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U of A Medicine Class of 2016/17 Career Planning Series. Eric Wasylenko MD BSc MHSc January 15, 2014. Objectives. Highlight past and current workforce planning efforts Contextualize planning efforts as a predictive tool for career planning

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u of a medicine class of 2016 17 career planning series

U of A Medicine Class of 2016/17 Career Planning Series

Eric Wasylenko MD BSc MHSc

January 15, 2014

objectives
Objectives

Highlight past and current workforce planning efforts

Contextualize planning efforts as a predictive tool for career planning

Review a few strategies that might have utility for career planning

Try to provide some helpful perspective, to allay concern

outline
Outline

Past efforts (what went wrong and right?)

Current modelling, reports and resources (singing their praises and notes of interpretive caution)

Context and forward-looking trends (“Who wants to be a futurist?”)

Finishing notes (with hints of floral and peat)

Discussion (the nitty-gritty)

declaration
Declaration

No conflicts of interest

This session is supported by the Alberta Medical Association

acknowledgements
Acknowledgements

Alberta Medical Association, Cian Hackett

Lynda Buske (CMA)

c3pr website http://cma.ca/c3pr

Frechette, D., Hollenberg, D., Shrichand, A., Jacob, C., & Datta, I. 2013. What’s really behind Canada’s unemployed specialists? Too many, too doctors? Findings from the Royal College’s employment study. Ottawa, Ontario: The Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada.

Alberta – former PRPC reports

National – former NAWG reports

just a bit of history
Just a bit of history

Alberta efforts and results

National efforts and results

Correct trajectory and initial amplitude, but little mid-course adjustment

Ongoing analysis and data efforts, but not informing nor driving policy until recently

current modelling and reports
Current modelling and reports
  • Royal College report on specialists
  • Ongoing work for primary care
  • CMA site:

http://cma.ca/c3pr.

    • This site has a wealth of data and reports on each jurisdiction and specialty, and analyzes the factors affecting workforce supply and need, historical and predicted trends, etc.
  • Based on the CMA’s Physician Resource Evaluation Template (PRET)
recent cma work
Recent CMA work

Arising from CMA General Council 2013, further work undertaken at c3pr to understand where there are jobs and collect this information into a collective and accessible resource.

Some slides follow (Lynda Buske) highlighting recent findings.

slide13

Projected physician supply

  • Using a stock and flow model, CMA annually projectssupply for a “status quo” scenario.
  • 1999 projections indicated a worsening of thephysician to population ratio.
  • Medical schools increased first year enrolmentdrastically since 1999 - by 78%.
  • Physician retirement slowed.
  • Net emigration went from -244 in 1999 to +77 in 2011
  • Projections now show a steady increase in physiciansper 1000 population.
projections to year 2030 pret
Projections to year 2030 (PRET)

102,270 licensed physicians in Canada by 2030

Half will be female (37% today)

Proportion over 55 years 36% (39% today)

Physicans per 1000 population increases 16%, FTEs increase 14% from 2013 to 2030

Gender work hours gap is narrowing

FPs 51% (unchanged from 2013 to 2030)

the near term futurist
The near-term Futurist

Aging population

Heightened immigration

More chronic disease (at all ages)

New technologies

Constricting budgets

Altered social norms

what might practice look like
What might practice look like?

People/Teams – no solo practices, PAs, more NPs, interdisciplinary teams

Resources (funding models), facilities and equipment

Global competition

Locations of care

Information/Communication relay

Chronic care – “fix” vs. maintain

Alternate providers and self-care, personalized medicine, private options

Technology (distance Sx, point of care diagnostics)

bigger picture
Bigger picture
  • What should we be doing (regarding production) from the view of:
    • Trainees
    • Training institutions
    • Society
      • Financial
      • Satisfying need
making decisions
Making decisions
  • Interests and aptitude
  • Current opportunities and projected future opportunities
  • Mitigating downside risks
  • Contextualize for your best view of your hoped-for life
    • Location, family, recreation, earning potential, academic, teaching, flexibility
making decisions1
Making decisions

Remember that what your 5 and 10 year horizon looks like may not adequately consider your future opportunities

Do what you think you will love to do

Self-analyze your personality and attributes – match them to your career aspirations

making decisions2
Making decisions

Contemplate the skills versus knowledge versus abilities interface

Pester your mentors and heroes

Optimize flexibility within the constraints of your chosen route

the l ong v iew
The long view
  • You have anticipated roles as healers, comforters and leaders.
  • Whether as clinicians, researchers, administrators, advocates, or teachers, society will need each of you.
  • While much is expected of you in return, your success benefits the society that pours resources into your development.
the long view
The long view
  • Your profession is favored by the privilege of societal respect and recognized value.
  • Create value within your role as a physician, now and throughout your career, and the rest will take care of itself.
discussion
Discussion

eric.wasylenko@albertahealthservices.ca