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Strengthening long-term growth in Argentina D. Artana, E. Bour, J.L. Bour y N. Susmel. OECD Seminar “Beyond the crisis – Returning to sustainable growth in Latin America” Paris, November 24 th 2010. Labor regulation is also rigid in our estimate of the EPL3. More rigidity. Source: FIEL.

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strengthening long term growth in argentina d artana e bour j l bour y n susmel

Strengthening long-term growth in Argentina D. Artana, E. Bour, J.L. Bour y N. Susmel

OECD Seminar “Beyond the crisis – Returning to sustainable growth in Latin America”

Paris, November 24th 2010

slide9

And the tax burden is also high

Source: Artana, D. & I. Templado “Is the Argentine Revenue Effort Too High?” 2010.

slide10

New Exploration Contracts between 3.5 & 5

  • Manufacturerspayonaverage US$ 3 per million BTU
slide11
Price controls of energy products are one factor that explains a declining stock of reserves and production of natural gas
slide12

Therewas a reduction in informality, but 2003-09 averageissimilar to 1993-2000

Informality rates

slide13

Reallocation from low productivity to high productivity sectors was not very important

  • Within-sector more consistent with some external force that drives labor productivity up in all economic sectors
slide14

And quality of education deteriorated in spite of some increase in public expenditures as % of GDP

Quality improved

Quality worsened

we estimated determinants of growth in argentina in the period 1981 2009
We estimated determinants of growth in Argentina in the period 1981-2009
  • Stock of capital adjusted by utilization
  • Labor adjusted by number of hours worked
    • We also opened for Formal and Informal Workers
  • Country risk as separate variable
  • Terms of trade (Kehoe and Ruhl, 2007; Becker and Mauro, 2003; Edwards, 2007; Cavalcanti Ferreira et al (2010)
    • Gain is similar to technological improvement
slide16

We can estimate how much the gain in terms of trade contributed to growth in 2003-2009

    • One third when informal employment is included
    • 73% in our best estimate that takes into account lagged effects.
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Good luck made a substantial contribution to Argentina’s growth since 2003
  • Fiscal challenges that were a key factor behind Argentina’s dismal performance in the past are not such a big challenge (low debt, moderate deficit). But filling the gap with taxes will be costly given the already high tax rates on formal activities
  • Evidence points to the need to improve the quality of micro policies and the investment climate … or to bet for permanent luck