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Development of carbonaceous aerosols emission inventory from fossil fuel combustion at European, National and Regional scales by Bruno GUILLAUME and Cathy Liousse (Laboratoire d’Aérologie) Outline

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slide1
Development of carbonaceous aerosols emission inventory from

fossil fuel combustion

at European, National and Regional scales

by Bruno GUILLAUME and Cathy Liousse (Laboratoire d’Aérologie)

slide2

Outline

1). To Develop a new european emission inventory (EI) for BC and OCp (NEWEUR), to improve understanding of the largest differences

in the existing EI (and there are !)

2). To simply relate these differences to the source/fuel types and emittive regions

3). To compare model/measurements BC concentrations obtained with NEWEUR and existing EI separately introduced in TM4 model

slide4

HOW MUCH DO FOSSIL FUELS + BIO FUELS CONTRIBUTE IN EUROPE

TO BC ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS ?

BC (ff+bf) J&L (2006) EVOLUTIVE EF

BC (agric. waste burning)

BC (boreal fires)

BC (tropical fires)

0

200

500

2500

10000

40000

100000

150000

tons/yr/3°x2°

slide5

DERIVING THE EMISSIONS OF BC AND OCp

large split of

technologies

under-developed

emission

controls

semi-developed

developed

Pros

Pros

1). « lev.dev. »-dependent:

accounting for both « TECHNOLOGY »

and « TECHNOLOGY USAGE »

2). Choice of EF based on real measurements of EF(BC) and EF(OCp)

« technology-based » with a large diversity of technologies

Cons

Cons

1). A lot of techno but not enough measurements

2). Choice of EF(BC) and EF(OCp) based on EF(PM) and estimates of submicronic, BC/PM and OCp/PM fractions

EF not accounting for norms after 1990 in Cooke et al. (1999)

Now corrected in Junker and Liousse (2006)

Particularly large differences

in Europe (Schaap et al., 2004), a

region where emissions are often

supposed to be rather controlled

[Cooke et al, 1999; Junker&Liousse, 2006] or [Bond et al., 2004] ?

Cooke et al, J&L

Bond et al

Fuel-

And

activity-dependent

emissions

Large

differences

at global scale

slide6

OBJECTIVE HERE : IMPROVING J&L’s BC AND OCp INVENTORIES

IN EUROPE (Guillaume&Liousse, 2006, in prep.)

Replacement of « lev.dev. based » approach

by « technology-based » approach in Europe, assuming:

TECHNOLOGY USAGE less critical parameter in Europe

than in developing countries

MAJOR CHANGES in EF vs. Cooke et al. (1999) in

domestic diesel (-), trafic diesel (-), lignite (-)

3). For other technologies in NEWEUR,

EF derived from : EF values for REF technology

variations of CO/CO2 relatively to REF value of CO/CO2

« CO/CO2 method » :

CO/CO2, as an indicator of combustion completeness

High impact on EF(BC, OCp) for biofuels (fireplaces > stoves), for industrial coal,lignite (fbc<pc<grate)

BUT Low impact on coal emissions (pc is major contributor)

Low impact on road diesel (pass car ~ trucks ~ buses)

High impact on road gasoline (pass cars < 2-strokes)

4). EF controlled derived from: EF uncontrolled

abattement factors (IIASA)

(fuel & tech dependent)

Very large impact on road diesel (Euro norms)

NEWEUR

1). Use of IIASA fuel-consumption dataset (Klimont et al., 2002) for years

1990,1995,2000,2005 and 2010

(detailed by controlled/uncontrolled fractions)

2).Choice of EF(BC, OCp): for some uncontrolled tech. (REF technologies)

EF are taken equal to J&L’s EF for semi-dev countries:

i).ΔEF(BC) linked toΔ(CO/CO2): the more complete the combustion (low CO/CO2), the lower EF(BC)

ii).Δ(BC/OCp) linked to Δ(CO/CO2): the more complete the combustion, the higher BC/OCp.

slide7

RESULTING EF

NEWEUR vs. Bond: Main differences in coal EF (dom, indus) and lignite

slide9

SPATIALIZED BC EMISSIONS COMPARED TO EXISTING INVENTORIES – YEAR 1995

BC emissions by NEWEUR

(no control scenario)

BC emissions by J&L (2006) (EF 1990)

BC emissions by NEWEUR

(with controls scenario)

BC emissions by Schaap et al. (2004)

BC emissions by J&L (2006) (EVOLVING EF)

0

200

500

2500

10000

40000

100000

150000

tons/yr/3°x2°

slide10

FOCUSING ON FUEL/SECTOR TYPE…

Germany –

5.5 Gg/yr

Germany –

7.2 Gg/yr

Poland –

5.9 Gg/yr

Poland –

10.2 Gg/yr

Germany –

19.4 Gg/yr

Germany –

2.5 Gg/yr

Poland –

53 Gg/yr

Poland –

98 Gg/yr

Industrial sector

Domestic sector

Combined sector

(mobile sources)

In Schaap et al. (2004) inventory

260 Gg/yr

90 Gg/yr

86 Gg/yr

In NEWEUR inventory

1). LESS THAN 20% DIFFERENCES IN EU-COUNTRIES (in agreement with Kuppiainen and Klimont, 2006)

2). 50% (DOM.) -80%(INDUS.) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON POLAND VALUES

URGENT NEED FOR BETTER EF VALUES FOR COAL / LIGNITE (DOMESTIC AND INDUSTRIAL) !!

300 Gg/yr

190 Gg/yr

220 Gg/yr

slide11

ROAD TRAFFIC: STRONG VARIATIONS AT REGIONAL SCALE ?

Degradate at 25kmx25km

61 Gg/yr

kt/an/10kmx10km

kt/an/25kmx25km

kt/an/10kmx10km

kt/an/1kmx1km

30

30

30

0.3

12

0.1

12

12

6

6

0.06

6

4

0.04

4

4

0.03

3

3

3

2

2

2

0.02

1.5

1.5

0.015

1.5

60 Gg/yr

1

0.01

1

1

0.4

0.004

0.4

0.4

European France 25kmx25km

0.1

0.001

0.1

0.1

0.00025

0.025

0.025

0.025

0.005

0.005

0.005

0.00005

0.002

0.002

0.00002

0.002

0

0

0

0

Similar emissions,

better spatialisation

2.7 Gg/yr

3.6 Gg/yr

Escompte zoom

at 10kmx10km

Better spatialisation

+

Total emissions increased (20% more)

Road contribution increased

from 48% to 58%

+

Importance of maritime emissions

Improved BC road emissions in

Marseille region - improved

location (Escompte program 1999-2001)

1kmx1km (thanks to AASQA Airmaraix - LPCA)

Improved BC road emissions for France (10kmx10km)

by improved location (SNAP3) from CETE

(improved vehicle counts for highway, urban, rural driving)

60 Gg/yr

Guillaume and Liousse (2006b), submitted to J. Geophys. Res.

slide13

CHECK OF BC CONCENTRATIONS

AGAINST

MEASUREMENTS

slide14

USE OF A GLOBAL BC MODEL TO TEST NEWEUR AGAINST EXISTING INVENTORIESs

Use is made of TM4-tracer = tracer version of ORISAM-TM4 model (Guillaume et al., Tellus B,2006):

  • - global tracer model (300x200km resolution),
  • - long integrations,
  • - 9 vertical levels (up to 40hPa),
  • dry dep (Ganzeveld, 1997),
  • wet dep: convective rains (Guelle, 1995) / stratiform rains
  • (incloud and below cloud),
  • BC ageing (Cooke et al., 1999).

ORISAM-TM4

GLOBAL

(300x200km,

long integrations)

slide15

MODEL APT TO REPRODUCE TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF BC CONCENTRATIONS

Pic du Midi (avril 2002-août 2003)

EC/OC Campaign (july 2002- july 2003) (see next talk by D. Simpson)

Guillaume et al. (2006b), submitted to Geophys.Res.Lett.

Photo des filtres: août 2002 à dec 2003

slide16

OC MORE PROBLEMATIC :

MODEL ORISAM-TM4 SHOWS THE INTEREST OF MODELLING SOA IN OC

Pic du Midi (April 2002-August 2003)

Guillaume et al. (2006c), submitted to Geophys.Res.Lett.

slide17

RUNNING SEPARATE BC SIMULATIONS

Embedded

separately

Rest of world

= J&L’s inventory

  • 2 different European inventory:
  • Schaap et al. (2004) (EF based on Bond et al.)
  • NEWEUR (with controls)
slide18

EUROPEAN STATIONS TO COMPARE

MODELED / MEASURED CONCENTRATIONS

Lack of data in the zones

where emissions are

really problematic !

Hyytiala

NEatlantic

Aspvreten

South Uist

Kap Arkona

Roervik

Mace Head

Potsdam

Edgbaston

Gent

Radebeul

Halle

Gorlitz

Melpitz

Paris

Gif-sur-yvette

Vienna

K-putsza

Landes Forest

Po valley

Areao

Corsica

Anadia

Barcelona

Aveiro

Ebro

Lisbon

slide19

EUROPEAN STATIONS TO COMPARE

MODELED / MEASURED CONCENTRATIONS

Western Europe: global modelling agrees well

Central Europe: better reproduction with NEWEUR

NEWEUR

Less dispersion with regional model

OBSERVATIONS

Roervik

SCHAAP IN LOTOS

SCHAAP

Hyytiala

NEatlantic

Aspvreten

South Uist

Kap Arkona

Mace Head

Potsdam

Edgbaston

Gent

Radebeul

Halle

Gorlitz

Melpitz

Paris

Gif-sur-yvette

Vienna

K-putsza

Landes Forest

Po valley

Areao

Corsica

Anadia

MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES AT CENTRAL EUROPE SITES, WITH BETTER AGREEMENT USING OUR NEW INVENTORY

Barcelona

Aveiro

Ebro

Lisbon

slide20

CONCLUSIONS

AND

PERSPECTIVES

Combustion chamber (LA, Lannemezan)

  • New measured EF(BC,OCp) soon available
  • (Lannemezan, 2007) for coal species (lignite, coal, coke)
  • and peat + further validation of the CO/CO2 method

Irish peat

German lignite

  • Uncertainties in European BC emissions generated mostly by uncertainties
  • in Central Europe emissions and attributable to coal emissions
  • (domestic and industrial combustions),
  • TM4 simulations show improved comparison with
  • NEWEUR in Central Europe (but lack of data),
  • Regional zooms point to higher regional uncontrolled fractions
  • of road traffic.
  • Need for regionalisation of inventories
  • emphasized by this study
slide22

BC and OC = primary carbon species in mixed aerosols

Radiative forcing (IPCC, 2001)

BC (local heating effect)

OC (local cooling effect)

BC and OC = combustion tracers, products of incomplete combustion

Chemically very complex species

HAP agglomerates,

condensed organic fonctions,

polymerized organic matter)

secondary

OC

(SOA)

Carbon continuum

Condensation continues

in the atmosphere

emissions

OCp

BC

EC