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Studies on the Future of Manufacturing James A. Jordan, Jr., Ph.D. NGM Knowledge Systems Informan 2000 Cambridge, UK March 12-14, 2000 Three Recent Visioning Efforts Next Generation Manufacturing (NGM) Project - U.S. National Industry Team

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slide1

Studies on the Future

of Manufacturing

James A. Jordan, Jr., Ph.D.

NGM Knowledge Systems

Informan 2000

Cambridge, UK

March 12-14, 2000

three recent visioning efforts
Three Recent Visioning Efforts
  • Next Generation Manufacturing (NGM) Project - U.S.National Industry Team
  • Visionary Manufacturing Challenges (VMC) Study - Small Specialist Team convened by U.S. Nat’l Research Council
  • Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) Technical Themes - International Team
slide3

NGM

VMC

IMS

Who

US Gov’t & Industry

US NRC (Gov’t $)

Int’l Gov & Industry

When

1995-97

1997-98

1989-93

Reassessment in

1Q 2000

Next 10-15 years

2020 and beyond

Next 10-15 years

Horizon

Purpose

Build up responsive,

competitive U.S. com-

mercial and defense

manufacturing

industry

Guide U.S. gov’t

investment in long-

range manufacturing

R&D

Develop technical

agenda for internat-

ional cooperative

manufacturing R&D

projects

Approach

Extrapolation

Targeting

Method

Business environment

visioning, then roll-up

of results of Task

Teams by Integration

Team

International Delphi

Study

Environment  Enterprise  Challenges  Technologies

Small specialist team

Roll-up by Int’l Tech.

Committee of results

from national study

groups

Results

Grand Challenges for

Manufacturing

Recommendations for

R&D program structure

and technology targets

Technical Themes

for IMS program

Criteria for IMS

project selection

NGM Framework for

Action

Recommendations for

practitioners, policy,

& R&D

slide4

The NGM Framework for Action

People

Knowledge

Processes

NGM Equipment

and Processes

Workforce

Flexibility

Change

Management

Knowledge

Supply

Equipment and

NGM Processes

Adaptive, Responsive

Information Systems

Innovation

Pervasive Modeling

and Simulation

Rapid Product and Process Realization

Integration

Extended Enterprise Collaboration

Enterprise Integration

ngm action recommendations
NGM Action Recommendations
  • Establish an NGM Extended Enterprise Demonstration Site, deploying a seamless, integrated, interoperable manufacturing environment and serving as a national clearinghouse.
  • Develop NGM models and assessment capabilities
  • Develop and apply NGM technology roadmaps
  • Develop systematic processes for knowledge capture and knowledge-based manufacturing
  • Establish and implement methodologies to infuse NGM concepts through all levels of corporations and enterprises.
  • Advance the understanding of innovation and change management.
  • Establish a government partnership with industry and academia for a supportive manufacturing infrastructure.
  • Enable and promote pervasive use of modeling and simulation.
  • Develop intelligent processes and flexible manufacturing systems.
vmc challenges technologies
Grand Challenges

Concurrent Manufacturing

Integration of Human & Technical Resources

Conversion of Information to Knowledge

Environmental Compatibility

Reconfigurable Enterprises

Innovative Processes

Priority Technologies

Reconfigurable Manufacturing Systems

Waste-free Processing

New Materials

Biotechnology

Enterprise M & S

Information Technologies

Design Methodologies

Workforce Education and Training

Software for Intelligent Collaboration Systems

VMC Challenges & Technologies
vmc recommendations
VMC Recommendations
  • Establish and encourage interdisciplinary R&D programs focused on Grand Challenges
  • Focus long-term, interdisciplinary R&D in priority technology areas
  • Emphasize “crosscutting” technologies
  • Focus basic research on breakthrough technologies
    • submicron manufacturing processes
    • enterprise modeling and simulation
ims themes 1
IMS Themes - 1
  • Total product life cycle
    • Future general models of manufacturing systems
    • Intelligent communication network systems for information processes in manufacturing
    • Environmental protection
    • Minimum use of energy and materials
    • Recycling and refurbishment
    • Economic justification methods
  • Human / Organisation / Social
    • Promotion and development projects for an improved image of manufacturing
    • Better manufacturing workforce/education and training
    • More effective operation of autonomous offshore plants
    • Improved corporate technical memory
    • Development of appropriate performance measures for new manufacturing paradigms
ims themes 2
IMS Themes - 2
  • Process
    • Clean manufacturing processes
    • Energy efficient processes
    • Technology innovation in manufacturing processes
    • More flexibility and autonomy in processing modules
    • Better interaction or harmony among various components and functions of manufacturing
  • Virtual / Extended Enterprise
    • Information processes and logistics across the value chain
    • Business, functional, and technical architectures in support of engineering co-operation
    • Concurrent engineering across the extended enterprise
    • Assigning cost liability/risk and reward to the elements of the extended enterprise
  • Strategy/ planning/ design tools
    • Methods and tools to support process re-engineering
    • Modeling tools for the analysis and development of manufacturing strategies
drivers of trends
Drivers of Trends
  • Customer Demands
  • Globalization
  • Ubiquity of Information
changes in structure operation
Changes in Structure & Operation
  • Intelligent Manufacturing
    • Workers valued for Intellectual Contribution
  • Agile Virtual Enterprise
    • Distributed Manufacturing Enterprises
    • Business-to-Business e-Commerce
  • Teaming
    • Autonomous Decision-making
approaches
Approaches
  • Industry Leadership
    • The people with real problems
  • Multidisciplinary
    • Real industry problems usually are not confined within narrow academic or functional disciplines
  • Defined Objectives
    • Foresight with respect to ???
ngm project

NGM Project

More Details

the ngm project
The NGM Project
  • Target: the Manufacturing Industry in the United States
  • Goals:
    • Develop a model of manufacturing enterprises in the first decade of the 21st Century
    • Recommend actions for manufacturers to undertake, by themselves or in partnership with other companies, government, and the academic community.
ngm project oversight
NGM Project Oversight
  • Federal Funding Organizations
    • Nat’l Science FoundationDept. of Defense
    • Department of Energy NIST
  • Principal Investigators
    • Agility Forum MIT Leaders for Manufacturing
    • DoE Technologies Enabling Agile Mfg (TEAM) Project
  • Industry Associations - Project Steering Committee
    • NAM NCAT NCMS NACFAM SME APICS
    • CAM-I CIMS EIA Modernization Forum
  • Executive Advisory Group
    • 54 CEO’s and Senior Manufacturing Executives
representative companies
Representative Companies
  • Executive Advisory Group
    • Adept Tech. Avid Tech Bay Networks Chrysler
    • CP Claire DEC EDS EMC Equipto FANUC FEI GE Aircraft Engines
    • GM Gensym Hughes Lockheed Martin
    • Merck Perceptron Polaroid Prince
    • Rockwell Int’l Sheldahl Siemans Solar Turb.
    • Stanley Works Teradyne Textron TI
    • SK Williams United Tech. Westinghouse Wheelabrator
  • NGM Thrust Area Teams - Six Industry-led Teams
    • Alcoa Allied-Signal Andersen Consult. Boeing
    • Chrysler DEC Eastman Kodak Ford
    • GE GM Intel Johnson Controls
    • A.D. Little Lockheed Martin Motorola Northrop Grumman
    • Pratt & Whitney Rhone-Polenc Rockwell Int’l Sandia
    • Siemans SK Williams Taco Bell TI
    • LM Vought Westinghouse
  • Contributing Univesities
    • ASU Boston Univ. Brooklyn Poly. Cornell Harvard Lehigh MIT RIT UTA/ARRI
ngm project teams
NGM Project Teams
  • NGM Project Integration Team
    • PI’s + Thrust Area Team Leaders
  • NGM Thrust Area Teams
    • Six Industry-led Teams
    • 8-15 Experts Nominated by the Industry Associations and PI’s
  • NGM Roadmapping Task Force
    • 10 Experts led by DoE/TEAM
  • Industry Review Team
    • About 300 Practitioners and Experts
global drivers 2

Demanding Customers

Ubiquitous Internet

Technology Access

Wage/Skill Globalization

Environment

Global Drivers2

Changing Technology

??

Global Competition

2Next Generation Manufacturing: Framework for Action, 1997

today s dilemmas 2
Today’s Dilemmas2

1. Simultaneously satisfying all the stakeholders

2. Sustaining and profiting from long-term relationships

3. Recoveringplant and equipment costs as product and process lifetimes get shorter

2Next Generation Manufacturing: Framework for Action, 1997

slide20

NGM Visioning

Global

Drivers

  • Inputs
  • Industry
  • Roadmaps
  • Research
  • Lean Mfg
  • Agile Mfg
  • Manufacturing
  • Executives

NGM

Enterprise

Attributes

Today’s

Dilemmas

the ngm attributes
The NGM Attributes

Customer Responsiveness

Plant/Equipment Responsiveness

Human Resource Responsiveness

Global Market Responsiveness

Responsive Practices and Cultures

Teaming as a Core Competency

slide22

NGM Framework for Action

NGM

Framework

for Action

---

Operational

Strategies

---

Implementation

Sub-strategies

---

Action Plans

  • Inputs
  • Industry
  • Roadmaps
  • Resource
  • Availability
  • Research
  • Lean Mfg
  • Agile Mfg
  • Mfg Execs

NGM

Enterprise

Attributes

slide23

The NGM Framework for Action

People

Knowledge

Processes

NGM Equipment

and Processes

Workforce

Flexibility

Knowledge

Supply

Change

Management

Equipment and

NGM Processes

Adaptive, Responsive

Information Systems

Innovation

Pervasive Modeling

and Simulation

Rapid Product and Process Realization

Integration

Extended Enterprise Collaboration

Enterprise Integration

rapid product and process realization
Rapid Product and Process Realization

Systematic Integrated Product and Process Development

RPPR

Enterprise-wide

Computing

Environments

  • Integrated
  • Responsive
  • Adaptable

People in Teams Working on

Globally Distributed Processes

changing relationships that support rppr
Changing Relationships that Support RPPR

NGM

Enterprise

Old

Company

New

Company

Vertical

Integration

Networks

of

Peers

(Work Units)

Vertical Integration

Vertical

Integration

Managed

Supply

Chain

Supplier

Pool

Yesterday

Today

Tomorrow

slide27

Interoperable

Business and

Manufacturing

Systems

Knowledge

of Core

Competencies

Ethics

and

Trust

Legal and Financial

Facilitators

slide28

EnterpriseIntegration Technologies

  • Fully implemented, seamless electronic networks that can support global manufacturing systems
  • User interfaces and tools that enable seamless knowledge access and exchange
slide29

Enterprise Systems

Logistics

Systems

Product/

Process

Design

Workstations

Factory

Systems

Other Locations,

More Factories

and Controllers

(The Extended

Factory)

Repositories

Cell

Controllers

Vendors’

Workstations

MES

Controllers

More

Partners

& Suppliers

Other

Cells

Controller

Cell

Partner’s

Design

Workstations

slide30

Integration of People and Systems

  • Organizational structures that are flexible and responsive
  • Tools to mitigate the effects of physical and cultural complexity
  • Metrics and tools for advanced operational strategies
team based empowerment
Team-Based Empowerment

From To

Directive Management

Individual Metrics,

Incentives, Rewards

Narrow Discipline-oriented Expertise

Ad Hoc Teaming

Real Collocation

Cultural Homogeneity

Servant Leadership

Team Metrics, Incentives, Rewards

Multidisciplinary

Systems Expertise

Professional Teaming

Virtual Collocation

Cultural Diversity

slide32

Balanced Corporate Strategic Goals

Financial

Perspective

Customer

Perspective

Global

Perspective

Learning

Perspective

Internal

Perspective

Innovation

Perspective

From Jordan and Michel,

SME Technical Report, 1998

From Kaplan and Norton, The Balanced Scorecard,

HBS Press, 1996

slide34
Knowledge Supply

Univ.

Labs

R&D

Labs

Knowledge

Vendors

Knowledge

Repository

Knowledge

Delivery

Knowledge

Supply

Chain

Just-in-Time

Knowledge

Concurrent

Education

Univ.&

Colleges

Tech

Trans

Industry

Educ.

K-12

c adopt ngm processes equipment and technology
C. Adopt NGM Processes, Equipment, and Technology
  • Implement flexible, agile processes and equipment.
  • Use Modeling and Simulation for planning and real-time control.
  • Build Information Systems that can respond to needs for integrated operations and can adapt to change
prototyping in the virtual factory
Prototyping in the Virtual Factory

The Virtual Factory

Material Properties

Unit,

Factory,

and

Enterprise

Models

and

Simulations

Product

Prototypes

Solid Models

Human Factors

Process

Prototypes

Process Plans

Product and Process Data Model

d use human resources intelligently
D. Use Human Resources Intelligently
  • Build and retain a flexible supply of human resources with the capabilities to contribute to NGM company responsiveness.
references
References
  • NGM Project, Next Generation Manufacturing: Framework for Action (Agility Forum, Bethlehem, PA, 1997).

The report is available for download fromhttp://www.dp.doe.gov/ngm/default/htm.

  • Jordan and Michel, Next Generation Manufacturing Methods and Techniques (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., NY, March 2000).