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Analysis of Frontal Systems and Atmospheric Circulation in Southeastern South America

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This study investigates frontal systems in southeastern South America and their atmospheric circulation utilizing a climate GCM simulation. It highlights variations in predictability and occurrence rates of significant weather events in southeastern and southern Brazil. Key findings include the large dispersion among simulation members in southeastern Brazil, a notable increase in sea level pressure, and the implications of these systems on precipitation prediction. Essential criteria for selecting cases of frontal systems and their regional impacts are thoroughly analyzed.

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Analysis of Frontal Systems and Atmospheric Circulation in Southeastern South America

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  1. FRONTAL SYSTEMS CLIMATOLOGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN A CLIMATE GCM SIMULATION Iracema FA Cavalcanti Luiz Henrique R. Coura da Silva Third Meeting of CoPis PROSUL/ IAI/CRN 055 Mar del Plata, Oct.2002

  2. SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL • LARGE DISPERSION AMONG MEMBERS • LOW PREDICTABILITY • OCCURRENCE OF ZCAS • SOUTHERN BRAZIL • SMALL DISPERSION • HIGHER PREDICTABILITY • FRONTAL SYSTEMS

  3. CRITERIUM TO SELECT CASES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS • SOUTHEASTERN: 20S-24S; 47W-43W • SOUTHERN: 25S-35S; 48W-58W • REDUCTION OF SPATIAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS. • INCREASE OF SLP ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS. • SOUTHEARLY MERIDIONAL WIND .

  4. CASE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCURRENCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL SIMULATED IN ONE INTEGRATION

  5. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM

  6. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE

  7. COND1 COND4 COND7 COND5 COND2 COND8 COND6 COND9 COND3

  8. SOUTHEAST 9 CONDITIONS 10 YEARS SOUTH

  9. NUMBER OF CASES FOR SONSOUTH

  10. NUMBER OF CASES FOR SONSOUTHEAST

  11. AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGIONSON 1990

  12. SON 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

  13. AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGIONMAM 1990

  14. MAM 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

  15. AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGIONDJF 1990/1991

  16. DJF 1990/1991 DAY -1 DAY +1

  17. AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGIONJJA 1990

  18. JJA 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

  19. AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHEASTERN REGION

  20. EXTREME CASES OF PRECIPITATION

  21. IN DEVELOPMENT • ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS • AND • ANALYSE THE CONTRIBUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS TO THE PREDICTION OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION

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