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Navy Tropical Meteorology Research. Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR. Fleet priority since WWII Establishment of JTWC in 1959 ONR program thrust since 1980 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm” Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific

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navy tropical meteorology research

Navy Tropical Meteorology Research

Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR

slide2
Fleet priority since WWII

Establishment of JTWC in 1959

ONR program thrust since 1980

1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT

- “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm”

Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific

- Emphasis on quantitative satellite observations; mitigated impact of the loss of in-situ data

Previous (1990’s) emphasis on track

- Met 1984 goal in 2002

Recent program focus

- Coupling between ocean & atmosphere (CBLAST DRI)

- Storm-scale processes and ocean impact (two new DRI’s: TCS-08, ITOP)

History and Recent Program Focus

slide3
TCS-08: “The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons”

Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of tropical disturbances over the western Pacific (formation, intensity changes, outer wind structure, etc.)

Collab. with THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

Collaboration between ONR, NRL, NSF, USAF, ARL, NAVOCEANO, andEU, JMA, CMA, NTU, KMA, CNES, DLR, etc. as part of the T-PARC project

ITOP: “Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean”

Focus on improved prediction of TC impact on ocean waves & mixed layer

Improve representation of wave-induced mixing in upper ocean

Recent TC Research Initiatives

3

slide4

Navy Man-Years vs. Detailed Research

Intensity / Structure

Track

Genesis

QPF

Surge

Model Development

Observations

[Seasonal]

4

slide5

Navy Man-Years vs Research Category

Total Man-Years: 50

5%

36%

59%

slide6

Navy Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities

TC Research Aligned with Operational Priorities

Intensity

Change

Genesis

Stat Aids

QPF

Track Fcst

Storm Surge

Observations

Size/Structure

SST Gradients

Model Res vs Ensembles

Seasonal Progs

Fcst Efficiency

Wind Analysis

Radar/Sat. Data

slide7
Track errors will continue to improve as global model skill increases

- Assimilation of new sources of remote sensing data should help, as will ocean observing system

- Profiling floats/drifters should be considered as part of routine TC recon.

Current intensity prediction lacks skill:

- Need to treat as a coupled problem

A coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean mesoscale modeling system at sub-10km resolution is feasible

- Improved understanding of heat, moisture and momentum fluxes bridged a significant knowledge gap

- Needed to address genesis, intensity changes, structure and asymmetries, ocean impacts and improved wave/surge prediction

Future Research Directions

summary
Summary

8

  • Navy has a long-standing history of tropical meteorology research
    • Basic > Applied
    • Topics focused on Naval requirements
    • Initiative process emphasizes research on important knowledge gaps
  • Current Navy emphasis
    • Structure (wind field / sea height), genesis, intensity changes, physics coupled with the ocean
    • Emphasis on remote sensing vs. in-situ observing technologies
    • Exploring the use of UUV’s and autonomous vehicles for ocean observing
    • High-resolution coupled mesoscale model (COAMPS-TC) for structure and intensity prediction