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Climate Literacy Conference San Diego 18 Feb 2010. Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Stanford, CA kcaldeira@stanford.edu. How do we know anything?. Thought, intuition, interior reflection

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carbon dioxide chemistry and climate how do we know anything

Climate Literacy Conference

San Diego 18 Feb 2010

Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and ClimateHow do we know anything?

Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global EcologyStanford, CAkcaldeira@stanford.edu

how do we know anything
How do we know anything?
  • Thought, intuition, interior reflection
  • Unplanned direct experience
  • Family, friends, etc
  • TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots
  • Planned empirical investigation
  • Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information
can we trust our own experience
Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

can we trust our own experience1
Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

can we trust our own experience2
Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

how do we know anything1
How do we know anything?
  • What food to eat?
  • Which things are really dangerous?
  • Which investments are safe?
  • Whether human-induced climate change is a real threat?
  • Which energy technologies or approaches can really diminish climate risk?
slide10

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10

CDIAC

IEAall

A1B(Av)

9

A1FI(Av)

A1T(Av)

A2(Av)

2005

B1(Av)

8

B2(Av)

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Projection

7

6

5

1990

2000

2010

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

slide11

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10

CDIAC

IEAall

A1B(Av)

9

A1FI(Av)

2006

A1T(Av)

A2(Av)

2005

B1(Av)

8

B2(Av)

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Projection

7

6

5

1990

2000

2010

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

slide12

2008

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10

CDIAC

IEAall

2007

A1B(Av)

9

A1FI(Av)

2006

A1T(Av)

A2(Av)

2005

B1(Av)

8

B2(Av)

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Projection

7

6

5

1990

2000

2010

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

slide13

Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth

-1.1%

International Energy Agency, October 2009

slide14

2009

2008

Projection 2009:

Emissions: -2.8%

GDP: -1.1%

C intensity: -1.7%

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10

CDIAC

IEAall

2007

A1B(Av)

9

A1FI(Av)

2006

A1T(Av)

A2(Av)

2005

B1(Av)

8

B2(Av)

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Projection

7

6

5

1990

2000

2010

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; updated Raupach unpublished; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-Geo, in press

slide15

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

2000-2006

fossil fuel emissions

7.6

Source

deforestation

1.5

CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)

atmospheric CO2

4.1

Sink

land

2.8

ocean

2.2

Time (y)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

slide16

Ice core and instrumental records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Petit et al (1999)

slide20

Ischia, Italy

Map created by Norman Einstein

co 2 dissolving shells and skeletons

Low CO2= Native shellfish

High CO2= Invasive grasses

CO2 dissolving shells and skeletons

Hall-Spencer / BBC

Thanks, Jason Hall-Spencer

formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons

CO32-

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

CO32-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons1
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons

CO32-

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

CO32-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons2
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons

CO32-

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

CO32-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons3
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

CaCO3 (solid)

water dissolved carbon and shells and skeletons
Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons

CaCO3 (solid)

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

addition of co 2
Addition of CO2

CaCO3 (solid)

O

C

O

CO2

H2O

HCO3-

H

H

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

formation of carbonic acid
Formation of carbonic acid

H

H

HCO3-

H2CO3

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

CaCO3 (solid)

increasing ocean acidity
Increasing ocean acidity

H+

H

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

H

HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

increasing ocean acidity1
Increasing ocean acidity

H+

H

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

H

HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

increasing ocean acidity2
Increasing ocean acidity

H+

H

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

H

HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

increasing ocean acidity3
Increasing ocean acidity

CaCO3 (solid)

H+

H

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

H

HCO3-

attacking a building block for shells and skeletons
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons

H+

H

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

CO32-

H

H

HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

attacking a building block for shells and skeletons1
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

Ca

HCO3-

H

H

H

HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

dissolving shells and skeletons
Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

HCO3-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

H

H

HCO3-

dissolving shells and skeletons1
Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

HCO3-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

H

H

HCO3-

dissolving shells and skeletons2
Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-

HCO3-

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

C

C

C

C

O

O

O

O

HCO3-

Ca

H

Ca2+ (dissolved)

H

H

HCO3-

slide43

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide44

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide45

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide46

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide47

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide48

Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution,

and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

0

1

2

3

4

5

ΩAragonite

Corrosive

Optimal

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

slide54

QoriKalis, Peru 1978

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

slide55

QoriKalis, Peru 2002

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

slide56

1900

2000

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

slide57

WhitechuckGlacierWA, USA

1973

PELTOMS

1900

2000

2006

MauriPelto

slide63

With deforestation, CO2 is much higher but temperatures are slightly cooler

Atmospheric CO2

Temperature

Additional contribution from loss of CO2-fertilization of forests

A2

Effect of loss of carbon from forests

predicted role of forests
Predicted role of forests

Tropical forests cool the planetTemperate (mid-latitude) forests do littleBoreal forests warm the planet

slide68

Desire forimprovedwell-being

Conservation

Impacts on humans and

Demand for goods and services

ecosystems

Adaptation

Efficiency

Climate change & ocean

Demand for energy

acidification

CO2 in

CO2 emissions

Climateintervention

Low-carbonenergy

atmosphere

Forests, etc.

slide69

Happiness and GDP

usa

People in Philippines and Brazil

are just as happy as West Germans, Canadians, Japanese, and French

but use 1/10th the energy

Inglehart and Klingemann 2000.

slide70

American income (and energy use) increases,

but we do not become happier

Myers, 2004

how do we know anything2
How do we know anything?
  • Thought, intuition, interior reflection
  • Unplanned direct experience
  • Family, friends, etc
  • TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots
  • Planned empirical investigation
  • Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information