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Future Scenarios for Tertiary Education in 2016 evolving designs with e-learning. Niki Davis University of Canterbury Professor of e-Learning DEANZ President and PI NZ Tertiary Education Summit (HE series), Wellington, November 2011. Tenakoutou Katoa Kia Ora.

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future scenarios for tertiary education in 2016 evolving designs with e learning

Future Scenarios for Tertiary Education in 2016evolving designs with e-learning

Niki Davis

University of Canterbury Professor of e-Learning

DEANZ President and PI

NZ Tertiary Education Summit (HE series), Wellington, November 2011

tenakoutou katoa kia ora
TenakoutouKatoaKia Ora
  • How e-learning design can improve the learning experience
  • The benefits and challenges to student engagement
  • New developments including e-assessment and OERu
  • Questions & comments

DEANZ requests delegates’ support in our exciting project to help inform leadership of education, particularly tertiary education, in these challenging times - in our Forum and Blog here: http://akoaotearoa.ac.nz/projects/2016-scenario-guide-effective-tertiary...

Or email: Niki.Davis@Canterbury.ac.nzTwitter #DEANZ2016

deanz 2016 project team in july 2011
DEANZ 2016 Project Team in July 2011

Inset: Gordon Suddaby (Researcher), Bill Anderson (Researcher) & Mark Nichols (Mentor)

In group: Janinka Babcock (Designer), Pinelopi Zaka (RA), Niki Davis (PI), Julie Mackey (Mentor), Andrew Higgins (Researcher)


Scenario Set for 2016 V1.0


Quality branded consortia

Self determination

Facing NZ employers, professions & iwi

Facing the academy

The “supermarket”

Minimal change



The Axes


“Students should be able to select more freely for their courses... we need fewer restrictions on what can be taken toward a programme”

(NZ leader in ITP)

  • Horizontal
    • “Mismatch between the outputs from tertiary education and the needs in the workforce” (European expert)

1. Minimal change

  • Tertiary education continues on the same track
  • Reduced focus on the trades as global markets flatten employment is this area.
  • Flexibility for students is apparently improved through increasing mapping of courses.
  • Relatively few developments, held back by:
  • ‘Facing’ the academy
  • Concentration of programmes/ qualifications into few or one institution
  • The lack of development of national agencies e.g. NZQA, CUAP
  • Research performance assessment

Minimal change

“A few years ago New Zealand saw the emergence of strategic thinking and action around blended learning, connectivity and educational development. That tide has receded because of a greater emphasis on individual institutions making their own way in constrained circumstances”

(NZ consultant)


2. The Supermarket

Prescriptive standards set out to face employers, professions and iwis drive the production of massive range of courses and units of study/training. Effective where relevant , e.g. up-skilling.

Research and consulting services reduce their connection with teaching in tertiary education.

Digital technologies are employed to increase production & efficiency of guidance & assessment of students, but personalisation is limited.

A future MUVE game may engage thousands of students online while generating individual learning analytics for teachers, who guide use of supplementary resources (inc .OER)

The “supermarket”

“– a significant number of faculty teaching introductory courses are using course packages from publishers. …

- We will become much smarter about what we can share and what we can benefit from.”

(USA university leader and technology expert)

“ … an affirmative action policy to foster more Maori and Pasifika students to study at university? …

(Pasifika Leader)

horizon technology outlook for nz tertiary education 2011 2016
Horizon Technology Outlook for NZ Tertiary Education 2011-2016

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less

  • Cloud Computing
  • Collaborative Environments
  • Mobile Apps
  • Tablet Computing

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years

  • Digital Identity
  • Electronic Publishing
  • Game-Based Learning
  • Personal Learning Environments

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years

  • Augmented Reality
  • Gesture-Based Computing
  • Next-Generation Batteries
  • Smart Objects

Launch this week:


Auckland at AUT


Wellington at Massey

top challenges
Top Challenges
  • Digital media literacy continues its rise in importance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.
  • Economic pressures and new models of education are presenting unprecedented competition to traditional models of the university.
  • Most academics are not using new and compelling technologies for learning and teaching, nor for organising their own research.
  • New modes of scholarship are presenting significant challenges to libraries and university collections, how scholarship is documented, and the business models to support these activities.

3. Quality branded consortia

“Emphasis on diversity and caring for minorities could become a strength and part of the branding for NZ. The emphasis on success for Maori and Pacifika might be attractive to a larger Asian market, ... NZ. It may also be seen as an interesting model for smaller European countries” (European expert)

The academy responds to increasing demands from students for programmes that link them to professional networks within & beyond NZ.

Consortium brands bring NZ tertiary education into the global market as a partner with an edge on creativity through diversity.

Increases in interdisciplinary programmes and faculty collaboration include students working on project in work mode of multinationals; products showcased in e-portfolios.

Digital technologies enable project work, links to business & OERs.

A small pool of high quality among the massive growth of resources reassures the nation that tertiary education is valuable.

Quality branded consortia

The representatives of the founding anchor partners of the OERu initiative in Otago Polytechnic, November 2011
  • The OER university is a virtual collaboration of like-minded institutions committed to creating flexible pathways for OER learners to gain formal academic credit. The OER university aims to provide free learning to all students worldwide using OER learning materials …

Self determination emerges to become part of life-long learning first in school projects. Staff recruit and work with mentors in employment & communities who motivate, add QA & benefits for their organisations.

Networked digital technologies & analytics integrate with learning /assessment. Interdisciplinary materials complement vocational & research opportunities.

Advising, library and other support staff play key roles in these creative learning teams that emerge within tertiary institutions. Students & advisors draw as needed on expertise captured in lectures, tutorials, readings & multimedia. Space utilised in different ways.

A few overseas partnerships, inc. multinationals & Pacific communities.

4. Self determination

Self determination

Note: Also borrows from sectors 1 and 3

quotes from leaders on 4 self determination
Quotes from leaders on 4. Self Determination

Self determination

“The tertiary sector, and universities in particular focus on excellence and scholarship but more effort might be made to engage with other cultures and ethnic groups in New Zealand. That engagement may work to recognize and integrate other kinds of understanding and enhance the Maori and Pasifika world views through the application of good will and commitment to social justice and equity in New Zealand.” (Pasifika leader)

“a change, from the ‘institution bound logic’ to an ‘individual-based logic’ based on the ‘learning space’ of each individual student which is partly based in the university, at home, in the community, [work] , and en route between these places. In essence the tertiary education process follows where the student goes and when they move.” (European expert)

questions comments niki davis@canterbury ac nz university of canterbury e learning lab
Questions & commentsNiki.Davis@Canterbury.ac.nzUniversity of Canterbury e-Learning Lab

Project web site for more information & input please, kia ora!


Note CC permission restrictions

Thanks to

  • DEANZ and participants including today
  • Ako Aotearoa for network funding, esp. Dr. Peter Coolbear
  • TeLRG as Reference Group
  • Researchers’ universities: AUT, Canterbury, Massey & Otago
  • Horizon collaborators especially Larry Johnston, NMC, USA


  • Interview leaders & gather relevant literature
  • Analyse using JISC tools

Leaders’ organisations

  • Organisations represented by leaders interviewed:
  • Universities, ITP, PTE, Employers

JISC Methodology 1-4

from JISC, 2010 http://www.jisc.ac.uk/publications/generalpublications/2008/scenarioplanningflyer.aspx


Next steps

  • 1. Review and gather more data
  • Socially network this V1.0
    • Ako Aotearoa website, Facebook, Twitter, Webinar etc.
    • Workshops alongside NZ Horizon Report events 21-25/11/11
    • Panel at e-Learning Futures conference led by Andrew Higgins 30/11/11
    • Here at Tertiary Education Summit by Niki Davis 28/11/11
  • Gather more data
    • 1-2 more interviews to improve sample of leaders
    • Clarify underlying factors
  • 2. Produce and disseminate V2.0
    • Socially network the updated scenario set
    • Paper for DEANZ journal JOFDL
    • Workshop at DEANZ 2012 conference 10-13/4/12 Wellington
responses to questions comments
Responses to questions & comments

Comments from all webinar participants invited now – we will use the Chat