China in the WTO. China Institute for Reform and Development/GTZ Haikou, China November 17-18 Razeen Sally, ECIPE/LSE. CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS. Up to WTO accession China in WTO after accession National reforms post WTO accession What China needs to do. CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS.
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China in the WTO China Institute for Reform and Development/GTZ Haikou, China November 17-18 Razeen Sally, ECIPE/LSE
CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS • Up to WTO accession • China in WTO after accession • National reforms post WTO accession • What China needs to do
CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS • Up to WTO accession -- Radical unilateral opening of economy in 1990s -- Tough WTO negotiations; very strong accession commitments -- Mutually reinforcing domestic and WTO reform processes
Changes in average statutory tariff rates in China (%) *Source: World Bank (1999, p340) to 1998. Ianchovichina and Martin’s calculations for tariff lines with imports from 1999 and China’s final WTO offer. CDS Consulting Co. provided applied tariffs for 2001. Trade data comes from COMTRADE. Source: Elena Ianchovichina and William Martin, “Economic impacts of China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3053, May 2003.
Changes in the import coverage of nontariff barriers from 1996 to 2001 Note: Calculations for 2001 performed by Mei Zhen of MOFTEC during an internship at the World Bank Source: Elena Ianchovichina and William Martin, “Economic impacts of China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3053, May 2003.
Formal unilateralism; reductions in applied MFN tariffs on Source: Richard Baldwin 2006: Kimura, Takahashi, and Hayakawa (2005)
Applied Tariff rates in Asia *Malaysia 1996 *Vietnam 1997. All tariff rates are based on unweighted averages for all goods in ad valorem rates, or applied rates, or MFN rates whichever data is available in a longer period. Source: World Bank
Bound and applied MFN tariffs in Asia The figures are simple unweighted averages of the tariff rates in percent from the year of 2003 and 2004. Source: World Bank
Table x: Coverage Ratio of Non-tariff Barriers in Import Trade* (Unweighted, percent) Notes: … Not available * Calculated as percentage of import value of HS6 tariff lines affected by NTBs in total imports. NTBs include quantitative restrictions in the form of all types of licenses and import authorization, quotas, import prohibitions, advanced import deposits, foreign exchange restrictions, fixed customs valuations, and state trading monopolies. Figures reported under a given sub-period relates a single year within that sub-period. Source: Hoekman et al (2002, Table A-4 and WTO, Trade Policy Review – Country Report (various)
Figure 9: Total Trade (Goods & Services) Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics
Figure 10: Trade/ GDP Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI)
Pie 1 (i): Share of Global Trade (Goods) Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics
Pie 1 (ii): Share of Global Trade (Service) Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics
Figure 15: Inward FDI Flows Source: UNCTAD, FDI Key Data
Figure 2: IFDI Stock Accumulated 1980-2005 (percentage of Global IFDI Stock)
CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS • China in the WTO post-accession -- General: locking in domestic reforms; becoming a stakeholder in multilateralism; setting an example (e.g. Vietnam); integrating into the global economy -- DDA: pragmatic, but largely passive – punching below weight -- DSM: listening and learning; mutual restraint; but now more action -- Implementation: a mixed record
CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS • National trade-related reforms post-WTO accession -- Credits: WTO lock in; managing tensions with trade partners; some WTO-plus reforms -- Debits: Reform slowdown; inevitable complications -- Other developments: FTAs; energy/investment nationalism; industrial policy
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
The map shows FTAs signed or under negotiation in January 2006. East Asia is defined here as the 10 ASEANs, China, Japan and Korea. Source Richard Baldwin 2006
CHINA, WTO, DOMESTIC REFORMS • What China needs to do -- National reforms: WTO implementation; WTO-plus reforms (services and investment); moving to 2nd generation regulatory reforms; wider reforms and context -- Faster unilateral reforms – in China’s own interest -- China as engine of Asian and global unilateral liberalisation -- WTO: strengthening rules post-Doha; China must move to co-leadership -- FTAs: more caution; cleaning up the mess -- Key bilateral relationships: What others need to do, esp. USA and EU
Table 1: Ease of Doing Business Source: The World Bank Doing Business Database
Table 2: Trading Across the Border Source: The World Bank Doing Business Database
Table 3: Governance Indicators Source: The World Bank Doing Business Database