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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan. Pei-Fen Lee. North. South. North. South. Roads. 36000 Km 2 68\% vegetated cover. Elevation vs. Latitude. Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients.

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slide2
North

South

North

South

Roads

36000 Km2

68% vegetated cover

elevation vs latitude
Elevation vs. Latitude
  • Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients
long term prediction and short term monitoring
Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring
  • Long-term
    • Species distribution database
    • Environmental database
    • Species distribution models
    • Future projection from IPCC data
    • Change in species distribution
  • Short-term
    • Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)
finch billed bulbul
Finch-billed Bulbul(白環鸚嘴鵯)

Species distribution data

species distribution models
Species Distribution Models
  • Logistic regression
  • Discriminant function analysis
  • Artificial neural network (ANN)
  • Cummulative distribution function
  • Genetic algorithm(GARP)
  • MaxEnt
from occurrence to probability
From Occurrence to Probability

White-eared Sibia(白耳畫眉)

presence maps
Presence Maps

Bufomelanosticus(黑眶蟾蜍)

Microhylainomata(史丹吉氏小雨蛙)

climate change scenario
Climate Change Scenario
  • RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid)
    • CO2 concentration expected to be doubled
  • IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid)
  • Species
    • Breeding birds (117 species, 75%)
    • Amphibians (24 species, 73%)
    • Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)
climate change scenario1
Climate Change Scenario

Temperature:RSM2

Precipitation:RSM2

slide11
IPCC data

Annual mean

temperature (˚C)

slide12
Annual Total

Precipitation (mm)

fairy pitta pitta nympha low elevation forest species status vulnerable 10 000 worldwide
Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide
slide14
Breeding (Apr. to Sep.)

Wintering

Source: BirdLife International

slide15
Fairy Pitta: mean temperature

Mean: 22.3°C

Range: 16~26°C

n=514

20-25°C98%

slide16
Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CCS - B2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C

Suitable

slide17
Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CMA - A2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C

taiwan yuhina change in distribution due to climate change
2020

Current

2100

2050

Taiwan Yuhina:change in distributionduetoclimatechange
  • Reduced suitable habitat
  • Moving toward higher elevation
  • Dramaticchangebetween2050and2100

Suitable

slide19
Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina

Endemic Birds

Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

slide20
Increasing-distribution:Taiwan Hwamei

Decreasing-distribution:Taiwan Yuhina

2 species

15 species

slide22
Breeding birds: change in species richness

Decrease in low-elevation

& mid-elevation

Increase in high-elevation

slide24
Amphibians: change in species richness
  • Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution
  • Fragmentation
slide27
Monitoring from 1922 to 2011

3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

slide28
Breeding Bird Monitoring

1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

slide30
Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009

High-elevation species

Mid-elevation species

population trend
Population Trend
  • Density
    • Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species
    • Uncertain: 5
    • Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species

Streak-throated Fulvetta

Wren

Formosan Firecrest

community pattern
Community pattern
  • Biodiversity increase in high elevation
temperature change
Temperature Change

Summer

Winter

slide36
Decrease in snow days
    • 1992– 40 days
    • 2006– 11 days
climate change impacts
Climate Change Impacts
  • Underclimatechange,many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area
  • Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase
climate change impacts1
Climate Change Impacts
  • Short-termchangeobservedinYushanNational Park issimilartothosepredictedinlong-termdistributiontrend
  • Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture
climate change impacts2
Climate Change Impacts
  • Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas
    • Reduced species richness
    • More pests and unwanted grass species
    • Potential public health problem
      • E.g., dengue fever
slide44
Dengue case distribution

Only concentrated in certain districts

dengue and urban development
Dengue and Urban Development
  • Older community
  • Rural region
  • City and county junction
  • Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas
bio indicators for climate change
Bio-indicators for Climate Change
  • Different species groups
    • Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle
  • Different ecosystems (spatial)
    • Urban, coastal, high mountain
  • Different temporal scales
    • Month, season, year, decade, …
slide49
Barnacle distribution

Species occurrence

Abundance

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