERGY SAVINGS FROM BELOW-COST EFFICIENCY MEASURES.
where does this leave us1
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US?
  • EFFICIENCY IS STILL GOOD ECONOMIC POLICY, AND PLENTY OF REASONS TO CONTINUE TO PURSUE TRULY COSY-EFFECTIVE EFFICIENCY
  • BUT CONVENTIONAL CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES (WHICH IGNORE REBOUND) ARE DANGEROUSLY OVERRELIANT ON EFFICIENCY
why is it so hard to decouple economic growth from energy
WHY IS IT SO HARD TO DECOUPLE ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM ENERGY?

Global energy use (quadrillion Btu) and Gross World Product (constant US dollars (billions) 1995), from 1980 to 2000. (Source: World Bank, 2002).

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_and_sustainable_development_at_global_environmental_summits

why is it so hard to decouple economic growth from energy3
WHY IS IT SO HARD TO DECOUPLE ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM ENERGY?
  • IF…
  • 2/3 DUE TO SECTORAL
  • 1/3 DUE TO TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY

GDP

+3%

E/GDP

-1%

why is it so hard to decouple economic growth from energy4
WHY IS IT SO HARD TO DECOUPLE ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM ENERGY?

Assuming NO rebound!

>7X INCREASE

GDP

+3%

E/GDP

-3%

slide40

IS ENERGY EFFICIENCY REALLY GOING TO BE THE EASY, LOW-COST, LOW-HANGING FRUIT STRATEGY FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION?

slide41

CONTACT INFO:

JESSE JENKINS, DIRECTOR OF ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICY

510-550-8800 X329 – JESSE@THEBREAKTHROUGH.ORG

TED NORDHAUS, CHAIRMAN

510-550-8800 X305 – TED@THEBREAKTHROUGH.ORG

MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER, PRESIDENT

510-550-8800 X352 – MICHAEL@THEBREAKTHROUGH.ORG