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The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc.

The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc. The electoral landscape: campaigns , platforms, likely outcomes; Lula’s legacy and shadow 2012-2016 New York, July 21 st 2010 P aulo Sotero BRAZIL INSTITUTE Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

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The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc.

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  1. The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc. The electoral landscape: campaigns, platforms, likely outcomes; Lula’s legacy and shadow 2012-2016 New York, July 21st 2010 Paulo Sotero BRAZIL INSTITUTE Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

  2. 2010 IS A DREAM ELECTION YEAR FOR A CANDIDATE RUNNING ON A PLATFORM OF CONTINUITY IN BRAZIL An enormously popular president A population seemingly satisfied with what has been achieved and with country’s prospects Impressive economic and social progress to campaign on A promising economic outlook A strong national coalition of mobilize voters

  3. Latest IBOPE poll, from final days of June , reinforced perception that the election is Dilma’s to loose • 45% believe she will be the next president compared to 34% for Serra • Dilma is the spontaneous choice of 22%, Serra of 17% and Marina Silva of 4%. Lula get’s 12%. • Dilma’s rejection numbers are lower than Serra’s • Dilma’s voters less volatile than Serra’s • She will have 40% of free TV time, compare to 30% for Serra PRESENTED, HOWEVER, WITH A CHOICE OF CANDIDATES, AS THEY WILL BE ON ELECTION DAY, VOTERS TIED THE RACE AT 39% ON THE FIRST ROUND AND AT 43% ON SECOND ROUND

  4. Factors that will affect race until Oct 3 • Extensive coverage on national TV • Free time on TV, from August 17 on • Impact of online media • Debates • Message and performance of candidates on the stump • A September surprise

  5. Factors that may not help define race if it remains competitive to the end and goes to a second round • The candidates economic platforms • Split of Marina Silva 1st round • Free TV time before Oct 31 • No votes: now 6%, 2006 8,3%, 2002 10.3%, 1998 18%, 1994 8.3%.

  6. Lula’s legacy and his role in the post-Lula government depends on who wins and with what sort of mandate Serra scenario: need to build a presidential coalition in Congress to govern Dilmascenario: 1st or 2nd round? With or without a mandate? Will Lula help her to be a successful president ? STAY TUNED!

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