How to reform public transit by Ted Balaker Reason Foundation www.reason.org

1. How to reform public transit by Ted Balaker Reason Foundation www.reason.org

2. Two words

3. Let’s go from the theoretical to the specific …

4. Let’s step away from transportation policy altogether.

5. Imagine a New Welfare Program • Purpose: feed people

6. Imagine a New Welfare Program • How service is delivered: Not food stamps, govt-run supermarkets.

7. Imagine a new welfare program • Whom should we serve? • The hungriest (welfare dependent) or the well-fed (“choice” eaters).

8. “Choice” eaters are difficult to attract because they can choose to eat elsewhere.

9. When people are used to this

10. It’s hard to get them to eat this.

11. If you really want choice eaters … • Must spend more • Need fancy meals to meet their higher expectations

12. But what about those who aren’t choice eaters?

13. To someone with no food this is a big improvement.

14. We only have so much money—how should we spend it? 1. Buying many meals for the hungry 2. Buying fewer meals for “choice” eaters

15. Say we decide to buy fewer meals for the “choice” eaters.

16. What have we done? • Spent lavishly, providing welfare to those who need it least. • Neglected those who need it most. • How many people would support this program?

17. But often that’s how transit agencies operate.

18. Expensive rail transit for those least in need. Average “choice” rider has access to several cars.

19. Neglect those who need transportation most Transit dependent person has no car.

20. How are poor hurt? • Buses rerouted to serve rail lines (more transfers). • Divert money from bus to pay for rail cost overruns. • Pot of funds devoted to rail yields far less transportation improvement.

21. Insult to Injury • Few choice riders use transit anyway • Since 1970, spent $25 billion • 1% of America gets to work by rail

22. Why don’t more choice riders take transit?

23. Even with mounting congestion, auto travel is still much faster.

24. Rail or Car? • 16 mph 35 mph (worst-case scenario) • Transfers No transfers • Few destinations Go anywhere you want • Scheduled service Go whenever you want

25. Learning from food welfare • Govt food programs not the best way to help the hungry. • But the approach is better than the approach to transportation.

26. Food Welfare • Vouchers not supermarkets • Private innovation • Welfare recipient has choice • Kept administrative costs low

27. Transportation Welfare • Not vouchers, funded bureaucracies • Outlawed many kinds of competition • Costs shot up • Innovation suffered

28. Food Welfare vs. Transportation Welfare • Food stamps focus on the needy. • Public transit focuses more and more on choice riders.

29. How to reform transit? • Focus transportation welfare on those who need it most. • But that doesn’t mean we have to pit the well-off against the poor.

30. Common ground • The well-off are overwhelmingly drivers. • The poor are overwhelmingly bus riders. • Both groups travel mainly on roads. • A common enemy: traffic congestion

31. What to do?

32. Fight the common enemy. • Here’s one way …

33. Virtual Exclusive Busways (VEBs)

34. How to make a VEB • Step 1: Fall out of love with carpool lanes.

35. Carpool lanes just aren’t good congestion-busters.

36. It’s hard to get the flow right. • Some carpool lanes are underused. • Lots of valuable space goes to waste. • Some are clogged. • No more incentive to carpool.

37. Carpool or Fampool? “Most carpooling today is not carpooling in the sense we knew it just a few years ago: a voluntary arrangement among co-workers or neighbors. That is dying; most of the surviving carpool activity consists of family members with parallel destinations and timing.” Alan Pisarski, “Commuting in America.”

38. Carpool or Fampool? In 2001, fampools accounted for 83% of journey-to-work carpools. Source: Nancy McGuckin and Nandu Srinivasan, “The Journey-to-Work in the Context of Daily Travel,” 2005.

39. Carpooling: Most common when least needed Congestion is worst during the morning and afternoon, but …

40. Carpooling peaks in the evening.

41. Relatively easy to shift away from carpool lanes in Atlanta. • Very small portion of planned HOV network has been completed.

42. How to make a VEB • Step 2: Replace with HOT Lanes

43. HOT Lanes • Variable pricing • Keeps traffic moving • 65mph vs 20mph • Electronic Toll Collection • Popular • Equitable

44. From HOV to VEB • Step 3: Reserve space for transit buses, vanpools, and some carpools. • In Houston it’s 25%

45. Result: A virtual equivalent of an exclusive busway. • Less costly, more functional.

46. VEB: Something for everyone • Transit users get better service. • Motorists get a free flowing escape route. • Local govts get new funding source.

47. And there’s still incentive to carpool. Tolling preserves incentives to ride-share, by • Sharing the toll with others. • Not leaving you stuck in traffic when your carpool buddy stays at work late. Source: UCLA Ph.D. dissertation by Eugene Kim, “HOT Lanes: A Comparative Evaluation of Costs, Benefits, and Performance.”

48. We’ve covered a lot of ground If you remember one thing, let it be this …

49. I have a book for sale!

50. (Shameless Plug) The Road More Traveled Why the Congestion Crisis Matters More Than You Think, And What We Can Do About It By Ted Balaker and Sam Staley “Should be required reading” Joel Kotkin, Author The City: A Global History “Buy their book, read it, then send it to your favorite political representative.” Prof. Peter Gordon, USC Available September 26 from Rowman & Littlefield