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GLOBAL CHANGE THREATS TO HYDROLOGY & TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING & SPECIES INVASION IN HAWAI‘I. Thomas Giambelluca University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa. EPSCoR Water Dynamics Workshop Burlington, VT 10 November 2008. Water, water, everywhere. Setting

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Thomas giambelluca university of hawai i at m noa

GLOBAL CHANGE THREATS TO HYDROLOGY & TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING & SPECIES INVASION IN HAWAI‘I

Thomas Giambelluca

University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa

EPSCoR Water Dynamics Workshop

Burlington, VT

10 November 2008


Water water everywhere
Water, water, everywhere . . .

Setting

  • Extreme geographical isolation

  • High water demand

  • High inter-annual rainfall variability

  • Prone to water shortage


Expectations and observations of warming shift attention to higher latitude land areas
Expectations and observations of warming shift attention to higher latitude land areas

High-latitudes: +2.3oC

1920-2005

Tropics: +0.8oC

1920-2005

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)


Thomas giambelluca university of hawai i at m noa

However, while land areas have warmed fastest at high latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)


Pacific decadal oscillation pdo
Pacific Decadal Oscillation latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude(PDO)

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007); also see Mantua et al. (1997) and Power et al. (1999)


El ni o southern oscillation enso
El Ni latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitudeño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007); also see Trenberth and Caron (2000)


Hawai i temperature index
Hawai‘i Temperature Index latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

GLOBAL TRENDS:

1906-2005: 0.074oC per decade

1976-2005: 0.177oC per decade

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)

Source: Giambelluca et al. (2008)


Hti pdo sst
HTI—PDO—SST latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

PDO

SST

Source: Giambelluca et al. (2008)


Hot nights
Hot Nights latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

*Significant at p = 0.5

Source: Giambelluca et al. (2008)


Decrease in day night temperature difference
Decrease in Day-Night Temperature Difference latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

Source: Giambelluca et al. (2008)


Hawai i rainfall long term decrease
Hawai‘i Rainfall: Long-Term Decrease latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

Hawai‘i (winter) Rainfall Index (HRI)

Source: Chu and Chen (2005)


Trade wind inversion
Trade-Wind Inversion latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

  • Mean altitude ~2200 m (7200 ft)

  • Frequency ~80%

  • Stable atmospheric layer

  • Forms a barrier to rising air

  • Because rising air is the predominant means by which clouds form, cloud development is capped at the TWI level

  • As a result, relatively thin clouds produce less precipitation when TWI is present

  • Climate changes resulting in either more frequent or lower altitude TWI will cause a reduction in rainfall


Effect of inversion on rainfall
Effect of Inversion on Rainfall latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

HaleNet: Haleakalā Maui

Source: Adapted from Tran (1995)


Effect of inversion on rainfall1
Effect of Inversion on Rainfall latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

HaleNet: Haleakalā Maui

Source: Adapted from Tran (1995)


Twi trends
TWI Trends latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

Source: Cao et al. (2007)


Warming and ecosystem services
Warming and Ecosystem Services latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

Asner et al. (in review)


Warming carbon dynamics
Warming & Carbon Dynamics latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

  • Native forest site currently a net carbon sink (2.8-3.4 Mg C ha-1 yr-1)

  • Gross primary production controlled mainly by PAR

  • Ecosystem respiration controlled by temperature

  • Each 1ºC increase in temperature causes a 15% increase in respiration loss

  • Warming may reduce competitiveness of native trees versus invasive trees


Species invasion hydrological services
Species Invasion & Hydrological Services latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

  • Species invasion is a major environmental problem in Hawai‘i

  • Success of invasive trees may be facilitated by warming

  • What secondary impacts do these trees have on hydrological services?

  • Psidium cattleianum is the most widespread invasive tree in Hawaii


Field sites
Field Sites latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

  • Invaded Forest Site

    • ‘ohia forest invaded by Psidium cattleianum (strawberry guava)

  • Native Forest Site

    • Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ohia)

    • Cibotium spp. (hapu‘u; tree fern)


Thomas giambelluca university of hawai i at m noa

ET latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitudeinvaded 27% more than ETnative

ET

Available Energy


Thomas giambelluca university of hawai i at m noa

  • SUMMARY latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

  • Hawai‘i is highly vulnerable to and prone to water shortage

  • Tropical areas like Hawai‘i are subject to significant impacts of global warming

  • Trends suggest Hawai‘i is getting warmer and drier

  • Warming will have negative impacts on native forests and favor invasive trees

  • Invasive trees can significantly reduce water availability

  • Findings suggest severe combined and synergistic effects of climate change and species invasion on Hawai‘i’s terrestrial ecosystems and their services


Thomas giambelluca university of hawai i at m noa

THANK YOU latitudes, warming of the Pacific Ocean shows cyclical patterns with respect to latitude

thomas@hawaii.edu