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Seasonal Climate Forecast March – May 2014 (Issued: February 20, 2014). This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in Cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons at 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

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seasonal climate forecast march may 2014 issued february 20 2014

Seasonal Climate ForecastMarch – May 2014(Issued: February 20, 2014)

This Product is Published by the Oregon

Department of Agriculture (ODA), in Cooperation

with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).

Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons

at 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

Get related Seasonal Climate Forecast information at http://cms.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/Pages/weather.aspx

forecast method notes
Forecast Method Notes…
  • The analog years were obtained by tracking and comparing a variety of indices over the past several years (see Forecasting Methods).
  • Years in the “Cool Phase” of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were given highest priority.
  • The 1961 analog year was dropped this month in favor of 1963. 1962 and 1968 remain the other top years.
  • All three years were “weighted” equally to create the forecast graphics, but 1963 and 1968 appear to match up best with current conditions.
el ni o southern oscillation enso current status and forecast
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Current Status and Forecast
  • ENSO-neutral (average) conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across sections of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (into La Niña territory).
  • The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and most computer models predict ENSO-neutral persisting through spring 2014; with possible El Niño conditions developing this summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

tropical pacific ocean animated in powerpoint only ssts top anomalies bottom
Tropical Pacific OceanAnimated (in PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

tropical pacific ocean temperatures have cooled to below average central and east
Tropical Pacific OceanTemperatures have cooled to below average central and east

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif

enso indices
ENSO Indices

(1961-62;1962-63; 1967-68)

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

enso indices7
ENSO Indices

(1961-62;1962-63; 1967-68)

El Niño conditions developed, during the

subsequent autumn, in 2 of the top 3 analog years.

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña conditions developed,

during the winter, in 1 of the top 3 analog years.

La Niña

enso predictive models computer models predict enso neutral through spring 2014
ENSO Predictive ModelsComputer models predict ENSO-neutral through spring 2014

El Niño

Model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral conditions through spring 2014; followed by

possible El Niño development.

ENSO-neutral

La Niña

Courtesy: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

march 2014 forecast
March 2014 Forecast

Temperatures

Precipitation

  • Analog years had a wide range in both temperatures and precipitation, which significantly lowers forecast confidence.
  • Mountain snowpacks likely peaking well below average.
april 2014 forecast
April 2014 Forecast

Temperatures

Precipitation

  • Temperatures likely near or below normal.
  • Elevated chances for late-season freezing temperatures in the west.
  • Cool temperatures and continued mountain snow may locally extend the peak of, below normal, mountain snowpacks well into April.
may 2014 forecast
May 2014 Forecast

Temperatures

Precipitation

  • Top analog years all had below average temperatures, especially early, which would delay mountain snow-melt and maintain soil moisture.
  • However, near to slightly above normal precipitation will not likely make up for pre-existing drought conditions and snowpack deficits.
march may 2014 forecast
March – May 2014 Forecast

Temperatures

Precipitation

  • Cooler than average temperatures are likely, which would delay the peak and melt-off of, significantly below average, mountain snowpacks.
  • Precipitation most likely near average; ranging from slightly above average in the NW to slightly below average in the SW and east.
resources
Resources
  • CPC Official US Three-Month Forecasts (Graphics):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01

  • CPC US 30-Day & 90-Day Forecasts (Discussions):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

  • CPC Weekly & Monthly ENSO Discussions: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
  • Australian Government Weekly Tropical Climate Note:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

  • Australian Government ENSO Wrap-Up:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso

  • IRI ENSO Quick Look:

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2

  • NRCS Western Snowpack Data & Water Supply Forecast:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl

updated monthly around the 20 th

Updated Monthly(around the 20th)

Your Feedback is Welcome

Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist

503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

ODA Production support from Diana Walker and Andy Zimmerman