Reducing vulnerability to climate change in agricultural systems
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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems . Moldova Country Program. Gretel Gambarelli World Bank Chisinau, 28 October 2009. What do we have to prepare for?. Unavoidable warming. Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007. What is Adaptation?.

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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems

Moldova Country Program

Gretel Gambarelli

World Bank

Chisinau, 28 October 2009


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What do we have to prepare for? Systems

Unavoidable warming

Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007.


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What is Adaptation? Systems

Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.


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Why acting now is important? (1/2) Systems

Because:

Many of the measures that will help deal with future climate (“adaptation to climate change”) can also help resolve today’s problems.

  • Example:

  • As a consequence of climate change, droughts may become more frequent and severe. Investing in drought-tolerant crops can help reduce future losses due to climate change, but also today’s damages when the climate is drier than normal.

Sunflowers in Moldova, summer 2007


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Why acting now is important? (2/2) Systems

Because:

The more you are prepared, the lesser the damage caused by future climate will be.

  • Example:

  • Under current climate agro-meteorological services in Moldova potentially yield economic benefits of EUR 3.6 million per year (VTT, Finland).

  • Under climate change, agro-meteorological services can further reduce agricultural losses and increase economic benefits


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Which questions to ask about adaptation? Systems

Improve adaptation to current climate

What are the current climate-related risks in agriculture?

What coping strategies are being used today? Are they enough?

NO

What are future climate risks given vulnerability of agriculture to climate change?

YES

No more action needed

Are current coping measures sufficient to deal with future problems?

YES

What are the non-climate related drivers of future risk and vulnerability?

NO

Identify adaptation to future climate


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What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (1/2) Systems

Work with Moldovan people, experts, and officials to better understand:

What problems may arise in agriculture from future changes in climate

What can be done now to avoid or reduce likely future damages to agricultural production and the economy and take advantage of any opportunities (ADAPTATION)


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What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (2/2) Systems

Stimulate

Better understand

Identify and analyze

Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.


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More specifically this program will help you… Systems

  • Analyze the potential impacts on the agricultural sector from climate change at the agro-ecological zone scale.

  • Assess the country’s existing adaptive capacity.

  • Identify the most vulnerable regions and production systems.

  • Explore possibleadaptation options that can decrease vulnerability – and in some cases exploit new opportunities.

  • Analyze and prioritize adaptation options using a combination of economic and participatory approaches.

  • Assess potential barriers to adaptation (i.e., policy, economic, institutional, and technological, factors).

  • Assess capacity gaps and needs of local and national institutions and agricultural producers to implement adaptation options.

  • Develop a menu of Climate Change Adaptation Options for Agriculture that identifies priorities for investments, capacity development and policy improvement.


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What should the menu of adaptation options look like? Systems

Adaptation options should:

  • Be practical and operational

  • Be cost-effective

  • Improve resilience to climate change and increase productivity ( “win-win”)

  • Where possible also help reduce GHG emissions (“win-win-win”)

  • Be “robust” to a range of climate futures

    • IMPORTANT: we cannot preciselypredict how climate change will hit Moldova, but we can identify adaptation measures that will be beneficial in a number of future climate scenarios



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Develop Draft Systems

Country Note

Final Country

Note

Consultation and

Awareness

Raising Workshop

Find out what else you know about climate change in Moldova and possible ways to adapt

Agree on information gaps and needs for additional analysis

Results from

Impact

Assessment

Choose modeling

approach based on

information

needs and data

Develop a Draft menu of adaptation options

(short-, medium-, and long-term)

National

Dissemination and

Consensus Building

Conference

Final Menu of Adaptation Options for Moldova

Regional

Knowledge

Exchange workshop

Improve the preparedness

of Moldova to reduce

the vulnerability of agricultural

systems to climate change


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Today’s objectives Systems

Discuss the following questions:


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This program will help you better Systems understand and discuss future climate risks and what you can do to adapt.

We need your full participation to ensure that the program makes the best use of and builds on local knowledge.

You will then have to decide whether, when and how to implement adaptation measures, and how you might like us and other development partners to help.


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