SCENARIOS PREPARE D IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE

1. Kounicova 44, 612 00 Brno, CZECH REPUBLIC Tel.: ++420 54118 3680 (2683), FAX: ++42054118 3371, E-mail: uss@vabo.cz The Institute for Strategic Studies of Military Academy in Brno . Ing. Josef JANOŠEC, CSc. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE

2. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE INTRODUCTION film scenario transformation for user influence to user security and defence scenario ° Cinematization of the catastrophic situation need scenario. You know any film. ° Specialist on security and defence cannot be only unprepossessed watcher. He is also a critic. ° Purpose ofthis presentation is shown, that scenarios shall be only framework, not detailed version of the future. Concentrated to achievement of the main task on the principal concrete bearing missions. ° Scenarios of the small state development would have had respect major measurement objective outer tendencies and solving only that aims, where the sense is.

3. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE • Content: • HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS • 2. VISION OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC TILL YEAR OF 2015 • 3. NOTE TO THE THEORY OF SCENARIOS IN THE FIELD SECURITY AND DEFENCE • 4. NOTE TO PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE

4. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 1. HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS How was basic scenarios of the future in The Czechoslovakia and The Czech Republic on field security and defence? 1. Nullification of the socialistic political system in Czechoslovakia (1989). 2. Nullification of the Warsaw pact (1991). 3. Break up of Czechoslovakia as a state into two independent states (1993). 4. Entrance to NATO (1999). 5. Entrance to European union (2004). 6. Professionalization of The Czech Republic Armed Forces (2007).

5. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 1. HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS How was the practice of thescenarios creation?  Set of goals were more political decisions, then scientific activities. But also establish of the Institute for strategic studies in Prague (1991). Systematic research of the security and defence problems in the year 1992 brought result. Material with the title DefenceStrategy of The CSFR and perspective of the Czech Army development contained: - analysis contemporary development society and system of CSFR defence, - forecast of the society development and system of CSFR defence, -findings, suggestions measurements and progress in a further work in single troubleshooting region and 11 appendixes: Proposal of the Strategic conception CSFR defence for period till the year 2000 (2005) with variant textures of The Czech Armed forces in the war and during peace, Proposal of the methodology construction complex system of defence, Political conditions and needs of defence, Economic conditions and needs defence, Scientific and technical conditions and necessity for defence, Role of the human factor at defence, Development of the organization and administration of the defence system, Strategy defence of The CSFR, Science, research and education in Czech Armed forces in the process of conception defence realization, Profesionalization of The Czech Republic Army in the strategy defence, Necessity, chances of and manners of the informatization The Czech Armed forces. 1990 - 1992

6. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 1. HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS Individual partial tasks were further created and solved. A synoptic synthetic material confess running changes (1992 - 1993) in accordance with changes demand for solving. Step by step were elaborated other tasks: Development system of defence and Armed Forces of The CSFR till the year of 2000, Development system of defence and military in The CSFR after a year 2000. In the consequences of the preparation of the separation Armed Forces after breaking up of The CSFR: System of defence of the state and transformation Czech Armed Forces, System of defence of the state and Armed Forces of The CR, including news 9-the partial impositions, reacting on the break up of The Federation.For this there was organized The Scientific Symposium for The topic: System of defence of the state and model of The Czech Armed Forces. Choice due was published in The Periodical Military reviewand given for discussion at the professional level. The conception of the Armed Forces construction in The Czech Republic was homologated till the year of 1996. In the year of 1993 The Institute For Strategic Studies MO was dissolved. 1993

7. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 1. HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS 1994 -Institute for international relations (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) solves project "Security Policy of The Czech Republic", on whose processing with share of The Ministry of Defence and Interior Ministry. 1998 - fundamentals constitutional law of the national security of The Czech Republic. The new law of the Czech Republic Defence. 2000 - a new „crisis law“ were accepted. In all of these activities were fulfiled by specific tasks scenarios, which variant described a possible development of the future safety security and defence of the state. From distance of the time we can valueted, that method of their production was distinctly intuitively pragmatic. It included a collective parley. 1993 - 2000 - Seven-years old interval, when this institution of this type in CR did not exist.Signified break-in pointing of the experimental development theory and practice as a strategic studies, as the same as scenarios like a method for the prediction of the future. These activities continued in pursuant in years as a personal initiatives. 1993 - 2000

8. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 1. HOW IS PRACTICE OF THE SCENERIOS 1999 - The organizational conditions for establishmentof the Institute for strategic studies of Military academy in Brno, were created, which started its practical activity in the year of 2000. 2000 -Start of the Strategic Defence Review of the Czech Republic.(Analyze real conditions, mapping already newly commitment. Purpose: short-term, medium term and long-term objectives and measures for a qualitatively new state achievements. 2001 - The programme of professionalization of The Czech Armed forces proclaimed by Government of The Czech Republic. The analytic material and medium-term plan for professionalization of The Czech Armed forces was created with the term of the 2007. 2001 - 2002 - Production and activities of the Institute for Strategic Studies of Military academy in Brno. 2001 - 2002

9. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 2. VISION OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC TILL YEAR OF 2015 2000 -Centre for social and economic strategy of Faculty social sciences Charles University in Prague prepare"Vision development of The Czech Republic into of the year 2015" Study is based on application of the sociological method with frictional part apply to: A - Starting position, development trend, risks and developing occasions of The CR until the year of 2015.This includes sum of moderate matter-of-fact pieces of knowledge in of many year's standing substantial matter-of-fact circle. B - Scenarios of The Czech Republic in the year of 2015.Offers several means of script connected evolutionary hypotheses for convenience contemplation possible future of the state by. C – Searching priorities for The Czech Republic.Contains topics for the development of the state.

10. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 2. VISION OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC TILL YEAR OF 2015 Substantial matter-of-fact circuits in study they are: 1 - Outer formative development trend: processes of globalization, processes of European integration, processes of changes living environment Earth, dynamism of population mankind development and development of social unevenness in abroad, outer security risks; 2 - Formative development trends of The Czech Republic: a formation of defence and security, development delinquencies, formation of legally consistent state and human rights, administration and its reform, conditions development public sector, development of institutional frames behaviour market relations, economic growth and competitive advantage of The Czech economy, development of the political system, development of the civil sector, development of social relations, textures and cohesion society; 3 - Potentials of development for The Czech Republic: fundamental sharing funds and orientation of country, bearings population, formation and exercise of the human potential of the state, reproduction population, family, outer and inner migration, health and care of population, education, problems of employment rate and employability, national culture and identity, living environment, territory and society, regional development, structure settlement, exercise R and D = research and development, processes informatization of society, social communication.

11. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 3. NOTE TO THE THEORY OF SCENARIOS IN THE FIELD SECURITY AND DEFENCE Notes 1: For the every scenario they are most considerable these basic information: 1. what be think as scenario, 2. what is purpose of this scenario and 3. specification of the time, which has affect. Thereby is at the same time for realization scenarios booked up: - who working (scientist, political advisers, solders, intelligencer, filmer), - with who(kooperants), - for who is working (for policy, for corection ofbuild-up armed forces, for creation conception of course crises situation, for training, education, philosophy and research, popularization) and then at the same time - about what(object of scenario), - to what utilize is working (for scheduling, for influence opinion, for analyzing possible future, for artistic experience), - what has tools (computer equipment, graphs, data, power lyric, film, personality lecturer, atp.).

12. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 3. NOTE TO THE THEORY OF SCENARIOS IN THE FIELD SECURITY AND DEFENCE Notes 2: Whole scenario (S) is possible describe with utilize system theory and comprehend him like one system. Responsible position is time standpoint. In election time axes get past determine concrete time interval [dti = ti – (ti -1), fori 2;n ], which not have to be regular, but go determination duly significant event. In every time is imagery model of system M(ti).Scenario has final quantity (n) of models [S = (M(t1), M(t2), ..., M(ti), ..., M(tn))]. Every model is independent system with internal structure of components - actors (A) and their interrelationship (R). In sequence of models doesn't need everyone actors always conduct. It entails, that structure of models can be with development of times different and will have other characteristics. As well it entails, that set actors salient in all model will as a rule higher than in model some. Every actor has throughout scenario of his roleand it is possible put together hierarchic succession of actors (role), inclusive their dishumanization according to of meaning in single model. Role may be chief, adjacent, episode, auxiliary atp. Impletion role of actors depend upon changes relation (dR). As well this relations is possible display for example by the help of incident matrix, which for us with value 1 or 0 portrayals existence relationship between actors (in picture, scenes, episode, scenario).

13. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 3. NOTE TO THE THEORY OF SCENARIOS IN THE FIELD SECURITY AND DEFENCE Notes 2: continuation Interesting is watch to actors among single models, because get to changes of times about dti . Potential construction sequence cases actors (A) at passage from M(ti-1) into M(ti) they are following: 1. a rise actor (his accession to scenarios), 2. continuation actor without changes, 3. continuation actor with inner change (change role from chief on adjacent or on the contrary, inner transformation, change internal structure of component), 4. transformation of actor (linking or dole system performance in relations with further act-eras), 5. extinction of actor (hereafter script no-gets off or is so insignificant, that isn't to the fore described picture and scenes). Accordingly it is possible characterize role (R): 1. rise a new type relation (independent or applied), 2. continuation relation without changes, 3. continuation relations with inner change, 4. transformation of relation (creation of new quality in positive or negative sense), 5. extinction of relation (in consequence changes actor or changes system).

14. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 3. NOTE TO THE THEORY OF SCENARIOS IN THE FIELD SECURITY AND DEFENCE Notes 3: With an empiricism go out appreciation, that every episode of scenarios has its time path. Nativity of idea and formulation purposes, continues any forms scheduling way his achievement. As a rule was fixed term strategy, were identified actors, prepared collection of operational and tactical aktivities. None of episode generally do not ending for example in date of signature agreement about membership CR in NATO. Continuation of life in changed state and projection his incidence into everyday practice. Scenario should mark in what time and in what extent rate as round futures behind enclosure.

15. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 4. NOTE TO PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE Goul is oriented to utilize of scenarios for prediction of fundamental framework in the area defence and security. Scenario is concrete and should be not produce space for hazy vision. Should make formulation of variant futures. Regarding extent due they are hereinafter text state fundamental postulates, that would builders script had in her activities respect. Come next generalization long-term experiential knowledge. 1. Reality (existence of man, collective, of the state, Earth, universe) lives and without end with develop. 2. Isn't futures without pasts. Isn't futures without goals, whicht to be above all reached. 3. Exist uninterrupted development property regardless of model, which her with definite measurement generalization picture. 4. Revolution or war they are accelerator of development, though severexisting relations. 5. General future is created from future of elements. Total scenario come next scenarios of single actors, who plays along of times differently meaningful roles.

16. SCENARIOS PREPARED IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS A METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE 4. NOTE TO PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE (continuation) 6. Every result of development is process search of balances system and result to be disequilibrium. Absolute balance not providing an easy survey system is only auxiliary theoretic state. 7. Future is generation goal-directed volition namely are able to realize only individuals. Every individual with have ability to influence of evolutionary element is funds for personal influence, that are unpredictably. 8. Future is multiply. Every element come within into hierarchy significance elements. Objective reality and her model they are holistic systems.Holistic systems are composed from subsystems, which are from the componentsfor the equal level. Every system is potential subsystem of higher system and his subsystem is potentional system. 9. Scenarios are time‘sfunctionfor development of system. They interesting of evolution and meaningful changes of relations inside model and change vignettes model in time. 10. A lot of goals on one level threaten achievement desirable of change.