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Winter Weather and Aviation. Mike Bardou Meteorologist National Weather Service Romeoville, IL Jonathan Leffler Meteorologist Center Weather Service Unit Aurora, IL. Summary. NWS Background Weather Basics Hazards Planning. Weather Forecast Offices (WFO).

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winter weather and aviation

Winter Weather and Aviation

Mike Bardou

Meteorologist

National Weather Service Romeoville, IL

Jonathan Leffler

Meteorologist

Center Weather Service Unit Aurora, IL

summary
Summary

NWS Background

Weather Basics

Hazards

Planning

national weather service wfo romeoville il
National Weather Service WFORomeoville, IL
  • Located about 30 miles southwest of Downtown Chicago
  • 27 full-time staff members
  • At least 2-3 per shift
wfo aviation weather services
WFO Aviation Weather Services
  • TAFs (every 2 hrs on weekdays/3 hrs on weekends)

- KORD

- KMDW

- KRFD

- KDPA

- KGYY

  • Aviation Forecast Discussion
  • Soaring Forecasts
center weather service unit aurora il
Center Weather Service UnitAurora, IL

Located within the City of Aurora, IL about 40 miles west of Downtown Chicago

Staffed by 4 NWS meteorologists from 5:00 am – 9:00 pm, 7 days a week.

cwsu aviation weather services
CWSU Aviation Weather Services
  • Provide Professional Meteorological Services to FAA Air Traffic System

Accomplished with:

    • Liaison to NWS Forecast Offices
    • In-person and telephone briefings to local FAA facilities
    • Center Weather Advisories (short-fuse “warnings”)
    • Collaborative Convective Forecast Products (CCFP)
    • Web-based products/decision aids
weather phenomena
Weather Phenomena
  • High Pressure
  • Low Pressure
  • Cold Front
  • Warm Front
  • Occluded Front
high pressure
High Pressure
  • Overall sinking motion, stable conditions
  • Calm or near calm surface winds, except at far perimeter of high
  • Can have Cu growth, but normally little vertical extent to clouds
  • Favorable for fog development, esp. if ground is wet and skies are clear overnight
  • Snow covered ground can keep persistent IFR as airmass changes very little
low pressure
Low Pressure
  • Overall rising motion, unstable conditions
  • Moderate to very strong surface winds in cyclonic (counter-clockwise) motion
  • Great vertical extend of clouds (TSRA, SHRA)
  • Fog development typically not favorable due to stronger winds & mixing of drier air
  • Can help “scrub” atmosphere from stagnant high pressure
warm front
Warm Front
  • Shallow sloping surface = less vertical extent
  • Winds usually SE shifting to SW after passage
  • Thickening & lowering of clouds ahead of front with widespread, layered precipitation
  • Warm and stable once warm front passes
cold front
Cold Front
  • Steep sloping surface = greater vertical extent
  • Winds usually SW shifting NW after passage
  • Lines of TSRA/SHRA ahead/along front with residual -RA/DZ in some cases
  • Skies clearing and becoming stable
occluded front
Occluded Front
  • Acts similar to cold front, but normally not as strong
  • Can maintain SHRA and possible TSRA if atmosphere remains unstable (upper level low)
  • Wind direction varies based on position of low
weather hazards
Weather Hazards
  • Winds
  • Ceilings
  • Visibility
  • Precipitation
  • Icing
  • Turbulence
ceilings
Ceilings
  • Clouds typically develop as saturation occurs at a particular level
  • Cloud base is dependent on the level that saturation occurs
  • Thickness of cloud cover is dependent on depth of the saturated layer
visibility
Visibility

Radiation Fog

Advection Fog

Typical ahead of warm fronts

Can occur with weak movement of warmer air over snow cover…can be prolonged

Strong low level inversion develops (warm air moving over cold air)

South or east component to the wind is favorable

  • Develops overnight with weak flow
  • Common under high pressure
precipitation
Precipitation
  • Need upward motion and moisture to develop precipitation
  • Precipitation type (RA, SN, FZRA, PL…) is dependent on the vertical temperature structure through the atmosphere
  • Depth of cold/warm layers determines if freezing/melting occur as precipitation falls to the ground
precipitation intensity
Precipitation Intensity
  • Determines visibility reductions in falling precip
  • Strength of upward motion and amount of moisture in the atmosphere helps determine intensity
  • 2 to 3 miles with light snow is common
  • 1 mile or less is common in heavy bands of snow
biggest taf challenges
Biggest TAF Challenges
  • Stratus or Fog?? Both?? Slight improvements/deterioration (eg. LIFR to IFR etc.)
  • Precipitation Type
  • Thunderstorm coverage
  • Thunderstorm timing
areas where icing occurs
Areas Where Icing Occurs
  • Most non-convective icing occurs in late fall through early spring
  • Significant icing potential increased in areas of:
    • Cold air advection
    • Relative humidity greater than 85% (the higher, the more potential)
    • Enhanced upward vertical motion (trofs, fronts, orographic lift)
  • Icing can occur anywhere super cooled water droplets come in contact with an aircraft surface temperature below freezing
  • 85% of all icing conditions occur in vicinity of frontal systems
turbulence1
Turbulence

Most common in cold season (fall-winter) as jet speeds increase

Associated with speed & directional shears (horizontal & vertical) - not just jet strength

Satellite clues and soundings can help

planning ahead
Planning Ahead
  • TAFs
    • TAF Trends
  • Forecast Discussion
  • ADDS Tools
    • Icing/Turbulence
    • AIRMETs/SIGMETs
    • PIREPS
  • Winter Weather Headlines
aviation forecast discussion
Aviation Forecast Discussion
  • Issued by most local offices that issue TAFs
  • Explains the reasoning behind the TAF
  • May also indicate confidence in the forecast and potential deviations that may occur
  • Can also help provide info for conditions between the TAF sites
aviation weather resources
Aviation Weather Resources

ADDS

Forecast Maps

NWS Chicago

CWSU (ZAU)

how you can help pireps
How You Can Help…PIREPs!!

-Limited observational data above the surface

-They help us with the forecast

-They also help other pilots

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/pireps/java/

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