Alternative publishing models: Exploring costs AND benefits John Houghton

1. Alternative publishing models:Exploring costs AND benefits John Houghton Centre for Strategic Economic StudiesVictoria University, Melbourne John.Houghton@vu.edu.au+61 409 239 109

2. Recent and current projects • Research Communication Costs in Australia: Emerging Opportunities and Benefits (DEST) (http://dspace.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/44485). • The Economic and Social Impacts of Open Access (Easi-OA) (http://www.cfses.com/projects/Easi-OA.htm). • Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models (JISC) (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/reppres/economicsscholarlypublishing.aspx). • Podcast on economics of OA (JISC) (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/news/stories/2008/08/podcast55johnhoughton.aspx). • Identifying benefits arising from the curation and open sharing of research data (JISC). • European Knowledge Exchange (Netherlands, Denmark & Germany). Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

3. Research communication costs AND benefits Costs, costs, costs… The goal should be the most cost-effective system, not the cheapest! Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

4. Implications of alternative publishing models JISC Project • Current work includes a JISC-funded project on the Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models, in collaboration with Loughborough University. • The aim of the project is to explore the institutional, budgetary and wider economic implications of the major emerging models of scholarly publishing (i.e. subscription publishing, OA publishing and self-archiving), with particular emphasis on the implications for UK universities. • Phase I seeks to describe each of the publishing models, and identify all the costs and potential benefits involved. • Phase II seeks to quantify as many as possible, and compare costs and benefits. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

5. Phase I: Approach and activity modelJISC Project • Two approaches in the literature: (i) a focus on the publishing process, and (ii) systems perspectives putting publishing in a wider context. • Studies that focus on publishing activities alone tend to overlook areas in which costs are shifted around the system, confuse that shifting with cost reduction and not take account of the full system costs. • We adopted a system perspective and our costing includes activities related to publishingand those relating to funding, research and dissemination functions. • We developed an activity model based on IDEF0 process re-engineering. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

6. Scholarly communication process modelJISC Project Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

7. Cost model and matrix approachJISC Project • Scholarly communication is multi-dimensional, so we adopted a “matrix” approach to costing: • Activities (e.g. peer review), • Actors (e.g. universities), • Objects (e.g. journal articles), and • Functions (e.g. quality control and certification). • With the aim of being able to break down and re-assemble the scholarly communication value chain along any of these dimensions. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

8. RESEARCHAccess for all, research participation based on merit, not means. Potential benefits:Speeding up discovery.Reduction of duplicative research.Fewer blind alleys.New research possibilities. Better educational outcomes & enhanced research capabilities. INDUSTRY/GOVT(1) Access as needed, more informed producers and policy. (2) New businesses add value to content (e.g. Weather Derivatives). Potential benefits:Accelerate and widen opportunities for collaboration, commercialisation & adoption. The potential for much wider access for GPs/nurses, teachers/students, and small firms in consulting, engineering, ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, etc. The potential for the emergence of new industries based upon the open access content. An Impacts Framework OPEN ACCESSPotentially serves all INDUSTRY/GOVERNMENTPart served, but not all RESEARCHMost/Many served, but not all SOCIETYAccess as needed, informed consumers (e.g. health and education). Potential benefits:Contributionto the 'informed citizen' and 'informed consumer', with implications for better use of health and education services, better consumption choices, etc. leading to greater welfare benefits,which in turn may lead to productivity improvements. SUBSCRIPTION PUBLISHINGCurrent reach CONSUMERS/SOCIETYFew served Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

9. Dimensions of impact: access and permission Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

10. Phase II: Quantifying costs & benefitsJISC Project • We adopted a staged approach that tackles it from the bottom-up (as case studies and scenarios) and the top-down (in a simple economic model). • We explore the costs of the process elements and system costs, to see cost differences and direct savings. • We present cases and scenarios exploring the cost savings resulting from the alternative publishing models throughout the system, to see the indirect cost differences and savings. • Then we model the impacts of changes in accessibilityand efficiency on returns to R&D. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

11. Approach to overall impactsA modified Solow-Swan model • There is a vast literature on returns to R&D, which while varied shows that social returns to R&D are high – typically 20% to 60% a year. • The standard approach assumes that all R&D generates useful knowledge (efficiency) and all knowledge is equally accessible (accessibility), which is unrealistic. • We introduce “accessibility” and “efficiency”into a standard model as negative, friction variables, and look at the impact of reducing the friction by increasing access and efficiency. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

12. Impact estimation rangesJISC Project Example of estimation tables (UK HERD, £ millions) Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

13. Comparing cost and benefitsJISC Project • Toll and OA publishing a very different things: tollaccess publishing seeks to provide UK subscriber with access to worldwide research, whereas OA publishing seeks to provide worldwide access to UK research. • We approach the question from both sides and try to explore the lower and upper bounds by looking at: • The benefit/cost implications of simply adding OA publishing and self-archiving to current activities, all other things remaining the same; and • The implications of OA publishing and self-archiving as alternatives to current activities, by adding the estimated savings to estimated returns. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

14. Exploring FAQsJISC Project • Then we explore some FAQs, and we currently have three examples: • The diversion of research funding to author-pays – looking at it from both sides, asking (i) if current Wellcome Trust or RCUK spending on author-pays fees is beneficial, and (ii) what is the maximum percentage of funds that could be diverted before exhausting the benefits; • The impact of delayed OA – estimating the impact of a 1 year delay on returns to R&D; and • Speeding up the research and discovery process – estimating the impact of a 1 year reduction in the lag between R&D expenditure and its economic impact. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

15. Alternative publishing models:Exploring costs AND benefits John Houghton Centre for Strategic Economic StudiesVictoria University, Melbourne John.Houghton@vu.edu.au+61 409 239 109