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For Urgent Reforms. Project ‘Dacing’. How can BN be reformed?. National agenda Reforms Accountability Transparency New generation Grassroots. Political Platforms. Racial polemics Social contract Status quo Old guard Top-down. How can BN regain votes?. Objectives.
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For Urgent Reforms Project ‘Dacing’ How can BN be reformed?
National agenda Reforms Accountability Transparency New generation Grassroots Political Platforms Racial polemics Social contract Status quo Old guard Top-down How can BN regain votes?
Objectives For Urgent Reforms • To ensure Malaysia retains 2-party choice in future elections • To fully utilise opportunity for reforms within the government • To re-define the ‘Malaysian’ proposition given the new political context How can we lobby for change from the UK?
Measuring Success For Urgent Reforms Short Term Attempt to influence outcome of internal uncertainty Derive 100 days, 1 year plan Create critical mass of right people, right skills, right attitude pro-reform lobbyists Co-ordinate lobbying for reforms from the UK Mid Term Reform Barisan Nasional to ensure long term relevance Influence policies via suggestions, papers, surveys Long Term Help form ‘winning’ GE manifesto to give Pakatan Rakyat a run for its money
The Cost of Failure For Urgent Reforms If there are no reforms, BN has no future because: • MCA, MIC, Gerakan, PPP will fail as race-based parties if the PKR-DAP-PAS BR alliance delivers. • UMNO cannot form the federal government alone if the public completely abandon ethnic politics. • There is no incentive for PBS & other Sabah/Sarawak component parties to remain within BN. • Malaysian voters will default to Pakatan Rakyat • UMNO has to lead the way in reforming BN, as the reform of UMNO will force the reform of BN. • A relevant BN means a viable political system in Malaysia
Regardless of philosophy, people still vote according to ethno-centric lines in Malaysia. • There is, however, significant growth in ‘Malaysian Malaysia’ voters- which must be captured within BN- thus requiring drastic reforms to adapt to the new trends.
2004 GE Results For Urgent Reforms Premesh Chandran, Malaysiakini
2008 GE Results For Urgent Reforms Premesh Chandran, Malaysiakini
The Malay Voter For Urgent Reforms • UMNO must retain role as defender of Malay rights • Primacy of Islam, Malay rulers, Malay language as bastions of ‘Ketuanan Melayu’ • Reform UMNO leadership, purge corruption • Encourage debate & greater democracy within UMNO to reduce grassroots frustration • Review execution of National Economic Policy • Cost of living amongst low income families • UMNO must publicly & visibly outline an inclusive future engagement strategy with other BN partners on definitions of ‘Ketuanan Melayu’ & ‘Islamic state’. UMNO must also stop ‘us’ vs ‘them’ within BN
The Chinese Voter For Urgent Reforms • UMNO must increase willingness to ‘respect’ MCA • MCA has done mostly the right things, e.g. 52% new faces, but perception exists of a ‘running dog’ • Review current implementation NEP • Clarity on pan-BN definition of ‘Islamic ‘state • Mandatorised ‘third language’ in national schools might depoliticise Chinese education • Improved attractiveness of civil service • Feasibility of MCA + MIC + Gerakan + PPP = enlarged ‘Gerakan’ must not be perceived as ‘opportunistic’ & should be a function of rate of reforms within UMNO
The Indian Voter For Urgent Reforms • UMNO must increase willingness to ‘respect’ MIC • Total refresh & re-energising of MIC required • Acknowledgement of the ‘forgotten’ race • Release Hindraf 5 & annul ISA charges • Review current implementation of NEP • Issues concerning ‘illegal’ places of worship • Remove a/l & a/p as symbolic move • Enhanced infrastructure & education aid to estates • Feasibility of MCA + MIC + Gerakan + PPP = enlarged ‘Gerakan’ must not be perceived as ‘opportunistic’ & should be a function of rate of reforms within UMNO
The East Malaysian Voters For Urgent Reforms • UMNO must increase willingness to ‘respect’ EM • Greater autonomy for East Malaysia • Celebrate Hari Malaysia as 16 Sept 1963, in addition to Hari Merdeka on 31 Aug 1957 • Increase in % of state royalties on natural resources • Focus on social welfare such as infrastructure development, education, access to healthcare • Increase representation in Federal Cabinet • Real feasibility of resurgent & consolidated East Malaysian bloc within BN regardless of UMNO
The Malaysian Voter For Urgent Reforms • Gerakan Vs PKR + DAP = Crowded field • Immediate review of ISA, OSA, AUKU + form bi-partisan committee to govern administration • Affirming the independence of the Judiciary • Self-regulation of govt media via market forces • Hold BN politicians fully accountable for actions/words • Emphasis on meritocracy, efficiency • BN must prove it can cater to the Malaysian voter by acting fast on the above-mentioned.
Which is the required BN formula? For Urgent Reforms • Which are the ‘politically’ acceptable definitions of contentious issues? • It is good to have a vision on ‘Malaysian Malaysia’, but can BN ensure a smooth transition? • Is Pakatan Rakyat moving too quickly? No sign yet. • Deliberate common platform connecting all 5 types of voters is required to connect all ethnocentric with non-ethnocentric voters within BN • Thus, BN must radically enhance its structure as a common bridge & improve intra & inter-component engagement!
Strategy I- Status Quo For Urgent Reforms • Strengthen base in Sabah, Sarawak, Perlis, Terengganu • Recognise non-Malays as swing votes • Regain Perak, Kedah through grassroots • Potentially write-off liberal votes in Selangor, Penang, WP • U: Further losses amongst liberal reformers • D: PR sum of parts> BN (in status quo) • C: BN will still win GE but is merely delaying a solution to the fundamental problems • Status Quo + new engagement mechanism between UMNO & non-Malay components + full public accountability might work. No low ball mud-slinging!
Strategy II- Ultra-M For Urgent Reforms • Strengthen proposals to Sabah, Sarawak, Perlis, Terengganu • Trump up ‘Malay’ & ‘Islamic’ credentials + ‘Bumiputra’= Perpaduan ‘Ummah’ • Win Malay heartland ,Write-off Selangor, Penang, WP • U: Reclaim bedrock of support, support from Royals • D: PAS is more ‘Islamic’ than UMNO, yet is also reaching out to non-Muslims • C: BN will be irrelevant due to permanent desertion of non-Malay votes • Though ‘perpaduan Ummah’ is compelling, Ultra-M will defy Malaysian Agenda & embolden radicals potential source of great instability.
Strategy III- Tri-Balance Dissolve all non-Malay parties to form 1 party to increase leverage with UMNO Check & balance exists in Barisan Nasional U: Appeals to reformers & the liberals D: ‘Us’ Vs ‘Them’ A convenient UMNO bogeyman? C: Middle-road, triumvirate balance- PR, UMNO, BN (non-Malay) Though a gradual transition to a non-ethnocentric BN, perceived Non-Malay ‘ganging-up’ might force UMNO to be dangerously reactive. For Urgent Reforms
Strategy IV- Total Reform For Urgent Reforms • Dissolve all parties, Integration into one ‘BN’ • Appeasement of Malay heartland via visionary • Consultation & involvement of the Royals • U: Appeals to reformers & the liberals • D: Risks losing conservative Malay support • C: Trend: liberal growth rate> conservatism • BN can adopt 1-2 years ‘wait & see’ approach on Pakatan Rakyat’s ‘Malaysian Malaysia’ play. However, even if BN applies Total Reform, it might only ‘internalise’ racial politics.
Should BN fully ‘parrot’ PR? For Urgent Reforms No- BN has many positives which are salvageable How to accommodate non-ethnocentric liberals in a race-based sub-structure ? Will UMNO see the bigger ‘Malaysian’ picture? Will BN cease fear-mongering? Can the new PM bring strict discipline to BN-leaders? Can the bridge between DAP & PAS stand the test of time? Who can replace DSAI? Was it easier to point at faults of BN than to actually administer?
What is Project Dacing? For Urgent Reforms Form BN London as test-trial, with strong focus on autonomy in lobbying Export format if successful to all decentralised overseas branches Break down walls between UMNO, MCA & MIC at grassroots level to cater to ethno-centric leanings Strengthen independent component catering to ‘Malaysian’ voters with focus on bi-partisan engagement, discussion & debate
Tactics I- Internal Governance Tactics I- Internal Governance For Urgent Reforms • Strengthen internal governance & democracy within & amongst component parties (PKR, PAS & MCA (post 2003) as benchmarks) • 3-term leadership limit in all BN components • Streamline & further reduce Cabinet positions • ‘Whiter than white’ mentality Zero-tolerance for corruption, money politics, mid-term political crossovers, scandals • Review Party Whip system & introduce more publicly visible disciplinary processes
Tactics II- Economy For Urgent Reforms • NEP has to be revisited, but timing is important to avoid ‘parroting’ Pakatan Rakyat • Should NEP fully repeal quotas & increase ‘soft’ training & skills enhancement? • Oversell transparency of GLCs via public media • How to tackle inflation without falling to populist traps? • Introduce minimum wage bill
Tactics III- Multi-racialism For Urgent Reforms • X-fertilisation of Executive Assistants, Special Officers, Political Secretaries (e.g. MCA minister supported by UMNO EA & vice versa) • Grassroots formation & registration of BN • Focus on Education, using civics as platform for open dialogue on faith, culture etc. • Decrease ‘closed door’ sessions by respective BN parties & step up on BN-oriented content
Tactics IV- Religion For Urgent Reforms • Reaffirm Islam as official religion of the Federation • Places of worship must remain apolitical • Remit on places of worship sits with bi-partisan Parliamentary committee • X-faith dialogue must be encouraged • All places of worship are treated the same regarding permits & control
Tactics V- Communication For Urgent Reforms • Tone down Utusan Malaysia/ resort to disassociation • Reduce mud-slinging & focus more on internal faults • Immediate public acknowledgement of previous PR blunders to draw a line to the past • Recognise importance of pre-empting negative PR via rigorous discipline & training amongst BN ranks • Media to be governed by market forces, shake-up of govt affiliated dailies & RTM to regain respect • Learn from ‘Youtube’ & ‘blogging’ campaigns by Pakatan Rakyat
Conclusions I For Urgent Reforms • BN must recognise structural failure in ‘content’ & ‘system’ rather than failure in ‘spin’ • Currently, there is still value in retaining BN’s existing ethnocentric sub-structures due to cultural diversity • A non-ethnocentric BN might not guarantee platform for genuine concerns of smaller minorities • There must, however, not be ‘us’ vs ‘them’ within BN • UMNO must drive open dialogue mechanism with all BN components, pivoted on mutual respect for debate & dissent • Non-Malay components should influence UMNO leadership contests instead of UMNO-bashing
Conclusions II For Urgent Reforms • There is no immediate rush to look into NEP review currently, let’s see how Pakatan Rakyat fare first as ‘first mover’ to deliver • BN must, however, have viable counter-proposal to Pakatan Rakyat stance on NEP by next GE • Immediate need exists to handle ‘perceived’ corruption within BN (esp. UMNO) • BN must be a good & effective Opposition & reduce gaffes such as post GE Penang UMNO demonstration • Bi-partisan special Parliamentary committees must be formed to govern civil liberties + media freedom, education, ACA & maybe religion
Conclusions III For Urgent Reforms • BN must strive to provide & revisit politically acceptable and substantial definitions of: • An Islamic state • Malay special rights • Governance within BN parties • Governance between BN parties • Bi-partisan co-operation with Pakatan Rakyat • All these can be made via open dialogue amongst BN component parties & marketed to the Malaysian public visibly to dispel notions of a bogeyman! • Gentlemen's’ agreements & promises made must be respected & visibly delivered
What can we do? For Urgent Reforms • Form BN UK- to ‘spark’ reform • Prepare qualitative strategic recommendation to act as reference • Issue note out to independent blogs, mainstream media CCing reformers • Establish new framework, guidelines & non-negotiable principles • Reconnect with younger generation
What are we offering? For Urgent Reforms • Engagement with emergent opinion formers • London-based neutral ‘rookie’ think-tank • Consultation & support for BN ‘e-campaign’ • Frontier reforms with ‘first-mover’ advantage • Funding, manpower & mentoring • No interference + aligned strategy! What do we require?