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Demand in the next century

Demand in the next century. First what issues have we addressed? Typical issue differ depending on the type of data: time series versus cross section. TS issues: period of observation, functional form, dynamics , endogeneity , separability , testing/imposing restrictions,

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Demand in the next century

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  1. Demand in the next century

  2. First what issues have we addressed? • Typical issue differ depending on the type of data: time series versus cross section.

  3. TS issues: • period of observation, • functional form, • dynamics, • endogeneity, • separability, • testing/imposing restrictions, • demographic and other effects, and • changes in tastes & preferences.

  4. CS issues: • demographic effects, • adult equivalence scales, • endogeneity, • zero consumption and the reasons for them, • household production, • unit values and • quality.

  5. I have a bibliography of 114 meat demand or related studies from 1970 through 2010. • These studies used a number of approaches to address a number of issues

  6. Summary of findings: • Price & Expenditure Elasticities • Price & Scale Flexibilities

  7. The Future? • Developed world issues: • Obesity and demand • Food safety • FAH v FAFH • Organic

  8. World issues • World population growth by 2100 • UN projections (billions, 2004) • low 5.5 medium 9.1 zero 9.1 high 14.0 • Income growth • per capita GDP 2008 - $9000 • growth rate 5% per year over previous 40 years (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/introduction.asp)

  9. Climate • limits on both population & income growth • Energy • same as climate… • Health • potential antibiotic-resistant infections • epidemics

  10. Religion • Implications for meat demand • Household demographics • Increased demand for convenience

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