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Citizens Climate Lobby Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference March, 15, 2014. Lancaster, PA. OBSERVED AND MODELED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (MID-ATLANTIC STATES) CLIMATE CHANGE. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov (University of Maryland) .

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slide1

Citizens Climate Lobby

Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference March, 15, 2014. Lancaster, PA

OBSERVED AND MODELED

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL

(MID-ATLANTIC STATES)

CLIMATE CHANGE

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov (University of Maryland)

slide2

MY RELATED CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES USING SURFACE, SATELLITE, & ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATIONS

    • Global Warming (1976)
    • Arctic Sea Ice Extent is decreasing (1999)
    • Climate Variability is not increasing (2002)
    • Global Tropospheric Air is warming (2003)
  • Sea level rise – Accelerated Antarctic melting (2004)
slide3

MID-ATLANTIC STATES: OBSERVED CHANGEIN

TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION

KNOWN GLOBAL WARMING SIGNATURE (FOOTPRINT) IN CLIMATIC RECORDS:

. Warming trend YES

. Polar amplification YES

. Winter (Cold Season) amplification YES

. Diurnal asymmetry NO

. Increase ofprecipitation YES

. Summer desiccation ?

slide5

Compare to:

Northern Hemisphere Warming 1895-2013 Trend=0.76oC/100 yr

slide6

East Coast States:

Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Air Temperature Trends

slide8

A century-scale warming trend can be clearly seen in observations of Tmax & Tmin at 5 of 9 chosen meteorological stationsinMaryland.

  • An expected asymmetryofTrend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax) is found in observations of 3 of 9 chosen stations. Five other stations displaytheopposite Trend(Tmin)<Trend(Tmax).
  • Century-scale decreasing trends in variance of Tmaxare found in observations at 8 of 9 chosen meteorological stations.
slide10

East Coast States:

Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Precipitation and Trend

slide11

East Coast Rivers:

Observed Seasonal

Variations of

Runoff Trends

R. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010

R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010

R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010

R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010

R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010

R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010

R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010

R. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010

R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010

R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010

R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010

R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010

R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010

R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010

slide14

Annual Cycle of PrecipitationinMD and VA has MAX in the Summer and MIN in the Autumn.

This makes our climate so nice.

slide16
Observed Increases in Very Heavy Summer Precipitation during the 1958 to 2011 period (archive of USGCRP 2009 updated)

Summer

Percent increases in the amount falling in very heavy rain events defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2011 in the summer season for each region

Groisman et al., 2013

Changes over the northcentral and northeastern parts of the nation are statistically significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels respectively; all other trends are insignificant

slide17

MODELED GLOBAL WARMING

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

slide21

NJ PA

DE MD WV

WV VA

slide22

NJ

PA

DE

MD

WV

WV

VA

slide24

OBSERVED SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS NEAR MID-ATLANTIC STATES OF THE USA

(2009 Technical report NOS CO-OPS 053)

1957-2006

Trend=44.7 cm/100 yr

1957-2006

Trend=34.4 cm/100 yr

1957-2006

Trend=29.0 cm/100 yr

slide27

AR5. IPCC WG1 REPORT 2013.

Sea Level Change: Paleo, Observed and Model Predicted Estimates.

slide28

Greenhouse Global Warming.

Observed datafor

CARBON DIOXIDE and METHANE

slide29

1995-2012 TREND

19.46 ppm/10yr

19.68 ppm/10yr

19.31 ppm/10yr

19.57 ppm/10yr

19.07 ppm/10yr

19.12 ppm/10yr

18.78 ppm/10yr

slide30

THESE USA CO2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE

Trend=11.9 ppm/10 yr

Trend=10.3 ppm/10 yr

Trend=14.1 ppm/10 yr

slide31

MEAN TREND

1995-2012

14.06 ppm/10yr

slide33

THESE ARETHE FIVE LONGEST HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF THEM ARE VALID.

ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE TOO SHORT.

slide35

Observed century-scale climatic variations in the Mid-Atlantic States of the USA correspond well to the scenario of greenhouse anthropogenic global warming based on climate change modeling studies. We should expect that many further model predicted changes in our regional climatic conditions are inevitable. Unlimited global warming is going to make our climates very uncomfortable. In any case, regional climatic studies are often underfunded or not funded at all. Monitoring of the main greenhouse gases, Carbon Dioxide and Methane, in the Mid Atlantic States is not sufficient or nonexistent. Due to the absence of funds, the most talented students are moving towards remote sensing or other well funded research paths. The Climate Change problem needs your attention.

slide37

100 yr Averages (ºC) & Trends (ºC)/100 yr

Mean Variances (ºC)2& Trends (ºC)2/100 yr

  • What we are looking for:
  • Asymmetry in trends of Tmax & Tmin. We expect that: Trend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax).
  • 2. Trends in Variances.
  • What we see here:
  • 1. An Asymmetry does depend on station.
  • 2. All these three stations display a century scale decreasing trend in variances of Tmax. Trends in variances of Tmin are uncertain.

Tmax

Variances

Tmin

Trends

Trends

observed increases in very heavy precipitation during the 1958 to 2010 period usgcrp 2009
Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation during the 1958 to 2010 period (USGCRP 2009)

Annual

Percent increases in the amount falling in very heavy rain events defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2010 for each region

Changes in the Eastern half of the nation are statistically significant at the 0.05 or higher levels and over the Great Plains, at the 0.1 level

slide40

SEA LEVEL RISE and ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MELTING

ETKINS & VINNIKOV, not yet published

slide43

Russia, 1976: DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING

Arctic

N.H.

Budyko & Vinnikov, 1976