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Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Rear Admiral Dave Titley Oceanographer of the Navy Presented to Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA 1 March 2010. EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS SITE TC-COR Agrihan 2 Alamagan 2 Anatahan 2

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naval oceanography excellence in tropical cyclone forecasting

Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Rear Admiral Dave Titley

Oceanographer of the Navy

Presented to

Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Savannah, GA

1 March 2010

slide2

EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS

SITE TC-COR

Agrihan 2

Alamagan 2

Anatahan 2

Pagan 2

Saipan 3

Tinian 4

Battlespace on Demand:Minimizing TC Impact on Naval operations

  • Tier 3 – Decision Layer
  • Strike Probability
  • Condition of Readiness
  • Sortie Options
  • Tier 2 – Performance
  • TC Warnings
  • Wave probabilities

~ $1-2M/yr

  • Tier 1 – Modeling
  • NUOPC/HFIP
  • COAMPS - TC
  • ESPC

~ $9M/yr

  • Tier 0 – Environment
  • Remote Sensing
  • In situ Obs
environment tier remote sensing and observations
Environment TierRemote Sensing and Observations
  • The Navy is heavily dependent/leveraged upon partnerships for satellite based observational data.
    • Advocate better use of existing data streams v. new sensors.
    • Navy programmed investments targeted at oceanographic applications (e.g., GFO 2, UUVs)
  • Key Capability Gaps
    • Ocean Surface Vector Winds
      • Scatterometer
      • Radar
      • GPS reflection
    • Soundings
      • Rawinsonde?
      • Radiometer
      • LIDAR
modeling tier track and intensity forecasts
Modeling TierTrack and Intensity forecasts

Track is top priority. The Navy views improvements to global modeling capability as best means to improve track forecasts.

Navy/NOAA/USAF Partnership is key enabler

NUOPC

HFIP (NHC / JTWC)

Earth System Prediction Capability

Structure and Intensity: Storm Scale modeling initiatives

HWRF/HFIP

TC-COAMPS

  • Improvements in structure and intensity forecasts dependent on first improving track forecasts

4

performance and decision tiers
Performance and Decision Tiers

TC warnings

ATCF Improvements

Wave Heights

Matching TC tracks to WW3

Surge and inundation

RTP

FY01 Improvement to TC Model Forecasts

FY02 Modeling TC Structure and Track

FY06 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction

FY09 Prediction of TC Track and intensity Using COAMPS-TC

Probability Based Decision Tools

TCCOR

Sortie

  • Conveying Uncertainly reduces uncertainty

5

summary partnerships success
SummaryPartnerships = Success
  • Navy supportive of and dependent on “Federal Solution” for remote sensing needs
  • Accurate track forecasts key to enabling naval operations—global modeling improvements best investment
    • Significant investment in NUOPC and next-generation modeling in cooperation with NOAA and USAF
  • Basic Research on intensity and Structure needed
    • Support OFCM WG/TCR
    • Storm-scale modeling initiatives
  • Link Forecasts to Decisions
    • Describing uncertainty reduces uncertainty.
dod tc forecasting goals v 2
DoD TC Forecasting Goals v.2

72hr 120hr 168hr

75nm 150nm 200nm

24hr 48hr 72hr

50nm 100nm 150nm

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