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Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow. C L I M A T E & W A T E R. USGS 75 th /25 th Percentiles of Daily Mean Flow Monthly Exceedance/Non-exceedance Counts Seasonal Counts vs. ENSO Episode Historical Composites (9 for each site) Forecasts Issued Using CPC Nino 3.4 Probabilities

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow

CLIMATE

&

WATER

USGS 75th/25th Percentiles of Daily Mean Flow

Monthly Exceedance/Non-exceedance Counts

Seasonal Counts vs. ENSO Episode

Historical Composites (9 for each site)

Forecasts Issued Using CPC Nino 3.4 Probabilities

Hindcasts 1982-2005 indicated most skill in northern Pearl with less skill at coast where signals dampened by diurnal/tropical events

slide2

Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow

CLIMATE

&

WATER

Historical Probabilities provide likelihood of a particular streamflow category given ENSO episode

slide3

Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow

CLIMATE

&

WATER

Combine Historicals with CPC Nino 3.4 Probabilities to Forecast Streamflow Conditions

slide4

Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow

CLIMATE

&

WATER

INCREASED SKILL

INCREASED SKILL

DECREASEDSKILL

Historical composites must be significant to issue a forecast, otherwise EQUAL CHANCES

slide5

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Climatology

CLIMATE

&

WATER

Collaborative Research with the Southeast Regional Climate Center (Columbia, SC)

Land-falling Storms 1971-2000 from TX/Mexico to MD/DE border

ArcView/GIS to produce gauge analysis and MAPs

Storm Characteristics defined (Speed, Intensity, States Affected, etc.)

slide6

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Climatology

CLIMATE

&

WATER

Characteristics Search

http://lucretia.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/presentations/

TCPRECIPWEB/tcprecip.html

slide7

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Climatology

CLIMATE

&

WATER

For Storm Total Precipitation and Mean Areal Precipitation:

RAW DATA IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD

slide8

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Climatology

CLIMATE

&

WATER

The year you selected is : 1994

Station,St,Lat,Long,Precip, Yr,Begin-Mth,Day,End-Mth,Day,SpeedSE,SpeedIN,Int,Dir,CoopID

ADDISON AL 34.203 -87.181 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 10063 ATHENS AL 34.777 -86.951 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 10390 BESSEMER 3 WSW AL 33.395 -87.008 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 10764 CARBON HILL AL 33.893 -87.527 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 11377 CHATOM AL 31.471 -88.251 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 11566 DEMOPOLIS L & D AL 32.519 -87.879 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 12245 ELROD AL 33.257 -87.797 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 12632 FRISCO CITY 3 SSW AL 31.389 -87.420 0.00 ALBERTO 1994 7 3 7 6 SLSE SLIN -1 NE 13105