Stephen Quigley AFRL/RVBX

1. Space Weather System-Impact ProductsSSA Environmental Effects Fusion System- (SEEFS) Overview –For NESSC14 Oct 2009 Stephen Quigley AFRL/RVBX

2. Outline • General Overview • FY04-06 Products • Future Products • Input Data Requirements • Status

3. SEEFSOverview - General • SEEFS is an AFSPC sponsored program • SEEFS = Products + Architecture + Database • SEEFS combines environmental info with system specs and thresholds to produce system-impact products outputs • SEEFS was designed to provide real-time support • SEEFS is situated as a pseudo stand-alone system with multiple target integrations being pursued • Distributed Mission Operations – Space (DMO-S): For training/exercises • Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA/SWOC): 3/5 on SMC “ops” Testbed • Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC): for DoD asset ops SSA • Maui High Performance Computer Center (MHPCC): For distributed processing • And others that can be considered • Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) • NASA • SEEFS is expected to be a net-centric application • SEEFS to be separated into environmental and system-impact pieces

4. SEEFSOverview - Prototypes Completed (FY04-05) ProductsDelivered to SMC from AFRL • SoRBE Solar Radio Burst Effects • RAC II Radar Auroral Clutter • RadScint Radar Scintillation • SatScint Satcom Scintillation • Char/D Satellite Charge/Discharge • The current version of SEEFS is prototype • An operational version is nearly complete at SMC SYAG • SEEFS output is in graphical and consolidated text formats • Conout.txt allows for machine-to-machine (MtM) uses • SEEFS includes nowcast & forecast capabilities • SEEFS includes confidence levels

5. Solar Radio Burst Effects (SoRBE) Product • Requires solar radio data • Currently RSTN • Requires radar & SATCOM receiver specs & thresholds

6. SoRBEThe Problem - RFI

7. Confidence Levels 60-99% SEEFS Products – SoRBEMap View Product – SATCOM Example The Overhead or Map View product provides all relevant solar RFI info for a given radar or SATCOM receiver site, with 3-D effects projected onto a 2-D map. SATCOM solar RFI effects are determined by comparison of solar output with receiver thresholds provided directly.

8. SEEFS Products – SoRBEScope View Product – Radar Example The Scope or Az/El plot view product provides all relevant solar RFI info for a given radar or SATCOM receiver site, with 3-D effects plotted onto Az vs. El and Az vs. Range plots. Radar solar RFI effects are determined by comparison of solar output with range-dependent receiver thresholds calculated for each site using the radar range equation. A single/standard m2 target size (RCS) is assumed.

9. SEEFS Products – SoRBEConfidence Levels Confidence Levels 60-99% The initial SoRBE product has confidence level estimates dependent on the fan of operation, local time, solar activity and input data quality, amount of frequency interpolation, and receiver lobe configuration. Confidence level information is shown in pop-up table format.

10. Radar Auroral Clutter (RAC) Product • Requires clutter-effective auroral & SAPS data • Currently via Kp driven boundaries from ground magnetometer or DMSP SSJ/4 data • Requires radar specs • Uses Hardy Auroral Oval and Electron Density models; also uses SAPS model based on John Foster’s SAPS climatology/statistics

11. 10,000 False Targets in 3 hours - Max at 0o aspect angle +/- 4o. Radar Auroral ClutterThe Problem • Auroral “clutter” is feedback on radar due to dynamic fields and precipitating energetic particles in the aurora and sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS). • It occurs where: • theradar signalbeamandgeomagnetic field linesare perpendicular • and auroral particle currents or SAPS strengthis substantial • It can result in false observations of targets (1 obs), tracks (2+ obs), even anomalous launch or impacts (enough obs for the calculation) Magnetic field lines (grey) with auroral precipitation (green) and sub-auroral polarization stream (purple) Straight-line radar signal propagation

12. SEEFS Products – RAC Map View Product The Overhead or Map View product provides all relevant auroral and SAPS clutter information for a given radar site, with 3-D effects projected onto a 2-D map.

13. SEEFS Products – RAC Map View (Zoomed) Product The enlarged Map View of RAC provides 3-D information via the addition of elevation angle contour lines.

14. SEEFS Products – RAC Scope View Product The Scope or Az/El plot view product provides all relevant auroral and SAPS clutter information for a given radar site, with 3-D effects plotted onto Az vs. El and Az vs. Range plots.

15. SEEFS Products – RAC Confidence Levels Confidence Levels 68-99% The initial RAC product has confidence level estimates dependent on the fan of operation, location with respect to the potential clutter zone (PCZ), input data type, and input data age. Confidence level information is shown in a pop-up box in the above example.

16. Satellite & Radar Scintillation (SatScint & RadScint) Products • Requires scintillation & indices (Kp & SSN) data • Currently via SCINDA obs and Kp/SSN • Requires SATCOM & radar receiver specs & thresholds • Uses SCINDA models for real-time obs applications in SatScint; uses WBMOD for climatology applications in SatScint and RadScint

17. ScintillationThe Problem • Ionospheric density gradients can distort a SATCOM or radar signal traversing it to/from a satellite or target Ionospheric Scintillation Aurora or “Bubbles” Ionosphere Radar Receiver SATCOM Receiver

18. Confidence Levels 47-92% SEEFS Products – SatScintMap View w/Confidence Link After choosing the Geosynchronous SATCOM satellite and frequency of interest, the Map View for SatScint depicts scintillation-based signal fading for ground-level locations that might communicate with that satellite. Confidence levels for this product are depicted as a correlated pop-up image, with values highly dependent on input data age and distance of a point from the scintillation sensors.

19. PtP Scintillation Legends Real Time Model Climo Model Link Thresholds ------- Severe ------- Moderate Confidence Levels 58-95% Point-to-Point Link: TestSat1 (150E) to GroundSiteX (12N, 100E) SEEFS Products – SatScintPoint-to-Point (PtP) Product w/confidence After choosing the Geosynch SATCOM satellite and freq and a specific ground SATCOM site’s location, SatScint’s PtP time plot depicts scintillation-based signal fading for that specific satellite-to-ground link. Confidence levels for this product are plotted below the main plot.

20. ScintillationThe Problem – Radar – DoD Example Auroral Scintillation Boundary Observation of RCS scintillation at the Fylingdales radar.

21. SEEFS Products – RadScintMap View Product The Overhead or Map View product provides relevant climatology model-based predictions of ionospheric scintillation-caused dB fading for a given radar site’s returns. The user chooses from various operating frequency and altitude slice options; results are projected onto a 2-D map.

22. SEEFS Products – RadScintAz/El Polar & Scope View Plot Products The Az/El Polar and Scope View products provide for alternative “3-D” views of the same radar scintillation predictions. The user still chooses from various operating frequency and altitude slice options.

23. SEEFS Products – RadScintConfidence Levels Confidence Levels 30 - 75% The RadScint product has confidence level estimates dependent on the altitude, elevation angle, and input data age. Confidence level information is shown in a separately linked image in the above example.

24. Satellite Charge/Discharge (Char/D) Products • Requires magnetospheric particle data & indices • Currently via GOES, LANL, ground-based neutron monitor, POES BI and Kp • Requires satellite orbit, specs & thresholds • Uses Magnetopheric Specification Model (MSM), Koons-Gorney Energetic Electron Model, Korth MPA Data Model, CRRES Electron Radiation Belt Model, Hardy Auroral Model, and SOPA/GOES Survey Model, along with NASA’s Spacecraft Charging Analysis Program (NASCAP 2K)

25. Satellite Charge/DischargeThe Problem • Under certain conditions, energetic electrons can buildup on or in a satellite, resulting in satellite charging. • If charging is substantial AND a discharge mechanism exists, the resulting discharge can cause physical damage and/or phantom commands to the satellite. • Surface charging takes place rapidly, and is due primarily to eV – KeV electron fluxes. • Deep (internal) charging takes hours to days, and is due to MeV electron fluxes/fluences.

26. Satellite Char/D ProductsSurface Charging – Charging/Voltage Plot The Surface Char/D product is comprised of three output plots. The first (1) shows the predicted surface charging state of the satellite. The second (2) shows the predicted surface discharge state. For the initial product, only entry or exit from eclipse is used as a discharge mechanism. The third (3) shows the overall confidence level of the previous two combined. 1. 2. 3.

27. Satellite Char/D ProductsDeep Charging - Multi-plot The Deep Char/D product provides a single, multi-plot output showing the predicted states/ conditions for (1) deep charging, (2) deep discharging and the (3) confidence level, all on one image.

28. SEEFS ProductsCombinations & Decision Aids • Included in all products • Text output file of all information • Best allowance for MTM • To be combined • All radar effects products • All SATCOM effects products • All satellite effects products • Ultimately an automated satellite anomaly assessment product/report in near real time • Already integrated • All SEEFS product effects are combined into a single, higher-level “Decision Aid” that quantifies & qualifies the total effect of all product output on a given asset (site) and mission (grouping of assets). • This is the SEEFS Decision Aid product (examples on following slides) • Allows for any combination of assets (radar, SATCOM, satellite) to build a mission • Incorporates business rules for site and mission status • Provides stoplight charts with product drill-downs

29. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 1 (Top Menu)

30. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 2 (Mission Selection)

31. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 3 (Global View)

32. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 4 (Stoplight Chart) • Individual asset effects levels will be based on asset/system specific thresholds. • Combined assets (“Global View”) effect levels will be based on specified mission thresholds.

33. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 5 (Products Drill-Down)

34. SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 6 (Lower Product Views)

35. SEEFSStatus - Development & Deliveries • Current SEEFS effort is to operationalize the existing products and link them programmatically • Spiral 1 (prototype SoRBE & Architecture) • Delivered to SSA test bed & Ops Eval done – Mar 2005 • Spiral 2A (All 5 prototypes & DA & new Architecture/DB) • Delivered and Ops Eval completed – Mar 2006 • Delivered to MHPCC for potential parallelization • Delivered to Portion to DMO-S (Schriever AFB) • Spiral 2B (operational version of all) • Code rewrites and requirements docs work finishing up NOW • SMC/SYAG ops testbed deliveries to AFWA • Initial radar products (RAC, SoRBE, RadScint) to testbed in Aug 2008 • Second delivery (SatScint & Char/D) to testbed expected in Dec 2009 • Return (re-written “baseline”) delivery to AFRL/RVBX ~ Jan 2010

36. SEEFS Operational EvaluationMarch 2006

37. SEEFSFuture Work • Depending on requirements and funding, future SEEFS work will focus on one or more of the following: • Validation of current products: note JHU/APL for RAC • Upgrades to current products: SoRBE, RAC, RadScint, SatScint, Char/D, and the Decision Aid • New product development, especially low-hanging fruit… • High-Energy Proton Effects as a Satellite Single Event Upsets and Events (SEUPE) product • Includes existing South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) maps • GPS Dual-Frequency Errors (Scintillation) • Meteor Effects (ME) - Impact, Sighting, Radar Clutter, Bolides • Tropospheric Effects • Man-Made Environment Effects (Nukes, engine burns, METOX, etc) • Data Fusion

38. The End