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Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14 Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html. Presentation Outline. 1. Introduction 2. One Assumption 3. Two Processes of Change

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slide1

Accelerating Change:

Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit

John Smart, President, ASF

Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA

Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

presentation outline
Presentation Outline

1. Introduction

2. One Assumption

3. Two Processes of Change

4. Three Foresight Studies

5. Four Foresight Skills

6. Five Foresight Domains

7. Global Trends

8. Twenty Year Scenarios

9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit

10. Group Discussion

© 2006 Accelerating.org

seeing the extraordinary present
Seeing the Extraordinary Present

“There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.”

- Gail Carr Feldman

© 2006 Accelerating.org

carpe diem
Carpe Diem

"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain

© 2006 Accelerating.org

we have two options future shock or future shaping
We Have Two Options:Future Shock or Future Shaping

“We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration studies foundation
Acceleration Studies Foundation
  • ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change.
  • We practice “developmentalfuture studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices.
  • Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

systems theory
Systems Theory

Systems Theorists Make Things Simple

(sometimes too simple!)

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

— Albert Einstein

© 2006 Accelerating.org

from the big bang to complex stars the decelerating phase of universal ed
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED

© 2006 Accelerating.org

from biogenesis to intelligent technology the accelerating phase of universal ed
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED

Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977)

Each month is roughly 1 billion years.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

a u shaped curve of change
A U-Shaped Curve of Change

Big Bang Singularity

Developmental Singularity?

50 yrs ago: Machina silico

50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds

100,000 yrs: Matter

100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.

1B yrs: Protogalaxies

8B yrs: Earth

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the mesti universe
The MESTI Universe

Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information

Increasingly Understood  Poorly Known

MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

physics of a mesti universe
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe

Physical Driver:

  • MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density

Emergent Properties:

  • Information Intelligence (World Models)
  • Information Interdepence (Ethics)
  • Information Immunity (Resiliency)
  • Information Incompleteness (Search)

An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:

Entropy = Negentropy

Universal Energy Potential is Conserved.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

eric chaisson s phi a universal moore s law curve
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

Ф

Free Energy Rate Density

Substrate (ergs/second/gram)

Galaxies 0.5

Stars2(counterintuitive)

Planets (Early) 75

Plants 900

Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)

Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5)

Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)

Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)

Jets (10^8)

Pentium Chips (10^11)

time

Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the infopomorphic paradigm
The Infopomorphic Paradigm

The universe is a physical-computational system.

We exist for information theoretic reasons.

We’re here to create, plan, manage, and discover.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

cosmic embryogenesis in three easy steps
Cosmic Embryogenesis(in Three Easy Steps)

Geosphere/Geogenesis

(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis

(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis

(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

(1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,

Developmental Systems Theorist

Le Phénomène Humain, 1955

© 2006 Accelerating.org

de chardin on acceleration technological cephalization of earth
De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =

Phase Transition”

© 2006 Accelerating.org

stock on metahumanity the emerging human machine superorganism
Stock on ‘Metahumanity’: The Emerging Human Machine Superorganism

Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, and other social animals are “superorganisms.” They increasingly can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.

Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the left and right hands of evolutionary development
The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”

Replication & Variation

“Natural Selection”

Adaptive Radiation

Chaos, Contingency

Pseudo-Random Search

Strange Attractors

Evolution

Selection & Convergence

“Convergent Selection”

Emergence,Global Optima

MEST-Compression

Standard Attractors

Development

Complex Environmental Interaction

Left Hand

Right Hand

New Computat’l Phase Space Opening

Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization

© 2006 Accelerating.org

evolution vs development the twin s thumbprints
Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints”

Consider two identical twins:

Thumbprints

Brain wiring

Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.

Development creates the predictable global patterns.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

marbles landscapes and basins complex systems evolution development
Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)

The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

how many eyes are developmentally optimal
How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?

Evolution tried this experiment.

Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, andcertain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

how many wheels are developmentally optimal on an automobile
How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile?

Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

evolution and development two universal systems processes
Evolution and Development:Two Universal Systems Processes

Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.

The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

two political polarities innovation discovery vs mgmt sustainability
Two Political Polarities: Innovation/Discovery vs. Mgmt/Sustainability

Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

humans are prediction systems
Humans are Prediction Systems

“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”

Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm ComputingFounder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute

Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the prediction wall and the prediction crystal ball
The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball

What does hindsight tell us

about prediction?

The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operations

research/ cybernetics/

think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality”

era of Futures Studies.

(Kahn & Wiener, 1967).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

three essential foresight studies futures development and acceleration
Three Essential Foresight Studies:Futures, Development, and Acceleration
  • Futures Studies
    • “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives)
  • Development Studies
    • “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes)
  • Acceleration Studies
    • “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

brief history of futures studies
Brief History of Futures Studies
  • 1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations
  • 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration
  • 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.)
  • 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International)
  • 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future
  • 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future
  • 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock
  • 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S.
  • 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden
  • 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation,
  • 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies
  • 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines
  • 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation

© 2006 Accelerating.org

four types of futures studies
Four Types of Futures Studies
  • Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)
  • Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)
  • Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)
  • Research-Predictive(Stable Developmental Trends)
    • The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and development studies
    • It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses
    • Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

slide34
Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me)Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network

Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is easily wrong.

A multi-biased network gives you a wider and deeper map of the possibility space. This will make you more adaptive, and may make you more foresighted.

Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and present, but very little thinking about personal, organizational, and global futures. Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias.

Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies, have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical. Consult the crowd but make your own decisions.

“You can’t get an unbiased education, so the next best thing is a multi-biased one.”

 Buckminster Fuller

© 2006 Accelerating.org

where are the u s college courses in foresight development
Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development?
  • Tamkang University
  • 27,000 undergrads
  • Top-ranked private university in Taiwan
  • Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.
  • Why not here?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

graduate foresight programs futures studies sts roadmapping
Graduate Foresight Programs:Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping
  • Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs)
  • Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs)
  • Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998).

Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early for foresight specializations.

Tech roadmapping is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992).

Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Development and Acceleration Studies.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

human development studies sequential growth stages
Human Development Studies:Sequential Growth Stages

Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

gilligan s stages of female moral development
Gilligan’s Stages of Female Moral Development

Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional. This is reasonably good research.

Carol Gilligan

© 2006 Accelerating.org

debser s stages of cultural development
Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development

Some stage conceptions have less evidence at present, but remain good candidates for further research.

Eugene Debser

© 2006 Accelerating.org

maslow s hierarchy of self needs development smart s hierarchy of technoeconomic development
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs DevelopmentSmart’s Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development

Biological Learning Stages

Technological Learning Stages

Self-transcendence

(Religion & Death)

Biotranscension Society

Digital Twin IT Society

Valuecosm IT Society

Network IT Society

Manufacturing Society

Agricultural Society

/ Self-expression

/ Self-identity

/ Property

© 2006 Accelerating.org

developmental windows
Developmental Windows
  • In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child?

Zerotothree.org

What will tomorrow’s for-profit daycare chains be like?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

something curious is going on
Something Curious Is Going On

Unexplained.

(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

henry adams 1909 the first singularity theorist
Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist”

The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities."

Wild speculation or computational reality?

Still too early to tell, at present.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration studies our historical understanding of accelerating change
Acceleration Studies: Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change

In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsicallyacceleratingprogress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II,1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human-engineered accelerating progress models.

Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations.It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicionby a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the technological singularity hypothesis
The Technological Singularity Hypothesis

Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.”

The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the developmental spiral
The Developmental Spiral
  • Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago
  • Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs
  • Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs
  • Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs
  • Empires Age 2,500 yrs
  • Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770)
  • Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950)
  • Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020)
  • Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050)
  • Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060)
  • Tech Singularity ≈ 2060

© 2006 Accelerating.org

four pre singularity subcycles
Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?
  • A 30-yearcycle, from 1990-2020
    • 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.
  • A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040
    • CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.
  • A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050
    • CUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.
  • 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy
    • Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

macrohistorical singularity books
Macrohistorical Singularity Books

The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998

Singularity 2130 ±20 years

Trees of Evolution, 2000

Singularity 2080 ±30 years

© 2006 Accelerating.org

macrohistorical singularity books49
Macrohistorical Singularity Books

The Singularity is Near, 2005

Singularity 2050 ±20 years

Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003

Singularity 2050 ±10 years

© 2006 Accelerating.org

unreasonable effectiveness and efficiency of science and the microcosm wigner and mead
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm: Wigner and Mead

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics.

Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VLSI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.

W=(1/2mv2)

F=ma

E=mc2

F=-(Gm1m2)/r2

In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the nbic report and conferences
The NBIC Report and Conferences

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:

Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science

Edited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report)

www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/

© 2006 Accelerating.org

nbics 5 choices for strategic technological development
“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development
  • Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology)
  • Biotech (biotechnology, health care)
  • Infotech (computing and comm. technology)
  • Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors)
  • Sociotech (remaining technology applications)

Nanotech and Infotech drive the other accelerations, and follow unique MEST-efficiency developmental dynamics.

It is a common trap to spend excessive R&D, mfg, marketing funds on too-early technology in any NBICS category. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless, fiber (Global Crossing, 1990’s)

It is almost as common to spend disproportionately on older, less centrally accelerating technologies.

Every technology has an ideal time and place for innovation and diffusion.

Be aware of both first and second mover advantages.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

example holey optical fibers
Example: Holey Optical Fibers
  • Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
  • This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the nano and ICT revolutions.
  • Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.

Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

tech roadmappers carefully watch efficiency cost capacity curves
Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves!

“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson

© 2006 Accelerating.org

an electric future natural gas nanobatteries and plug in hybrid electric vehicles
An Electric Future: Natural Gas, Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption,

is the fastest growing and most efficient component.

180+ mpg Prius.

34 miles on battery only.

Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,

keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.

Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities.

“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the future of high density urban transport underground automated highway systems
The Future of High Density Urban Transport:Underground Automated Highway Systems

May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10X present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+)

“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

understanding the lever of nano and ict
Understanding the Lever of Nano and ICT

“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD

© 2006 Accelerating.org

hurricane control new dod nasa noaa security mission
Hurricane Control:New DoD/NASA/NOAA Security Mission?

Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 caused damage in U.S.

NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity.

“Controlling Hurricanes,” Scientific American, 10.2004

Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s).

In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados.

Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed).

23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground.

Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

a saturation lesson biology vs technology
A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology

How S Curves Get Old

Resource limits in a niche

Material

Energetic

Spatial

Temporal

Competitive limits in a niche

Intelligence/Info-Processing

No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration

1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate tobe far more MEST resource-efficient than the last2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition

Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time

© 2006 Accelerating.org

punctuated equilibrium in biology technology economics politics
Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…)
  • Eldredge and Gould

(Biological Species)

  • Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)

(income distribution  technology, econ, politics)

Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)

80% Equilibrium (Evolution)

Suggested Reading:

For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma

For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More

© 2006 Accelerating.org

two kinds of accelerations transformational punctuation vs efficiency equilibrium
Two Kinds of Accelerations: Transformational (Punctuation) vs. Efficiency (Equilibrium)

Business Week’s First Edition, October 1929:

  • IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”
  • PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco.

Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would continually transform itself while another would experience accelerating incremental efficiencies but, on the surface, appear unchanged?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

lesson maintaining equilibrium is our 80 adaptive strategy
Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy

While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this:

 Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.

 Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.

 Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.

 Build a national culture that rewards refinements.

Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz
Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz64
Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.

GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz65
Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz66
Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth?

Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60th largest country, and the 55th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.

NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz67
Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

acceleration quiz68
Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

Three minutes for Disney.Twenty minutes for Sony.

Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

world economic performance
World Economic Performance

GDP Per Capita in Western Europe,

1000 – 1999 A.D.

This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.

Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

oil refinery multi acre automatic factory
Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)

Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

understanding process automation
Understanding Process Automation
  • Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”).
  • Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth)“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
  • Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education
  • Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).
  • Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings.

Termite Mound

© 2006 Accelerating.org

automation and job disruption
Automation and Job Disruption

Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy.

  • America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China.
  • China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune)
  • Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial outputincreased by 50% since 1992. (Economist)

“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture.  Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated.  Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems.The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverseservices.  And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on the farms and the assembly line.”  Tsvi Bisk

"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003

© 2006 Accelerating.org

automation development always creates massive economic demographic shifts
Automation Development Always Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts
  • Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today)
  • Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today)
  • Automating of service is pushing people into servicenetworks (Network 2.0) (2003, 65% of GDP is service industry)
  • Automating of networks will push people into collective/self-expression (symbionts/valuecosm)
  • Automating individual and group values will push people into self-actualization (digital twins/ personality capture)
  • Automating ofself-actualizationwillpush people beyond biology (“transhumanity”)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

back to the greek future
Back to the Greek Future
  • Greece built an enviable empire on the backs of human slaves.
  • 21C humanity is building an even more enviable one on the backs of our robotic servants.
  • Expect machine emancipation, too.

“The more things change,

the more some things stay the same.”

© 2006 Accelerating.org

integral maps ken wilber s process quadrants
Integral Maps:Ken Wilber’s Process ‘Quadrants’

Computational Processes

  • We need foresight in all quadrants (processes and management tests).
  • All drive change.
  • None can be reduced to the others
  • There are no others as basic!

Management/Validity Tests

© 2006 Accelerating.org

types of intelligence gardner s eight frames modules
Types of Intelligence:Gardner’s Eight ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’

Gardner has developed research and metrics for eight different “frames” or “modules” of human capacity. A promising way to look at thinking.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

integral intelligence gardner s frames wilber s lines
Integral Intelligence:Gardner’s ‘Frames,’ Wilber’s ‘Lines’
  • Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)

Wilber proposes additional intelligence lines/dimensions on top of Gardner’s. I’ve mapped nine I see evidence for to his quadrants above. They fit nicely.

Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor that continually tries to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

four essential foresight skills innovating planning profiting and predicting
Four Essential Foresight Skills:Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting
  • Innovating/Creating (I)
    • tools and strategies for envisioning and creating personal preferred futures, science fiction, creative thinking, innovation, research and development, organizational leadership
  • Planning/Negotiating (We)
    • social networking, collective visioning, consensus building, risk mgmt (insurance), budgeting, hedging, strategic planning, enterprise robustness and resilience planning
  • Profiting/Adapting (It)
    • Entrepreneurship, management and decisionmaking (ERP, CRM, IT, HR, etc.), accounting, measured economic, social, and environmental benefits
  • Predicting/Discovering (Its)
    • soft to hard: environmental scanning, marketing research, business intelligence, scenarios, history of prediction, roadmapping, forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, risk analysis, systems theory and science.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

integral leadership
Integral Leadership
  • The best leaders are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice.

Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004

“Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs.”

Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

integral foresight development wilber de bono gardner ichazo jenkins jung myers briggs smart
Integral Foresight Development: Wilber, De Bono, Gardner, Ichazo, Jenkins, Jung, Myers-Briggs, Smart

 Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)

The Peacemaker (9) (Types A and B)

INTJ, ESFP (Integral Types)

Wilber’s Four “Quadrants”Smart’s Four “Foresight Skills”

Gardner’s Eight “Intelligences” (Multiple Intelligences)

Wilber’s Nine Additional “Developmental Lines” (Smart’s Interpretation)Ichazo/Naranjo’s (Enneagram) Nine “Personality Types”, (Subtyped by Jenkin’s Type A/Type B Classifiers

Myers-Briggs Sixteen Personality Types (Jung’s 4 Mental Functions, 2 Orientations, and 2 Processes).

Fourteen of the sixteen M-B types weight to one of the four quadrants by possessing both its function and its orientation or process. Note that there are eight M-B “manager” (the most prevalent), three “creator” types, three “discoverer” types, and two “integral” types.

This seems a good reflection of these skills and prevalence in the general population.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

integral systems five systems of human computation dialogs
Integral Systems:Five Systems of Human Computation (“Dialogs”)
  • Universal (Technology, Computation) (Attractor)

Question: Which is unlike the others? The universal system is growing apparently asymptoticallyin local capacities, affecting all the others.

These five systems/dialogs may exist on all Earth-like planets (e.g., be astrobiologically developmental).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

three hierarchical systems of social change
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
  • Technological(dominant since 1920-50)

“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed)

  • Economic(dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)

“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

  • Political/Cultural(dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)

“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Developmental Trends:

1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”

2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.

Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

smart s laws of technology
Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.

(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development)

3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

classic predictable accelerations moore s law
Classic Predictable Accelerations:Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost.

This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!

There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

transistor doublings 2 years
Transistor Doublings (2 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

© 2006 Accelerating.org

processor performance 1 8 years
Processor Performance (1.8 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

© 2006 Accelerating.org

dram miniaturization 5 4 years
DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

© 2006 Accelerating.org

dickerson s law solved protein structures as a moore s dependent process
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process

Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech:

Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960)

Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.

Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

many tech capacity growth rates are independent of socioeconomic cycles
Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles

There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace…

Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory. (“MEST compression is a rigged game.”)

Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999

© 2006 Accelerating.org

it s exponential economics
IT’s Exponential Economics

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

© 2006 Accelerating.org

automation and the service society
Automation and the Service Society

Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1

© 2006 Accelerating.org

angus maddison s phases of capitalist development 1982
Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982*

*Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03

© 2006 Accelerating.org

network economy 1 0
Network Economy 1.0

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today,

the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

network economy 1 0100
Network Economy 1.0

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today,

the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?

A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, and other continually emigrating (“brain drain”) nations.

Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

tools for networking 1 0 social network analysis
Tools for Networking 1.0:Social Network Analysis

Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks.

“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004

© 2006 Accelerating.org

networking books
Networking Books

Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003

Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003

© 2006 Accelerating.org

create your own network consider ben franklin s junto
Create Your Own Network:Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto
  • Met every Friday. The group invented:
    • the first subscription library in North America
    • the most advanced volunteer fire department
    • the first public hospital in Pennsylvania,
    • an insurance company, a constabulary,
    • improved streetlights, paving
    • the University of Pennsylvania.
  • Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks.
    • Scientist
    • Inventor
    • Businessman
    • Statesman

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the voluntary future
The Voluntary Future

Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.

Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

many accelerations are either 1 underwhelming or 2 logistic s curves
Many Accelerations are either:1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves)

Some Underwhelming Exponentials:

  • Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)
  • Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years.
  • Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).
  • Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)

BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004

© 2006 Accelerating.org

saturation example 1 total world population
Saturation Example 1: Total World Population

Positive feedback loop:Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics,

Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics,

Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

so what stopped the growth
So What Stopped the Growth?

© 2006 Accelerating.org

saturation example 2 total world energy use
Saturation Example 2:Total World Energy Use

DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since.

Saturation factors:

1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)

2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new

generation of technological system

3. Saturation of human population and

human needs for tech transformation

Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures.

Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand.

Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in ways very few of us currently understand.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

global energy use saturation energy consumption per capita
Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita

When per capita GDP reaches:

• $3,000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off,

• $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed,

• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met,

• $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy.

Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP.

Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001

© 2006 Accelerating.org

accelerating ephemeralization and the increasingly weightless economy
Accelerating Ephemeralization and the Increasingly Weightless Economy

In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)

Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.

In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance”

This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

empire progression an undeniable west east trajectory
Empire Progression: An Undeniable West-East Trajectory

Japan

(Temporary: Pop density,

Few youth, no resources.

East Asian Tigers

(Taiwan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore)

India

China

Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources,

stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.

American

BHR-1, 2002

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the symbiotic age
The Symbiotic Age

A coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:

  • A time when computers “speak our language.”
  • A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.
  • A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.
  • A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the start of symbiosis the digital era
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era

With the advent of the transistor(June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged.

New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization.

“The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent.”

We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems.

Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998

© 2006 Accelerating.org

an ict attractor the conversational user interface cui
An ICT Attractor:The Conversational User Interface (CUI)
  • Google’s cache (2002)
  • As we watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020…
  • Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech

© 2006 Accelerating.org

why will most of us want to use an agent interface digital twin in 2020
Why Will Most of Us Want to Use An “Agent Interface/Digital Twin” in 2020?

Ananova, 2002

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

© 2006 Accelerating.org

social software lifelogs
Social Software, Lifelogs

Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it). Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.

Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the valuecosm
The Valuecosm
  • Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder)
  • Datacosm (Sterling)
  • Valuecosm (Smart)
  • Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
  • Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
  • Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions
  • Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
  • Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
  • Early Examples: Social Network Media

© 2006 Accelerating.org

your digital you digital twin
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

“I would never upload my consciousness

into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”

When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.

Greg Panos (and Mother)PersonaFoundation.org

© 2006 Accelerating.org

personality capture
Personality Capture

In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.

No other credible long term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

ai in the interface a k a ia
AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”)

• AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003)

  ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12%

― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong

― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing

faster than decision support and agents

― Incremental enhancement of existing apps

(online catalogs, etc.)

• Computer telephony (CT) making strides

(Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys).

ASR and TTS improve. Expectdedicated DSPson the desktopafter central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)

• Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI)

Persuasive Computing, and

Personality Capture

© 2006 Accelerating.org

human competitive machine intelligence automated trading comes of age
Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence: Automated Trading Comes of Age
  • As of 2005, automated computer trading models (algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now execute more than half of all U.S. stock trades.
  • From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC let go of half their human traders, while increasing trading volume 160%.
  • All major brokers are spending millions on this technology. Minor brokers coming next.
  • We are now seeing the beginning of the AI Age in the financial community.

BusinessWeek, 4.18.2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

longer term scenario solar energy
Longer Term Scenario: Solar Energy
  • Twenty to fifty year development horizon.
  • 5-10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%.
  • Need great, cheap energy storage systems.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

ubiquitous sensing geospatial web and accelerating public transparency
Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and Accelerating Public Transparency

David Brin’s “Panopticon”

The Transparent Society, 1998

Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency

© 2006 Accelerating.org

mest compression as a developmental attractor don t bet against it
MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It!

Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech?

Inventor: Hokan Colting

21stCenturyAirships.com

180 feet diameter. Autonomous.

60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)

Permanent geosynch. location.

Onboard solar and navigation.

A “quarter sized” receiver dish.

Q2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world?

Latency, bandwidth, launch costs.

MEST compression always wins.

Q1: Which apps have been discussed?

Border monitoring

City monitoring

Urban broadband

Early warning radar

© 2006 Accelerating.org

tomorrow s fastspace user created 3d persistent worlds
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds
  • Future Salon in Second LifeStreaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

u s transcontinental railroad promontory point fervor
U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor

Built mostly by hard-working immigrants

The Network of the 1880’s

© 2006 Accelerating.org

it globalization 2000 2020 promontory point revisited
IT Globalization (2000-2020):Promontory Point Revisited

The more things change,

the more some things stay the same.

The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones.

In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one.

Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education:Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

information age staggered closing of global divides
Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides
  • Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom
  • Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*.
  • Education divide may close next (post-CUI)
  • Power divide likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains.

*World Bank, 2005

© 2006 Accelerating.org

new business ia social network idea 24 7 affordable tech education
New Business IA/Social Network Idea: 24/7 Affordable Tech Education

From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers

80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India)

+ 140 million U.S. labor force (2000).

+ Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems

+ Commodity communications costs

+ PC transparency software (Gotomypc)

+ Trust (Privacy)

= 24/7 Tech Education

How soon? Watch Dell…

© 2006 Accelerating.org

our generation s theme
Our Generation’s Theme

First World Saturating

Third World Uplifting

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the pentagon s new map
The Pentagon’s New Map

A New Global Defense Paradigm

© 2006 Accelerating.org

shrinking the disconnected gap
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap

The Computational “Ozone Hole”

© 2006 Accelerating.org

robo sapiens
Robo sapiens

“Huey and Louey”

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2

(Something very cool about this algorithm…)

Aibo Soccer

© 2006 Accelerating.org

a prediction the sputnik of networking 2 0 society
A Prediction: The Sputnik of Networking 2.0 Society

Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0?This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

a networking 2 0 strategic proposal innovate collaborate and fight for 40
A Networking 2.0 Strategic Proposal: Innovate, Collaborate, and “Fight for 40%”
  • IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company) laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership.
  • Is this a true innovation partnership?
  • We can make the deal so interdependent that it must be.
  • Technology interdependence runs ahead of corporate interdependence which then leads political interdependence today globally. (Not usually the reverse).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

our greatest strategic interest managing globalization
Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization

“America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.”

Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

globalization management
Globalization Management

Backlash forces have to be kept in check by:

  • Global tech innovation and diffusion
  • Global economic growth
  • Global political
    • accountability
    • transparency
    • fair policies
    • minimal government (maximizing tech and economic development)
    • security

© 2006 Accelerating.org

interdependency development metrics
Interdependency/Development Metrics
  • Core Countries
    • Tech, Econ, Cultural Exchange Bandwidth
    • Guest Worker Programs/Visa Reform
  • Gap Countries
    • Child and Infant Mortality Rates (Lagging Indicators)
      • “The primary global currencies by which the “quick and privileged” negotiate change with the “slower and deprived” (Pete Lantz)
    • Infrastructure
    • Information Access (Culturally Appropriate)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

s curves and creative destruction
S-Curves and Creative Destruction

© 2006 Accelerating.org

taiwan s example
Taiwan’s Example
  • Taiwan has one of the highest degrees of economic creative destruction in the world.
  • Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction).
  • Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world.
  • Tamkang U. in Taiwan requires its university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies. (Coincidence?)

© 2006 Accelerating.org

digging the data mine epidemiology
Digging the Data Mine: Epidemiology

Greg Cole, UCLA, noticed:

  • Asian Indians have 25% of U.S. Alzheimer’s rates, but often equivalent heart disease.
  • Curcumin, the lipophilic dye in Turmeric (Indian curry spice) looks like Congo Red (which binds to Amyloid plaques.

Result: The most exciting new potential Alzheimer’s therapy in a decade.

"Curcumin inhibits formation of amyloid beta oligomers and fibrils, binds plaques, and reduces amyloid in vivo.," Yang F, Cole GM, etc., J Biol Chem 2005 Feb 18; 280(7):5892-5901

© 2006 Accelerating.org

globalized health care
Globalized Health Care

When will we see the first HMO willing to fly its patients globally for procedures?

To train international physicians in a global health care network?

International ‘medical tourism’ is already a booming industry.

In vitro fert. in Israel: $12K vs. 90K in US

Heart surgery in India: $20K vs. 200K

And outcomes are often even better! (higher volume, more specialization).

There are huge political barriers but major opportunities as well.

4G Web: Personalized physician access 24/7, moving to preventative medicine finally.

Kaiser? Subspecialty HMO leader.

© 2006 Accelerating.org

innovation and ip balance lessons of bose and microvision
Innovation and IP Balance: Lessons of Bose and Microvision

Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).

© 2006 Accelerating.org

the new paradigm out of individual control the wisdom of the well organized crowd
The New Paradigm: Out of (Individual) Control. The Wisdom of the (Well Organized) Crowd.

© 2006 Accelerating.org