New York City: The Rockaways Is New York City prepared to deal with the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the Rockaways

1. New York City: The Rockaways Is New York City prepared to deal with the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the Rockaways? Robert Tracey and Marquise McGraw Public Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Science Mr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/Mentor Dr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science Advisor Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science Advisor

2. Our Region of Study: The Rockaways • Mean elevation: 5.5 feet above sea level. (Rosenzweig et al, 2001) • An established residential, high-density community, mixed socioeconomic levels • Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis Park generates revenue annually for the city in tolls and retail activities along the beach. • Served by only one major elevated subway (the ‘A’ line and its shuttle ‘S’) and by two low-lying bridges, the Marine Parkway Bridge and the Cross-Bay Memorial Bridge.

3. The Jamaica BayRegion Source: 2000 Maps a la Carte, Inc

4. Sea Level Rise: A Global Concern • Mean sea level has risen globally by 25 cm (1-2.5 mm/yr) on average over the last century. (IPCC, 2001). • Global warming is also occurring, causing temperatures to gradually increase worldwide. • Global warming is exacerbating sea level rise, due to the thermal expansion of the water which results from temperature change. Based on IPCC estimates, sea level could rise by another 50 cm (5 mm/yr) by 2100. • Increased sea levels will vastly affect coastal regions such as the Rockaways, comprising 25% of the United States’ land area but housing over 65% of North America’s population (IPCC, 2001). • Increased sea levels will lead to increased frequency of severe floods.

5. Source: Marquise McGraw, Bronx H.S. of Science Data provided by: Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA GISS

6. Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge • The primary producer of damage from tropical and extratropical storms is the storm surge, which can result in severe coastal flooding (Lutgens, 1998) • The magnitude of the flooding depends on the intensity of the storm, how the storm makes landfall, high tide, phase of the moon, and the steepness of the continental shelf where the storm hits. (Lutgens, 1998) • Strong winds and torrential rains only add to the damage of a given storm.

7. Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Source: National Hurricane Service

8. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Source: Lutgens and Tarbuck, The Atmosphere (1998)

9. Future Storm Trends • Storm surge: May increase up to 13.5 feet over next century as a result of sea level change. (Neumann, 2000) • More “100- year floods” can be expected. (Rosenzweig, 2001) • Nor’Easters: Decrease in number of strong storms, increase in number of weaker ones. (Rosenzweig, 2001) • Hurricanes: Overall increase in potential hurricane intensity. (Rosenzweig, 2001) • Storm Tracks: Possibly more northerly storm tracks, much uncertainty though. (Neumann, 2000)

10. Source: Robert Tracey, Bronx High School of Science Data provided by: Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA GISS

11. Physical Impacts of Major Storms in the Rockaways • Inevitable inundation to mass-transit (“A” line and LIRR); tracks run only 7 ft. above sea level. • Marine Parkway and Cross Bay Bridge would experience serious flooding. Result: disruption of commerce (e.g. food delivery), traffic backups. • Rockaway Beach - increase in shoreline erosion from 1 meter in 2020, up to 4 meters in 2080. • Possibility that shoreline will become permanently inundated (i.e. no more beach).

12. Economic Impacts of Major Storms in the Rockaways • Loss of toll and mass transit revenues. • Severe reduction in value of real estate. • Costs of shoreline nourishment may increase if a more cost-efficient sediment management plan is not implemented soon (Neumann, 2000). • Loss of recreational value of the Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis park, leading to lost revenues and a blow to the local economy. • Loss of property inundated by rising waters.

13. John F. Kennedy International Airport View from Jamaica Bay Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

14. Channel Bridge View from “A” Subway Line Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

15. Cross Bay Bridge View from Beach 120th Street, the Rockaways (notice MTA New York City Transit “S” line bridge in the background) “S” Line Bridge Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

16. “Scratchitti” Howard Beach Housing at Risk View from “A” Subway Line Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

17. Far Rockaway Housing at Risk Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

18. Construction Yard View from Broad Channel Station Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

19. Jamaica Bay Marshlands View from “A” Subway Line Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw

20. Comparison with Other Major Events • The 1992 Nor’easter devastated Manhattan Island. The FDR drive was flooded at 80th Street. The Hoboken PATH terminal was completely inundated (Rosenzweig, 2001). • A 1950 Noreaster flooded the Lower East Side in Manhattan as well as LaGuardia Airport. (Fox M., 2002) • The NYC Subway System has been flooded twice in the past few years due to Hurricane Floyd and even a strong thunderstorm. (Fox M., 2002) • Because the Rockaways are on lower ground, the flooding would have even more severe consequences.

21. Reliability of 2000 Projections • For the time being, they are the best guess of future storm and sea behavior available to us. • Further testing is necessary to validate and correct or update future trends. • More research is needed into future storm activity, specifically storm tracks and intensities. • Better models should be developed to produce scenarios that we can place more statistical confidence in.

22. Possible Solutions • New York City should implement a thorough evacuation procedure through Nassau County. • Levies or dikes should be built to protect main roads and mass transit systems. • Shore-side housing should be discouraged or banned entirely. Or, reinforcements should be built to strengthen existing housing at risk. • A tunnel, if properly constructed on high enough ground, could connect the Rockaways with the mainland, eliminating the need for bridges.

23. Ways to Get Government Moving • Provide realistic and accurate estimates of costs. Analyze the costs and risks of modifying structures in preparation for flooding versus the costs of damage from flooding. • Convince policymakers that insurance rates will rise with increased risk of flooding, which will be bad for the economy of the Rockaways.

24. References/Contributors • Lutgens and Tarbuck. The Atmosphere. Prentice Hall, 1998. • Manning, M and Nobre, C., eds., IPCC Technical Summary: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 2002. Available online: <http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2TARtechsum.pdf> • Neumann, James et.al, Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change: A Review of Impacts to United States Coasts. 2000. Available Online: <http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_sealevel.cfm> • Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Solecki, William, eds. Climate Change and A Global City: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Columbia Earth Institute, 2001 • Titus, James G. et. al, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back The Sea. Available online: <http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/impacts/sealevel/cost_of_holding.html>