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Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts: Evaluating Ensemble Cone of Uncertainty

This study aims to improve the forecasting of tropical cyclones by developing an ensemble-based cone of uncertainty. Specifically, we will evaluate the skill of the ensemble mean, the accuracy of the probability cone, and the width of the resulting ensemble-based cone. By leveraging ensemble forecasting techniques, we seek to provide a more reliable and precise outlook for predicting cyclone trajectories, ultimately aiding in disaster preparedness and response efforts.

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Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts: Evaluating Ensemble Cone of Uncertainty

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  1. Evaluating Ensemble Track Forecasts For Tropical Cyclones (P15) Peter Finocchio, Sharanya J. Majumdar Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science – University of Miami GOAL: To develop an ensemble-based cone of uncertainty IKE • Skill of ensemble mean • Accuracy of probability cone • Width of resulting ensemble-based cone

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