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Transmission Needs in a Fully Renewable Pan-European Electricity System IRENEC, June 2012

Transmission Needs in a Fully Renewable Pan-European Electricity System IRENEC, June 2012. Renewable Energy Research Group Aarhus University. Group Leader Martin Greiner Professor, System Engineering greiner@imf.au.dk. Main Research Topics Large-scale renewable energy systems

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Transmission Needs in a Fully Renewable Pan-European Electricity System IRENEC, June 2012

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  1. Transmission Needs in a Fully Renewable Pan-European Electricity SystemIRENEC, June 2012

  2. Renewable Energy Research GroupAarhus University Group Leader Martin Greiner Professor, System Engineering greiner@imf.au.dk • Main Research Topics • Large-scale renewable energy systems • Physics of complex networks • Wind farm turbulence modeling • Fundamental Research Approach • Independent of policies or technological advances • Strongly dependent on reliable and thorough weather data • Based on simple mathematical models

  3. Model Data Weather Data 50 km x 50 km 1 hour resolution 8 year period Load Data 1 hour resolution 8 year period Possible Power Production Solar Energy Wind Energy Allows modelling of hourly consumption/production for 27 European countries

  4. Weather Variations

  5. Mismatch Calculation Hourly mismatch of generation and consumption: W(t): Normalized hourly wind power generation. S(t): Normalized hourly solar power generation. L(t): Normalized hourly electricity demand (load). Power generation is normalized according to energy output and not installed capacity.

  6. Residual Load Instantaneous mismatch: Residual load needs to be covered by power balancing from conventional sources!

  7. Optimal Mix of Wind and Solar Wind powerSolar PV powerLoad Wind + Solar PVLoad Optimising for Storage Energy ≈ 60% wind power + 40% solar power Balancing Energy ≈ 70% wind power + 30% solar power Balancing Power ≈ >70% wind power + <30% solar power

  8. A Fully Renewable Europe • Analysed Scenario • 27 European Countries • Annual Renewable Production = Annual Consumption • Existing links as of winter 2011-2012 • Optimal mix installed in all countries ≈ 70% Wind, 30% Solar What are the benefits of transmission for a fully renewable Europe? What is a sufficiently large transmission system?

  9. Unconstrained Power Transmission Quantifying the benefit of transmission is done through the total need for balancing Bn =(Δn-(KF)n)- Which is a result of • Mismatch • Net Exports

  10. Unconstrained Power Transmission We identify sufficiently large quantiles on transmission limitations.

  11. Constrained Power Transmission • Copper Plate transmission roughly 10x actual installed capacity. • 99% Quantiles roughly 5x actual installed capacity. • Several ways to interpolate • Linear Increase of current limits • Linear Reduction of 99% Quantile limits • Implementation of intermediate Quantiles • These constraints implemented as limits on flow capacity

  12. Constrained Problem Statement Constraint implementation effects the following changes in the problem statement.

  13. Constrained Power Transmission

  14. Constrained Power Transmission Availability of export to neighbours

  15. Renewable Energy Research GroupAarhus University Martin Greiner(professor) Morten G. Rasmussen (postdoc) Gorm B. Andresen (postdoc) DominikHeide(former ph.d/postdoc) Rolando A. Rodriguez(ph.d. student) Sarah Becker (ph.d. student) Thank you for your attention!

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