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Why ABoVE?

Why ABoVE?. Eric Kasischke, Scott Goetz, John Kimball, Michelle Mack. 6 October 2011 2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop.

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Why ABoVE?

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  1. Why ABoVE? Eric Kasischke, Scott Goetz, John Kimball, Michelle Mack 6 October 2011 2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop

  2. 1. Recent changes in climate are causing significant and novel changes to arctic/boreal ecosystems over large areas that have widespread impacts on society Permafrost thaw is leading to shrinkage of lakes and mobilizing frozen carbon (Photo: G. Grosse) Mountain pine beetle outbreaks have accelerated and are spreading (Source: Univ. of Alberta) The Slave Lake, Alberta fire in May 2011 was the second largest natural disaster in Canadian history (>$750 million) (Photo: National Post - news.nationalpost.com)

  3. 2. Complex interactions are the norm, with many critical feedbacks to regional and global climate Grosse et al. 2011 Large stocks of soil carbon Widespread permafrost • How rapidly will permafrost warm? • What are the impacts of permafrost warming? • Is there a methane tipping point? • What controls burning of organic soils in tundra, forests & peatlands? Photo: M. Kanevskiy

  4. 3. Addressing key uncertainties requires transdisciplinary research in a number of areas unique to HNL regions

  5. 4. Models of key arctic/boreal processes do not adequately explain current impacts nor can they project future impacts • Additional research is needed to • Address known areas of uncertainty (the known unknowns; e.g. ground-layer processes) • Identify novel and new patterns of landscape change and ecosystem reorganization (the unknown unknowns; e.g. tipping points) • Crucial data sets are needed to drive and independently to assess models • An integrated modeling approach is needed (e.g., the Community Land Model [left]) source: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm/

  6. 5. Remote sensing data are essential for addressing uncertainties and informing and assessing models

  7. 5. Remote sensing data are essential for addressing uncertainties and informing and assessing models Longer-term satellite image data (Landsat, AVHRR) New satellite systems scheduled for launch over the next few years (SMAP, IceSat2, OCO-2) NASA Earth Venture missions (CARVE, AirMOSS) Use of airborne remote sensing data to provide unique information products and to prepare for future missions (e.g., DESDynI and HyspIRI)

  8. 6. ABoVE provides a means to coordinate northern high latitude research conducted by a broad coalition of national & international organizations International Participation IARC, NRCAN NGOs ABoVE FWS, NPS, DOI CCRC DOD SERDP NOAA NSF PP DOE NGEE USGS YRB NCAR Monitoring/ Assessment Basic Research

  9. ABoVE Study Domain and Nested Design

  10. ABoVE Study Domain and Nested Design

  11. Possible ABoVE Timeline

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