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Key Topics. IntroductionThe early media: efforts to influence and measure public opinionPolitical socialization and the factors that influence opinion formation. Introduction: War as
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1. OConnor & Sabato, Chapter 10: Public Opinion & News Media Presentation 10.1: The Early
Media & Political Socialization
2. Key Topics Introduction
The early media: efforts to influence and measure public opinion
Political socialization and the factors that influence opinion formation
3. Introduction: War as Reality TV Gulf War IIs impact on the news cycle
A 20% spike in viewership
The role of the media in covering warfare: chroniclers or propagandists?
4. 1i. Introduction cont.: The Embeds The role of embedded journalists in covering the war
Were the embedded reporters able to see the big picture
5. 1ii. Introduction cont.The Role of the Media in a Democracy Widespread confusion and cynicism among the public regarding the media
The jaded public theory: Americans are subjected to so many polls that the accuracy of polls must be questioned
Is the media seeking merely to identify public opinion, or shape it?
6. 1iii. What is Public Opinion? What the public thinks about a particular issue at a particular point in time
The snapshot quality of any particular public opinion survey
Public opinion as a reification*:
There is no single Public Opinion on controversial issues (e.g. abortion or gun control).
7. 2. The Early Media The link between democracy and public opinion
The term public opinion came into vogue in the early 19th century
Politicians need to reliably gauge public sentiment
8. 2i. Public Opinion & World War I President Wilson and the creation of the Committee on Public Information (CPI)
Begin in 1914 to shift public opinion in support of US entrance on the side of the Allies
CPIs efforts as the first American public relations campaign
9. 2ii. The Genesis of Public Opinion Polling Systematic polling was not created until the 1930s
The alliance of social science and statistics
Began as a business tool, but innovative data gathering and interpreting techniques led to wider applications
10. 2a. Early Election Forecasting Attempts by newspaper to forecast the outcomes of elections
1824 PN newspaper attempted to predict the winner of the presidential election
1833 Boston Globe conducted one of the first exit surveys to predict the results of key elections
The Literary Digests use of comprehensive surveys to predict presidential election outcomes between 1920-1932
11. 2ai. The Literary Digest Along with Vanity Fair, was one of the more influential political and cultural magazines of the early 20th century
Famous for its election predictions
12. 2aii. Straw Polls Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on issues and election outcomes
The Literary Digests polls were viewed state-of-the-art
However, it incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would defeat FDR by 57-43% of the popular vote (FDR won by a 62-38%)
13. 2b. What Went Wrong? The Digests poll included potential respondents without establishing a representative sample
Three fatal errors
1st: Drawn from telephone directories & automobile owners lists (over sampling the wealthy)
2nd: Timing: questionnaires mailed in early September
3rd: Self selection: only highly motivated individuals sent back cards (only 22% of those surveyed responded)
14. 2bi. One Pollster who got the 1936 Election Right Social scientist who wrote his doctoral dissertation on measurement of newspaper readership
Emphasized random sampling
15. 2bii. 1948: Another Black Eye for the Pollsters Everyone including Gallup predicted that GOP Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman
Truman won by appealing to new constituencies
16. 2biii. How Accurate are Polls? The problem with the 2000 elections: too close to call
Surveys can predict outcomes with a significant margin of victory; otherwise, they are no better than straw polls in close elections
Politics Now section on p. 331: what was wrong with Gallups poll of Muslims?
17. 3. Political Socialization Many political attitudes come from values systems
Political socialization: The process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations
The learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and values
18. 3a. Major Factors Affecting Opinion Formation Earliest memories of politics can have a lifelong impact
The importance of parental guidance into the world of politics
If parents discuss political issues in the presence of their children, the child is more likely to develop political attitudes
19. 3b. The Family The importance of communication and receptivity
Children raised in partisan households are more likely to become partisans themselves
20. 3c. School and Peers The role of schools in teaching respect & patriotism
The role of the schools in cultivating civic virtues
The relationship between education and voting
21. 3ci. Schools cont. In higher education, students learn important critical skills
College and the liberalizing effect
Uneven evidence that more education makes you liberal
More young people tend to self-identify as liberal than conservative (28-21%)
22. 3d. Religion The importance of religion for many Americans
The rising number of secular Americans
The secular/spiritual divide in American politics
23. 3di. The Religious Divide 2000 Data
24. 3dii. The Impact of Religion Religious perspectives affect peoples political views and affiliations
Catholics and Jews were historically marginalized groups who have supported the Democratic Party
The shift of Baptists from the Democratic to Republican Party
25. 3e. Gender Women hold distinctive political views
More likely to hold negative views of military intervention & positive views on social welfare & education
26. 3ei. The Gender Gap Women are also on average more likely to support environmental protection and oppose capital punishment
Are many womens more liberal orientations explained by a maternal nature
Research does not indicate such a link
27. 3eii. Gender Differences on Political IssuesData from a recent Gallop-Washington Post Survey
28. 3f. Race and Ethnicity The importance of cultural differences between whites and racial and ethnic groups
The problem of alienation among African-Americans
29. 3fi. Race cont. Racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to view government with suspicion and support affirmative action programs
Hispanics as a whole are more likely to self-identify as liberal
Cuban-Americans are more likely to be conservative
30. 3g. Age The social and political consequences of the graying of America
The effect of age on people view of the proper role of government
31. 3h. Region The role of immigration in creating distinctive regional politics
Scandinavians in Minnesota, Irish, Italians, and Jews in NE cities
The politics of the South
More religious
More likely to support a strong national defense
Southerners accounted for 41% of the troops in the Persian Gulf war (comprise 28% of the general population)
32. 3i. The Impact of Events Events can have a lasting impact on peoples political attitudes
The Great Depression, WWII, the Vietnam Conflict, JFKs assassination, Watergate, OK City Bombing, 9/11 etc.
Events can spark greater commitment from the public or widen mistrust and cynicism
33. 3j. The Mass Media A persons media habits can affect their perspective
Media can enlighten voters or encourage turnout
The growing number of Americans who get their information online (22% of Internet users researched candidates through the Internet)
34. 3k. Political Ideology and Public Opinion About Government Americans attachment to strong ideological positions has varied over time
Most Americans believe that they hold a coherent ideology
However, 37% of Americans identify themselves as middle of the road or moderate