chp in the e3 ghg model proposed changes for stage 2
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CHP in the E3 GHG Model Proposed Changes for Stage 2. April 1, 2008. Process Notes. Presentation describes the E3 proposed approach for including CHP in Stage 2 Hoping for consensus on reference case cost, performance, and penetration inputs

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Presentation Transcript
process notes
Process Notes
  • Presentation describes the E3 proposed approach for including CHP in Stage 2
  • Hoping for consensus on reference case cost, performance, and penetration inputs
  • Sensitivity analysis can be done by users and inputs can be changed to evaluate alternative cases
  • All parties will have the opportunity to comment
  • CHP in E3 Stage 1 Model
  • Key CHP issues
    • CHP regulatory status under AB32
    • Data availability
    • Thermal/electric split
    • On-site/grid export split
  • E3 Proposed Stage 2 model changes
    • Existing CHP
    • Adding new CHP
    • Reference case cost & performance assumptions
  • EPUC/CAC proposed assumptions
chp in stage 1 model
CHP in Stage 1 Model
  • Stage 1 model contains the CHP units that are in the WECC databases
  • Stage 1 model does not specify CHP generation as a separate category
  • Stage 1 model does not have a way to add new CHP generation
  • Parties requested E3 to add CHP as separate category
  • E3 requested help from parties in identifying CHP units in the WECC databases
chp regulatory status under ab32
CHP Regulatory Status under AB32
  • CARB’s GHG inventory treats CHP as a separate category from non-CHP generation
  • However, CARB considers part of CHP emissions to be included in CA’s “electricity sector” - i.e. all those that are not associated with “useful thermal output”
  • Currently, CARB considers emissions associated with “useful thermal output” to be point source emissions, not electricity sector emissions, so separately regulated
  • CARB reviewing approach to CHP regulation and reporting - status could change
data availability
Data Availability
  • Major data shortcomings for CA CHP
    • No single source that has capacity, generation, and emissions for all CA CHP
    • Different capacity size cutoffs for different databases
    • Little reliable data for small (<1 MW) CHP
    • WECC databases don’t identify CHP units
    • Difficult to match EIA Form 920 list to WECC names
    • Unclear if WECC CHP heat rates are net or gross
  • E3 model makes assumptions about existing CHP based on best available data
thermal electric split
Thermal/Electric Split
  • Emissions for thermal and electric regulated separately under current scheme
  • CARB inventory split based on EIA Form 920 (generation & fuel use) and predecessor data
  • EIA methodology changed ca. 2003, changing the split significantly
    • CARB emissions % electric 1990-2003: 63%
    • CARB emissions % electric 2004: 78%
  • What is a reasonable thermal / electric split?
on site grid export split
On-Site/Grid Export Split
  • EIA and CARB do not distinguish on-site (i.e. behind the meter) from grid export generation
  • CEC estimates on-site non-PV generation in load forecast, data reliability and overlap with EIA/CARB data uncertain
  • Plexos does not model on-site generation
  • What is reasonable assumption for on-site/grid export split for existing CHP fleet?
proposed changes in stage 2 model
Proposed Changes in Stage 2 Model
  • Add CHP as new generation option
  • Account for CHP generation and emissions separately from non-CHP generation
  • Provide user controls for cost, performance, and penetration assumptions for user cases
  • Provide user controls for thermal/electric and on-site/on-grid splits for user cases
  • Separate treatment of existing and new CHP
existing chp in stage 2 model
Existing CHP in Stage 2 Model
  • On-site CHP: generation already embedded in load forecast so no adjustment is necessary
  • On-grid CHP: many CHP units are not identified in WECC database, so CHP fleet generation is underestimated in the Plexos model
  • This is corrected by adjusting CHP fleet generation and emissions to hit expected values based on historical data
    • Existing CHP generation and emissions in Plexos summarized, then adjusted in E3 calculator to expected value
    • Non-CHP generation decremented by the same amount in E3 calculator
ca chp capacity by unit size
CA CHP Capacity by Unit Size

Source: EEA database, 2006 data

existing chp expected values
Existing CHP Expected Values
  • Units < 5 MW (380 MW, 30% c.f.) generation estimated at 1000 GWh, assumed all on-site
  • CEC self-gen ~ 11,000 GWh, so ~ 10,000 GWh from units > 5 MW and 1,000 GWh from units < 5 MW
  • 10-year average EIA total CHP generation and CARB emissions show no trend, so can use for expected CHP
    • generation: 44,000 GWh
    • emissions: 30 MMT
    • electric share of generation and emissions: 63%
  • Use CHP net heat rate implied in EIA data to be consistent with CARB’s present methodology; however, calculator will track thermal fuel use efficiency proposed by CAC/EPUC
formulation of existing chp adjustment
Formulation of Existing CHP Adjustment

Col A

Col B

Col C

Col D =


Col E=

B+D= A

Col F=


new chp in stage 2 model
New CHP in Stage 2 Model
  • Two categories of new CHP
    • > 5 MW nameplate = “Large” CHP (cogen)
    • < 5 MW nameplate = “Small” CHP (self-gen)
    • Division at 5 MW based on SGIP criteria
  • Characteristics of large CHP represented by 40 MW gas turbine
  • Characteristics of small CHP represented by 3 MW gas reciprocating engine