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Western Water Supply Forecast Evolution and Ensemble Services

Explore the history, project overview, and future enhancements of Western Water Supply forecasts. Access comprehensive ensemble services, verification tools, and climate variability information for water supply management.

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Western Water Supply Forecast Evolution and Ensemble Services

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  1. Western Water Supply Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon

  2. Outline • Western Water Supply • History • Project overview • Westwide map • Forecast evolution • Verification • Ensemble services • Future enhancements • Climate variability and change • Short range ensembles services

  3. Western Water Supply Forecasts • Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US • Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR) • NWS forecast program began in 1940s • Primary forecast tools: • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Multivariate Linear Regression Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)

  4. Project in a Nutshellwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater • Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs • Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow • Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools • Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow predication • Data Access: Access data from database

  5. Milestones • Milestones (past): • April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held • January 2006: Initial website launched • September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development • January 2007: Common database developed • March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs • September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm • Milestones (future): • December 2007: • Launch verification 1.0 capabilities • Launch forecast evolution 2.0 • Launch ensemble services 1.0 • January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data • 2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities

  6. Map www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater • “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts • Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA • Zoomable to basin scale • Mouse over capability for forecast values

  7. Forecast Evolution • Time evolution of forecast and observed streamflow • Plot options include: • Observed monthly or seasonal streamflow • Historical monthly or seasonal streamflow • Forecast seasonal streamflow • Accumulation options

  8. Forecast Evolution Version 2.0 coming December 2007 Additions include: -ESP seasonal forecasts for easy comparison to official forecasts -Multi-year plots

  9. Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007 RFC Ensemble Forecasts -Initially offered at NWS water supply points -Display probability function for monthly volumes -Tools included to query historical data and forecast ensemble members -User customizable plots

  10. Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007 Median Historical Runoff & 1983 ensemble member November – May Seasonal Runoff

  11. Forecast VerificationDecember 2007 • Easy to understand • Meaningful • Accessible from forecasts • Dynamically generated plots from database Plot credit: Chad Kahler

  12. Data AccessDecember 2007 • Access to forecast and observed data from database

  13. Future Directions Climate Change Hydrologic Scenarios Climate Variability and Hydrologic Response Relationships Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios

  14. Climate Change:Fresh Water Projections Figure TS.5 (IPCC AR4, WG2). Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions.

  15. Extend NWS Product Suite? Years • Current product suite covers hours to seasons; • Should we consider climate change scenarios and build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation? • User requirements from power companies, BoR, etc for climate change scenarios Climate Change run off scenarios?

  16. Climate Change Scenarios • Example: Lake Granby inflows on the Colorado River • Two temperature scenarios: • Historical Temperatures • +0.2 deg F increase per year based on historical temperatures

  17. Climate Change Scenarios (Con’t) • Corresponding simulations of Lake Granby inflows: • Warmed simulation has earlier runoffs late in the simulation

  18. Climate Change Scenarios (con’t) Hungry Horse Dam inflows on Flathead River Simulations with 1% less precipitation per year

  19. Climate Change Scenarios (con’t) • Ultimately include climate change scenarios in the ensemble services application for easy comparison with other datasets.

  20. Summary • www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater • New stuff coming in December • We like feedback: kevin.werner@noaa.gov

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