Foreign Exchange FOREX
1. Three Layer Structure of Forex Market Layer 1 RBI FEDAI Regulator IB Rate Prevail Layer 2 Bank to Bank Transaction Wholesale Market Segment Inter Bank Market or IB Market Operational Layer Merchant Rate Prevail Layer 3 Bank to Customer Transaction Retail Market Segment Merchant Market
2. How to Interpret Merchant Transaction Always Interpret Merchant Transactions with Respect to BANK. E.g. If an exporter approaches a Bank for selling FC than we will say Bank is Buying FC ( from the exporter)
3. Cash Flow Movement in Merchant Transaction Merchant Transaction Purchase From BankSell to Bank Exporter Importer Bank Bank FC Home FC HC Currency Customer Customer Exchange Rate: 1 Unit of FC = How many units of HC
4. How to Interpret IB Rate and Transaction 1 USD = 45.2031 / 45.2031 INR Base Bid Price Ask or Offer Price Price (Less Rate) (High Rate) i) In IB market Exchange Rate is quoted upto 4 Decimal places. Except in Japanese Yen (JPY) which is quoted up to two gits after decimal. ii) Market Maker Market User The Bank which gives quote The Bank which uses the given in IB Market. Quote In Exam the given IB Quote is the Exchange Rate quoted by Market maker (we will simply call it quote given by Market)
iii) Interpretation with Respect to Market maker : The market maker is ready to BUY at Lowest of the Quote i.e. 1 USD for INR 45.2030 and at the same time market maker is ready to SELL 1 USD for INR 45.2031 i.e. Highest of the quote. iv) Difference between BID Rate and ASK Rate is called SPREAD. (or Trading Profit). 45.2031 / 45.2032 Spread (Difference) i.e .0001
v) Interpretation with respect to Market User : The market user can only BUY at Highest Quote and at the same time market user can SELL at Lowest of the quote. The User bank can do this transaction in IB market on behalf of customer. Than this deal with customer is called Merchant Deal and it is arrived at by adjusting Exchange Margin to IB Rate. The market user can do transaction in IB market for their own purpose than it is called Trading or Speculation. This is a risky transaction.
vi) Interpretation of Abbreviation Offer Price (or ASK Price) 1 USD = 45.1550 / 45.1551 INR 45.15 50 / 51 Big Figure Small Figure Rule : • The offer price (Ask Price) should have equal number of digits after decimal as Bid Price. • Offer Price must be the next numeric after the bid and the quoted offer price should be the last digit.
SBI Market Maker BOB will Sell FC BOB Market User BOB will Buy FC Exporter (Inward Remittance) Bank will Sell FC at Lowest of the Quote SBI Market Maker BOB will Buy FC BOB Market User BOB will Sell FC Importer (Outward Remittance) Bank will Sell FC at Highest of the Quote 5. How to Calculate Merchant Rate
6. Adjustment Of Exchange Margin in Merchant Transaction Type of Merchant Transactions : Bank Exchange Margin (EM) Purchase Deduct Sell Add
7. How to settle Forex Transaction in IB Market For this purpose each party opens account in Foreign currency. Nostro A/c Vostro A/c Loro A/c My a/c with You Your A/c with us Third Party A/c These are A/c for settlement of interbank transactions. Example on the next slide : >
SBI CITI BANK HSBC MumbaiNew York London • SBI will call this A/c as Nostro with respect to CITI BANK. • CITI BANK will call this A/c Vostro with respect to SBI. • SBI will call HSBC as Loro A/c as it Nostro to CITI Bank. Summary : Bank which open cash credit in FC will call it Nostro and Bank where A/c is opened will call it Vostro.
Types of Authorizations ( License) In India RBI Gives 3 types of Licenses for dealing in FOREX Market. License Type of Transaction Category A IB Transaction Category B Money Changer + Export Import Transaction Category C Money Changer
8. Type of transaction in IB Market The definition of transaction depends upon two terms: Date of Transaction Date of Settlement DOS = DOT Cash/ Ready/ TT/ Value Today DOS = DOT + 1 BWD TOM DOS = DOT + 2 BWD SPOT DOS = DOT + 2 BWD +…. FWD BWD = Business working Day TT = Telegraphic Transfer
For Exam : In IB Market the exchange rate is quoted on SPOT Basis [ This means in exam, unless otherwise given IB Rate means SPOT basis transaction. All other transaction like Cash, TOM, FWD are derived from SPOT Rate.
9. Currency Point Convention i) What is market Convention (or ACI Convention) for writing currency pair. Each currency is identified by three capital letters ( USD, INR, EVR) and the first currency before oblique (/) is the ‘Base Currency’ after oblique is the quote or ‘Price Currency’. USD / INR 45.2030 / 35 Base Price Bid Ask
Academic World :BasePrice • 1 USD = INR 44.55 / 56 • 120 INR / USD • GBP / USD 90.20/21 • GBP / USD GBP 90.20/ 21
10. CROSS Rate It is an exchange rate where neither currency is USD. 1 FRF = How many INR ? 1 USD = 43.2550 / 43.650 INR Given rate for 1 USD = 6.0500 / 6.0550 FRF Conversion Therefore neither Base or Price Currency or price currency is in USD so this is an example of cross rate.
Short Cut For Calculating Cross Rate Case III Common Currency is in Base Side as well as in Price Side Rule We use inverse rate concept to convert this situation into either Case I or Case II Bid Ask × And × Bid Ask Case II Common Currency is in Price Side in Both Quote Rule Divide across by the currency which is going to be the Price in the Cross rate. Price ÷ Price Case I Common Currency is in Base Side in Both Quote Rule Divide Across by the currency which is going to be the Base in the Cross rate. Base ÷ Base
Square up or Square off The ‘Square up’ means taking exactly opposite transaction as compared to earlier transaction. For e.g.. If you bought $on SPOT Basis at 10:10 Am than a square transaction at 12 PM would be to Sall $. In this process you can make Loss or Gain as it involves Risk as the Forex market is Volatile.
11. Cover Rate : It is IB Spot Rate at which merchant transaction is covered in the IB market. That means if Bank Buys $ from customer in merchant transaction the cover transaction would be to Sell $ in IB market. Base Rate : It is an IB Spot rate (ongoing) which forms the basis for computation of merchant. In Exam unless Specifically mentioned Cover Rate and Base Rate are same and both represent IB Spot Rate.
12. Direct Quote, Indirect Quote, American Quote & European Quote World America Europe & ROW (Rest of the World) Direct Quote or European Quote : For one unit of Base Currency What is the Price 1 unit of FC = How many Units of HC 1 Unit of $ = How many units of ROW Indirect Quote or American Quote : 1 unit of HC = How many units of FC 1 unit of ROW = How many units of $
13. Currency Appreciation Currency Depreciation ( ) Currency Revaluation Currency Devaluation ( ) Currency Appreciation/ Depreciation depends upon Market Forces like Demand and Supply. Currency Revaluation/ Devaluation depends upon Forced Action by Regulatory Authority. % Change in the New Value - Old Value = × 100 Value of currency Old Value Always talk Appreciation or Depreciation with respect to Base Currency First.
14. Siegel Paradox Time t=0 t=1 1£ = 2$ 1£ = 1.8$ % Change in value of £ = 1.8 -2× 100 = -10% Depreciation 2 Time t=0 t=1 1$ = 1/2£ 1$ = 1/1.8£ % Change in value of $ = .5556 -.50× 100 = 11.2 Appreciation .50
As per Siegel’s Paradox, appreciation of one currency is not exactly equal to depreciation of another currency. In exam, we may ignore Siegel Paradox unless specifically asked for.
All these theory are used to calculate Forward rate or Expected Spot Rate by different market parity.
i) IRP (Interest Rate Parity) Basis = Interest a) This theory tries to establish equilibrium between Forex Market and Money Market. (Money market i.e short term interest rate instruments are bought and sold like commercial paper etc.) Alternative 1 Time = 01 USA 5% 1 $ 1.05 $ Alternative 2 Time = 0 1 India 8% 40 Rs 43.2 Rs If Exchange rate t =0 continues at t =1 alternative 2 gives more $ and hence opportunity for profit. But as per IRP theory, the exchange rate should be 43.2 /1.05=41.1429 If this Happens there is no opportunity available for profit.
b) IRP theory is used to calculate Forward Rate (FR) For this purpose we take today's Spot Rate and today's prevailing Interest rate (from market only). FR = SR × [ 1 + rq ]rq = rate of interest of quote or price [ 1 + rb ]rb = rate of interest of Base currency c) If IRP is not valid the arbitrage opportunity is not available. d) FR is an exchange rate which prevail today but settlement will take place in future. The Rate of currency of the country with high interest is lower wit respect to rate of currency of the country with low interest rate.
i) PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)Basis = Inflation Absolute form of PPP Relative form of PPP Relative Form of PPP : This Form of PPP helps to compute Expected Spot Rate (further SPOT Rate). For this purpose we require today's SR and Expected Inflation Rate of the two countries. FR = SR × [ 1 + Iq ] Iq = rate of inflation of quote or price [ 1 + Ib ] Ib = rate of inflation of Base currency
16. Computation of Forward Rate and how the forward quotes are expressed. a) FR = SR + Interest Differential between two countries (Converted into amount) b) Expression of Forward Quote : Outright FR SWAP Point (margin) Annualized Premium or Forward Point or Discount (in %) Outright FR : This is not directly quoted but it is derived using SR and Forward Point. This is an Exchange rate agreed today for settlement in future.
SWAP point : It represents interest difference converted into amount or simply it is a difference betweenoutright FR and today's Spot Rate. SWAP Point = Rate of - Rate of × SR × n Quote Base 12 Annualized Premium or Discount : This also represent Interest differences but expressed in %. SR × rq - rb or SR × rq - rb 1 + rb Exact Approx
17. International of SWAP point (or Forward Point) a) SWAP point should have similar number of digits as the Spot Rate has. (i.e. number of digits after decimal in SWAP point should be equal to number of digits after decimal Inter Rank Spot Rate) Whenever we are calculating Forward Rate we need to incorporate adequate amount of zeros into SWAP point before adding to or subtracting from. Remember that interpretation of SWAP point is required only when number of digits in SWAP point is less than number of digits in IB Spot rate after decimal. SWAP Value = SWAP Point 10N
b) In India SWAP points are quoted on month end basis and the quote is directly available up to 12 month. SWAP Point in India is Directly quoted for USD/INR and for Foreign Currency/INR it is derived using concept of Forward Cross Rate. c) SWAP Point or Forward Point is not an exchange rate but it is simply an Interest Differential. However when we adjustSWAP point with SR we get FR, which is an Exchange Rate. d) SWAP Point or Forward Point are quoted in Cumulative Style.
18. How to adjust SWAP point to calculate Forward Rate. (whether to add or subtract SWAP Point) a) If Plus sign is attached before SWAP point than it indicates that Base currency is at premium. ADD Similarly if Minus sign is attached before SWAP point than it indicates Discount. Deduct b) When no sign is attached before SWAP point than we need to decide whether to add or subtract. How to Decide ? IB Spot Rate : L – H ( Low – High) L - H SWAP Point H – L This Show Base currency isThis show Base currency is At premium ADDat Discount Deduct
19. Merchant Forward Rate IB Market Buy Rate for Bank Sell Rate for Bank IB Spot Rate Bid Side Ask Side SWAP Point Premium/ Discount Premium/ Discount Exchange Less Add Margin
20. How to calculate FR for Broken Period In India SWAP Point are quoted on month end basis (International it is quoted on whole month basis). The month is called FLAT date and all dates are called broken period. Steps for calculating FR for Broken Period: Step 1: IB Spot Rate ( Bid Side) Step 2: SWAP point up to last month. Step 3: Broken Period SWAP Rate : Last month - Next Month SWAP Rate SWAP Rate × Difference in Days No. of days in the month
21. Arbitrage in International Financial Market Hedging Loss Minimization (or mitigation) Mismatch in assets and Liability Buy and Sell or Sell and Buy (Same amount or quantity not necessary) Speculation(trading) Risky Profit Simply Buy and Sell or Sell or Buy Arbitration Objective : Risk Less Profit Operational Issue: Mispricing of assets either in the same market or between markets. Buy and Sell or Sell and Buy (Same amount or Quantity)
Arbitrage Currency Market (or Forex Market) Currency Market and Money Market When IRP is invalid than it gives opportunity for arbitrage. This type of arbitrage is called CIA (Covered Interest Arbitrage) Two Point Arbitrage Or Locational Arbitrage Or Geographical Arbitrage Three Point Arbitrage Or Triangular Arbitrage
Currency Market Arbitration • Two Point Arbitration: • Example SBI BOI • 1$ = 45.2030/31 Rs 1$= 45.2028/29 Rs BOI (Lowest Rate) Bid Ask 45.2028 45.2029 SBI (High Quote) Bid Ask 45.2030 45.2031 Buy Sell This Gap Provides opportunity for Profit
This example shows that two quotes should not overlap (or simply there must be a gap between Ask rate of one bank and Bid rate of another bank. Bid rate of one bank and Ask Rate of another bank If More Equal Less Than Arbitrage No Arbitrage No Arbitrage
Three Point Arbitrage Start with currency ‘A’ then go to Currency ‘B’ (sell A and Buy B). Then go to currency ‘C’ and finally come back to currency ‘A’ In this process if you end up more ‘A’ then you started with or simply if you can produce more ‘A’ at the end of arbitrage then initial investment then triangular arbitrage is possible.
1. Which currency should be chosen for initiating the arbitrage process. The currency in which the profit is reported. 2. Which market we should refer for action. First Create Buy Position (this will be either Synthetic or quoted market)
22. Forex Risk Management i) Forex Risk Management is about management of currency exposure. Exchange Risk (currency risk): Adverse movement of exchange rate. Exchange risk is nothing but deviation of actual Exchange rate with expected exchange rate). Exchange Exposure (Currency risk): Quantification of Risk (For magnitude or extent)
ii) Types of Risk (Exposure) Translation Risk This Risk arises due to translation of contractual transactions (asset and liability) in FC. No cash is involved. This involves Accounting Gain or Loss Economic Risk Or Strategic Risk, Or Operating Risk, Or Competitive Risk. This Risk arises due to change in exchange rate and it effects existing contractual transactions (including contingent) and all future contractual transactions. Therefore it affects operating cash flow and hence the valuation of firm. Transaction Risk This risk arises due to Settlement of contractual transactions (assets or liability) denominated FC. Cash is involved This is both Accounting and Cash gain or Loss.
Exporter Foreign Currency Receivable Risk : FC Value Decreases Balance sheet : Liability Asset ---- Foreign Currency Importer Foreign Currency Payable Risk : FC Value Increases Balance sheet : Liability Asset Foreign ---- Currency MMH (Money Market Hedge)
Hedging : Borrow Foreign Currencyequivalent to the Present Value of FC to be received. Convert FC to Home Currency Repay Loan in FC when you receive your FC payment. Hedging : Borrow Home Currencyequivalent to the Present Value of FC to be payable. Convert Home Currency Borrowing to FC. Deposit FC in the Foreign Country. Repay FC when the date of payment become due. When IRP Theory is not valid than only Forward cover and MMH will give Different Result.
Netting Vs Matching Matching : (Hedging Tool) Under matching process receivables and payables are matched in order to decide the net forex exposure amount. However transaction are settled separately and hence there is no transaction cost saving. Netting : Under this process payable & receivables are adjusted and net balance is settled. As a result of this no. of transaction is reduced and hence there is saving of transaction cost. Multilateral One-to-many One party receivable & payables with all other parties are adjusted and balance amount is settled. Bilateral One-to-one One party receivable & payables with other party is adjusted and balance amount is settled.
Note 24: Forward Contract (or Currency Contract) • Entering into a Forward Contract. • No Outflow takes place at t=0 except Minimum Transaction Charges. • Rate is agreed today for settlement at Future Date. • Three Information is required for calculating Forward rate for both product : • SPOT Rate , SWAP Point and Exchange Margin • Hedge Exporter Sell FC today on Forward Basis • StrategyImporter Buy FC today on Forward Basis