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Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling. Fall COPC 2008 AFWA, Omaha, NB 13 November 2008. Dr. Nelson Seaman JAG/OCM Chair. Overview. JAG/OCM membership (review) Status of initiatives 1. COPC AI 2008-1.8: Plan way forward to implement IEMCO for limited-area NWP.

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slide1

Joint Action Group for

Operational Community Modeling

Fall COPC 2008

AFWA, Omaha, NB

13 November 2008

Dr. Nelson Seaman

JAG/OCM Chair

slide2

Overview

  • JAG/OCM membership (review)
  • Status of initiatives
  • 1. COPC AI 2008-1.8: Plan way forward to implement
  • IEMCO for limited-area NWP.
  • 2. COPC AI 2008-1.9: Establish and maintain coordination/
  • collaboration between JAG/OCMand NUOPC.
  • 3. DTC update: Management, resources, activities.
slide3

JAG/OCM Membership

  • NWS – Nelson Seaman (Chair)*
  • FNMOC – Roger Stocker
  • AFWA – Evan Kuchera
  • NAVO – Frank Bub
  • NRL/MRY – Pat Phoebus (temporary)
  • NRL 7300 (Oceanog. Div., Stennis) – Steven Payne

*Term ends Feb. 2009

- Changes in JAG membership since last COPC meeting shown in blue.

slide4

1. COPC AI 2008-1.8:

IEMCO Implementation

- Decision Requested

- Recommendation: Close this A.I.

Open new A.I. for next steps.

slide5

IEMCO Planning: Limited-Area NWP

(Detail from Spring 2008 COPC, JAG/OCM slide 17)

slide6

1a. Align CONUS Windows

  • IEMCO plan: AFWA use NAM over N. America.
  • New policy: AF Dir. of Wx, June 2008:
  • AFWA will…
  • - maintain product generation based on its WRF windows
  • over N. America.
  • - continue receiving NCEP NAM fields as “second-look”
  • model. (begun Dec. ’07)
  • JAG/OCM Recommendation: Close this element of
  • AI 2008-1.8.
slide7

1b. Align OCONUS Guam Windows:

NCEP use FNMOC’s COAMPS

  • FNMOC realigned/expanded its WestPac window
  • to satisfy NCEP requirements for Guam and
  • Marianas Islands. (Apr ’06)
  • NWS has not implemented COAMPS to replace coarser
  • GFS fields.
  • - Other priorities led to delay of conversion tasks.
  • - NCEP re-evaluating cost effectiveness of WestPac
  • COAMPS: Computer resources saved vs.
  • added recoding and comms burden?
  • JAG Recommendation: Await NWS /NCEP guidance.
slide8

1c. Deconflict DoD OCONUS Windows

JAG/OCM strategy:

  • Identify significant commonalities in current DoD OCONUS
  • unclassified windows.
  • Propose near-term realignments of coarse domains
  • to maximize overlaps.
  • Recommendation next steps to COPC.

Goals: - Maximize useful information for OPCs.

- Minimize investment of personnel time until

course of action is approved.

slide11

Proposed common DoD coarse mesoscale domains

for mutual backup and ensemble development

slide12

Benefits from Overlapping Domains:

- Options -

  • Eliminate duplications – One OPC discontinues runs.
  • Pro: -Saves computational resources.
  • Con: -Additional comms.
  • -Investment in conversion codes.
  • -Assessment of impact on products.
  • Provide mutual backup - Both OPCs continue runs.
  • Pro: -No impact on current products.
  • -Further investment of effort is controllable.
  • -Comms demand only on emergency basis.
  • Con: -Some duplication of computational costs.
  • Prepare path for future DoD ensemble.
  • (See next slide)
slide13

Experimental Ensemble Strategy

  • Select one shared window for ensemble development.
  • - Recommend WestPAC domain.
  • Continue running hi-res deterministic forecasts.
  • - Evaluate skill using common metrics.
  • - Exchange model datasets (1st stage “poor-man’s ensemble”).
  • Implement low-res. (30 km?) two-member “control”
  • ensemble generated by FNMOC & AFWA.
  • - Generate and evaluate shared ensemble forecast products.
  • Gradually add new ensemble members as resources allow.
  • - Assess computer, comms, personnel burdens.
  • - Provides multi-model and multi-physics options.
  • - Possibility for new members with perturbed ICs/BCs.
slide14

Proposed* Milestones and Timetable

  • Realign three overlapping OCONUS domains. (FY09)
  • - Runs continue at both FNMOC and AFWA.
  • - Provides zero-order mutual backup capability.
  • Evaluate need for advanced mutual backup capability.
  • - Further development TBD. (FY09)
  • Develop 30-km “controls” as IOC ensemble. (FY10)
  • Develop, test, and evaluate experimental products from
  • two-member IOC “control” ensemble. (FY11-FY12)
  • Add additional ensemble members as skill warrants and
  • as resources allow. (FY13-FY15)

* Proposal is for discussion purposes only.

slide15

2. COPC AI 2008-1.9: Establish and maintain

coordination/collaboration between

JAG/OCMand NUOPC

- Decision Requested

- Recommendation: Close the A.I.

slide16

Coordination of JAG/OCMand NUOPC

  • NUOPC manager (Fred Toepfer) and JAG/OCM chair
  • are consulting once per month to exchange information
  • and discuss opportunities.
  • Status: NUOPC focusing initially on global modeling,
  • whereas JAG is currently focused on limited-area
  • windows. No active coordination at present.
slide17

3. DTC Update

Information only

slide18

Status of DTC Management/Resource Plan

  • Management Plan: DTC Charter
  • - Charter approved by all parties, except for NWS, June 2008.
  • - NOAA legal counsel did not approve Charter, June 2008.
  • - Charter revisions address counsel concerns, July 2008.
  • - Revised version still awaiting review by NOAA counsel.
  • Resourcing: NOAA-NCAR Cooperative Agreement
  • - Signed June 2008.
  • New initiatives: DTC is…
  • - Planning support of ESMF-based community models.
  • (see slide 19).
  • - Participating in Hurricane Forecast Intensity Project (HFIP).
slide19

Support of ESMF-Based Models

to the NWP Research Community

  • Establish and maintain parallel WRF and ESMF code
  • repositories. (FY09-FY10)
  • Anticipate WRF DTC support of ESMF framework and
  • community NWP models run operationally under ESMF.
  • - ESMF-NMM in FY09.
  • - ESMF-ARW in FY11-FY12.
  • Expect user support to lag ~1-2 years behind operational
  • updates.
  • Anticipate DTC support of ESMF-based global mesoscale
  • models to research community. (FY12 and beyond)
slide20

DTC Role in HFIP

  • DTC will…
    • Conduct evaluations of developmental models for future
    • operational hurricane predictions.
    • - Hi-res. limited-area models (~ 1 km)
    • - Current operational limited-area models (~10 km)
    • - Mesoscale global models (~10 km)?
    • Organize and run HFIP workshops.
slide21

Summary of Decision Requests

Decision 1: AI 2008-1.8 Recommend closure of AI 2008-1.8,

open new AI (see below):

– No further JAG action on NCEP N. American domain.

– NWS: First, decide priority and assign implementation responsibility

for Guam/Marianas products based on FNMOC WestPac

COAMPS. (No JAG action.)

– JAG: Prepare implementation plan for delivery of WestPAC COAMPS

as per NWS requirements.

– JAG: Plan alignment of 3 OCONUS windows (~15-18 km) providing

limited backup capability.

– COPC: Decide whether to pursue enhanced backup capability.

– AFWA and FNMOC: Create “joint design team” for experimental

WestPac ensemble. (Issues: Resolution, member

selection, computing, products, comms, FTE estimate,

T&E requirements, milestones, timetable)

 Relationship between JAGs and design team TBD. (CSAB?)

Decision 2: AI 2008-1.9 Recommend closure.

slide24

IEMCO Implementation Roadmap (spring ’08)

  • Complete IEMCO Planning Table (Spring 2008 JAG report to COPC,
  • slides 17-18.
  • Identify “first-guess” deliverables for each model.
  • Estimate dataset volumes and schedules for first-guess deliverables.
  • Work with JAG/CCM to define communications load requirements for
  • model datasets.
  • Draft a modeling annex to the DAPE MOA.
  • Draft model implementation plans for highest-priority model implementations.
  • - Consistent with modeling annex to DAPE MOA.
  • - Similar in scope & content to WRF Joint Implementation Plan.
  • Refine and complete modeling annex to DAPE MOA.
  • Refine and complete each model implementation plan.